Risk analysis in civil protection
The risk analysis in civil protection is a political decision-making and planning instrument of the federal and state governments, which enables a risk- and demand-oriented preventive and defense planning in civil and disaster control.
The risk analysis is a central component of risk management in civil protection in the Federal Republic of Germany. In 2009, the federal government enshrined the risk analysis in the Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance Act, Section 18 (ZSKG): The federal government, in cooperation with the federal states, is preparing a nationwide risk analysis for civil protection. The Federal Ministry of the Interior will inform the German Bundestag of the results of the risk analysis according to sentence 1 annually from 2010 onwards.
With the method of risk analysis developed by the Federal Office for Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance (BBK), risks can for the first time be recorded in a structured manner in the German system of civil protection and compared with one another. Until now, the determination of the probability of occurrence and the extent of damage, which only create a reliable basis for decision-making for risk and crisis management measures, has not been determined when determining the risks.
Basics of risk analysis
The method for risk analysis in civil protection is compatible with the guidelines drawn up by the European Commission and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and is based on comparable risk concepts.
The European Commission, in cooperation with the member states, has drawn up guidelines for risk analysis and risk mapping for disaster management.
The OECD developed a framework concept for disaster-related risk assessment and risk financing, which contains the risk analysis as the basis for comprehensive risk management.
The risk analysis as part of the risk and crisis management cycle
Risk and crisis management is a continuous process that consists of the steps of identifying, analyzing, assessing and handling risks. The risk analysis in civil protection provides the basis for decisions about possible preventive measures of civil protection and the basis for crisis management in the event of a specific incident.
The aim of the risk analysis in civil protection is to create a comprehensive, comparative overview of the various hazards and events with regard to their probability of occurrence and the associated, expected extent of damage. On the basis of such a risk portfolio, it can then be checked within the framework of risk management whether the existing capabilities to protect the population and their livelihoods are appropriate, and whether there is a need for action for measures identified as necessary. In addition, the results of the risk analyzes are to be used for appropriate risk communication between the actors in civil protection and with the population. Starting in 2010, the German Bundestag will be informed annually about the results of the risk analysis.
For civil protection, the results of the risk analysis are to be related to the protection goals, which have not yet been finally defined ( desired condition of a protected asset that is to be preserved in the event of an incident ), in order to determine whether civil protection in Germany is adequately dimensioned for all expected damage situations and is prepared or whether there is a need for action at the federal, state and local levels.
Conducted risk analyzes
The following risk analyzes have been carried out since 2012:
| event | scenario | Extent of damage | Frequency of occurrence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme melt flood from the low mountain ranges | Long-lasting, unfavorable weather conditions in late winter and spring lead to two waves of snowmelt floods on the Ems, Weser, Elbe, Rhine, Oder and Danube and their tributaries. Due to a strong thaw in the catchment areas, the structural flood protection facilities are flooded or they cannot withstand the enormous loads. There is massive flooding along the rivers, with a number of large cities being affected. |
Class C :> 100 - 1,000 dead
Provided that adequate evacuations take place, the number of deaths can be significantly reduced. Higher deaths are to be expected in the event of sudden dike breaches, attempted rescue measures or when removing objects from basements. Large-scale outages in the infrastructure occur, such as the electricity, gas, water, oil supply, transport systems, medical and food supplies. |
Class B : 1 × in 1,000 to 10,000 years |
| Pandemic by Virus Modi-SARS | The epidemic is based on a hypothetical new virus and is spreading worldwide from Asia. In Germany, there are three waves of infections before a vaccine is available after three years of the first illness. |
Class E :> 10,000 dead
78 million sufferers and at least 7.5 million deaths as a direct result of the infection. The economic damage is seen as immense due to the high number of victims. |
Class C : 1 × in 100 to 1,000 years |
| Winter storm | The entire federal territory is covered by two storms in the hurricane area (> 117 km / h) at short intervals, with peak gusts of 160 to 170 km / h in the flatlands and> 180 km / h on the coasts. The storm continues for three days. |
Class D :> 1,000 - 10,000 dead
Broken trees, objects flying around, traffic accidents and building collapses lead to numerous deaths and injuries. Extensive and long-lasting power outages affect more than 7 million people at times. |
Class C : 1 × in 100 to 1,000 years |
| Storm surge | A winter storm lasting two days leads to a very severe storm surge that hits the entire German North Sea coast, the Netherlands and Denmark. The highest water levels occur in Hamburg, Bremerhaven and Husum. The water levels do not exceed the dyke heights, but waves overflow, which causes dike breaks and flooding of the hinterland, sometimes with considerable damage. The storm caused long-lasting power outages nationwide. |
Class D :> 1,000 - 10,000 dead
|
Class A : 1 × in> 10,000 years |
| Release of radioactive substances from a nuclear power plant | A: NPP in the south of Lower Saxony (rural areas, summer, high pressure weather conditions)
B: NPP in the north of Baden-Württemberg (urban area, winter, high pressure weather conditions) The nuclear accident in a pressurized water reactor is triggered by the breakage of a steam generator heating pipe. This leads to a core meltdown with failure of the reactor pressure vessel and the unfiltered release of radioactive substances into the atmosphere over 2 days (around 10% of the radionuclides in the reactor inventory ). Evacuation of the inhabitants from an area of 680 km²: A: 90,000 B: 390,000 |
Class C :> 100 - 1,000
|
No classification
In the event of an incident, numerous independent safety mechanisms would have to fail at the same time, which is considered extremely likely. With reference to the nuclear power plant accