New Zealand General Election 2020

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New Zealand General Election 20202023 →
Result in%
 %
50
40
30th
20th
10
0
49.1
26.8
8th
7.6
2.7
1
4.9
Otherwise.
Gains and losses
compared to 2017
 % p
 14th
 12
 10
   8th
   6th
   4th
   2
   0
  -2
  -4
  -6
  -8th
-10
-12
-14
-16
-18
+12.2
-17.6
+7.5
+1.3
-4.5
-0.2
+1.4
Otherwise.
Distribution of seats
     
A total of 120 seats

The 2020 New Zealand general election took place on October 17, 2020. The 120 members of the 53rd House of Representatives were elected .

Suffrage

The House of Representatives is elected according to a mixed-member proportional vote, i.e. a personalized proportional representation similar to the election to the German Bundestag . Each voter has two votes. In each of the 72 constituencies, one member is elected by majority vote.

The remaining 48 list mandates are distributed in such a way that the mandate relationship corresponds to the party vote ratio , whereby only parties are considered that have received more than 5 percent of the valid votes ( threshold clause ) or a constituency mandate . If a party receives more direct mandates than it would be entitled to based on the proportion of the party votes, the parliament is enlarged by overhang mandates .

Starting position

In the 2017 election , the National Party became the strongest party for the fourth time in a row, but lost slightly. The clear and only winner of the election was the Labor Party , which then managed to lead a government again after a nine-year break. After the election, Labor under Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern formed a coalition government ( Ardern cabinet ) with New Zealand First and the Green Party . The three following years were eventful and Ardern appeared again and again in worldwide press reports.

On March 15, 2019, a right-wing terrorist murdered a total of 51 people and injured another 50, some seriously, in an attack on two mosques in Christchurch . Ardern showed visible concern and empathy with the victims and tried to unite the shocked New Zealand society.

When the surprising volcanic eruption on December 9, 2019 on White Island , which killed 23 people, your guidance was asked again. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic also affected New Zealand. The Prime Minister ordered an extensive contact and curfew at an early stage. On June 8, 2020, against the backdrop of rising case numbers worldwide, she announced that there were "no active cases" of COVID-19 in New Zealand and that there had been no COVID-19 positive cases in New Zealand's hospitals for 12 days, so that the restrictions could be partially lifted again. However, the number of cases rose again later.

Although the Ardern government clearly failed to achieve the socio-political goals proclaimed in the 2017 election of abolishing child poverty and reducing homelessness and, to the annoyance of her coalition partner, the New Zealand Green Party, the prime minister was rather conservative in the socio-political area, such as those demanded by the Greens Strictly opposed to the special tax on higher earners, it continued to be very popular with the New Zealand public.

Parties and candidates

Parties

The following parties were represented in the House of Representatives before the election:

Surname Alignment Seats 2017
National Conservatism , liberalism 56
Labor Social democracy 46
NZ First Nationalism , right-wing populism 9
Green Green politics , social democracy 8th
ACT Right libertarianism 1

Top candidates

campaign

Party campaigns throughout 2020 were severely restricted by COVID-19, with the parties barely able to hold events due to the restrictions.

On September 22nd, Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins met in the first of four planned television debates of the top candidates on Television New Zealand . In the aftermath, experts saw Collins as the winner of the first duel.

Survey

Last polls before the election

Institute date National Labor NZ First Green ACT Others
1 News Colmar Brunton 14/10/2020 31% 46% 3% 8th % 8th % 4%
1 News Colmar Brunton 07.10.2020 32% 47% 2.4% 6% 8th % 4.6%
Roy Morgan Research 09/30/2020 28.5% 47.5% 2.5% 9.5% 7% 5%
1 News Colmar Brunton 09/27/2020 33% 47% 1.4% 7% 8th % 3.6%
Election 2017 09/23/2017 44.4% 36.9% 7.2% 6.3% 0.5% 4.7%
Older surveys (selection)
January - September 2020
Institute date National Labor NZ First Green ACT Others
Newshub Reid Research 09/23/2020 29.6% 50.1% 1.9% 6.5% 6.3% 5.6%
1 News Colmar Brunton 09/21/2020 31% 48% 2.4% 6% 7% 5.6%
Roy Morgan Research 09/01/2020 28.5% 48% 2.5% 11.5% 6% 3.5%
1 News Colmar Brunton 07/29/2020 32% 53% 2% 5% 4.8% 3.2%
Newshub Reid Research 07/24/2020 25.1% 60.9% 2.0% 5.7% 3.3% 3.0%
Roy Morgan Research 07/01/2020 26.5% 53.5% 1.5% 8th % 6.5% 4.0%
1 News Colmar Brunton 06/24/2020 38% 50% 1.8% 6% 3.1% 1.1%
Roy Morgan Research 06/01/2020 27% 54.5% 1.5% 9% 5% 3.0%
Roy Morgan Research 05/24/2020 26.5% 56.5% 2.5% 7% 3.5% 4.0%
1 News Colmar Brunton 05/20/2020 29% 59% 2.9% 4.7% 2.2% 2.2%
Newshub Reid Research May 16, 2020 30.6% 56.5% 2.7% 5.5% 1.8% 2.9%
Roy Morgan Research 04/01/2020 30.5% 55% 2.5% 7% 2.5% 2.5%
Roy Morgan Research 01.03.2020 37% 42.5% 3% 11.5% 3.5% 2.5%
1 News Colmar Brunton 02/12/2020 46% 41% 3.3% 5% 1.7% 3.0%
Roy Morgan Research 02/01/2020 37% 40.5% 5% 10.5% 3.5% 3.5%
Newshub Reid Research 02/01/2020 43.3% 42.5% 3.6% 5.6% 1.8% 3.2%
Roy Morgan Research 01/01/2020 40% 40% 2.5% 10.5% 3% 4%
Election 2017 09/23/2017 44.4% 36.9% 7.2% 6.3% 0.5% 4.7%
2017-2019
Institute date National Labor NZ First Green ACT Others
1 News Colmar Brunton 11/27/2019 46% 39% 4.3% 7% 1.6% 2.1%
Newshub Reid Research 09/10/2019 43.9% 41.6% 4.0% 6.3% 1.4% 2.8%
1 News Colmar Brunton 07/24/2019 45% 43% 3.3% 6% 1 % x%
Newshub Reid Research 07.06.2019 37.4% 50.8% 2.8% 6.2% 0.8% x%
Business NZ Reid Research 04/10/2019 40% 48% 4.3% 6% 0.7% x%
Business NZ Reid Research 03/23/2019 41.3% 49.6% 2.3% 3.9% - x%
Newshub Reid Research 02/02/2019 41.6% 47.5% 2.9% 5.1% 0.4% x%
1 News Colmar Brunton 02/14/2018 43% 48% 2.6% 5% 0.5% 0.9%
Roy Morgan Research 01/28/2018 39% 42.5% 6% 9% 0.5% 3.0%
1 News Colmar Brunton 05.12.2017 46% 39% 5% 7% 0.1% 2.9%
Roy Morgan Research October 15, 2017 46% 31% 6.5% 11% 0.5% 5%
Election 2017 09/23/2017 44.4% 36.9% 7.2% 6.3% 0.5% 4.7%

course

Surveys averaged over monthly survey results, from the 2017 election to the 2020 election

Seat forecasts

Institute date National Labor NZ First Green ACT
1 News Colmar Brunton 14/10/2020 40 59 - 11 10
Roy Morgan Research 09/30/2020 38 61 - 12 9
Newshub Reid Research 09/23/2020 39 65 - 8th 8th
Election 2017 09/23/2017 56 46 9 8th 1

Election result

Cartographic representation
New Zealand General Election 2020
Political party be right Seats
number in % +/- Direct
mandates 		List
mandates 		Overall
mandates 		+/-
Labor Party 1,169,397 49.10 +12.21 43 21st 64   18
National Party 638.393 26.81 −17.64 26th 9 35   21
ACT 190.106 7.98 +7.48 1 9 10  0 9
Green party 180.224 7.57 +1.30 1 9 10  0 2
Māori party 23,938 1.01 −0.17 1 0 1  0 1
New Zealand First 63,447 2.66 −4.54 - - -  0 9
New Conservative 35,954 1.51 +1.27 - - -  0 0
The Opportunities Party 33,718 1.42 −1.02 - - -  0 0
Other parties 46,295 1.94 - - -  0 0
total 2,381,472 100.0 72 48 120  0 0

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ a b 2020 General Election and Referendums - Preliminary Count , on electionresults.govt.nz
  2. ↑ 'I did a little dance': Ardern confirms New Zealand is free of Covid-19. BBC News, June 8, 2020, accessed October 17, 2020 .
  3. ↑ Jacinda Ardern's majority may prove to be her biggest challenge. BBC News, October 17, 2020, accessed October 17, 2020 .
  4. ^ New Zealand election debate: Collins edges it against 'passionless' Ardern. September 22, 2020, accessed on September 23, 2020 .
  5. ↑ a b 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll: Labor maintains strong lead over National, Greens climb , on tvnz.co.nz
  6. ↑ 1 News Colmar Brunton survey from October 7, 2020 , on static.colmarbrunton.co.nz
  7. ↑ a b Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern set to sweep to a 'crushing' election victory on Saturday , on roymorgan.com
  8. ↑ 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll 23-27 September 2020 , on static.colmarbrunton.co.nz
  9. ↑ a b NZ Election 2020: Newshub-Reid Research poll shows Labor governing alone as National languishes in the 20s , on newshub.co.nz
  10. ↑ 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll 17-21 September 2020 , on static.colmarbrunton.co.nz
  11. ↑ Roy Morgan Voting Intention 1st of September 2020 , on roymorgan.com
  12. ↑ 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll: Collins up as preferred PM, but National still in deep trouble , on tvnz.co.nz
  13. ↑ Newshub-Reid Research Poll: The destruction of National under Judith Collins as party sinks to 25 percent , on newshub.co.nz
  14. ↑ [1] , on roymorgan.com
  15. ↑ PM Jacinda Ardern on track for easy re-election as National's leader Todd Muller resigns after fewer than two months in the job , on roymorgan.com
  16. ↑ PM Jacinda Ardern ascendant as Labor support (56.5%) is now more than double National (26.5%) three months from NZ Election , on roymorgan.com
  17. ↑ 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll 16 - 20 May 2020 , on colmarbrunton.co.nz
  18. ↑ Newshub-Reid Research Poll: Jacinda Ardern goes stratospheric, Simon Bridges is annihilated , on newshub.co.nz
  19. ↑ a b c d PM Jacinda Ardern ascendant as Labor support (56.5%) is now more than double National (26.5%) three months from NZ Election , on roymorgan.com
  20. ↑ 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll 8 - 12 February 2020 , on colmarbrunton.co.nz
  21. ^ National and Labor neck-and-neck in new Newshub-Reid Research poll , on newshub.co.nz
  22. ↑ 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll 23 - 27 November 2019 , on static.colmarbrunton.co.nz
  23. ↑ Jacinda Ardern, Labor take massive tumble in new Newshub-Reid Research poll , on newshub.co.nz
  24. ↑ 1 news poll on July 24, 2019 , on static.colmarbrunton.co.nz
  25. ↑ Poll: National nosedives into dreaded 30s, could trigger leadership coup , on newshub.co.nz
  26. ↑ Colmar-Brunton-Poll April 10, 2019 , on colmarbrunton.co.nz
  27. ↑ Claire Trevett: Poll puts Labor support up after mosque attacks but tax is back in debate , on nzherald.co.nz
  28. ↑ National plunges to worst result in over a decade - Newshub poll , on newshub.co.nz
  29. ↑ PM Jacinda Ardern on track for easy re-election as National's leader Todd Muller resigns after fewer than two months in the job , on roymorgan.com
  30. ↑ New New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern enters Government with broad support , on roymorgan.com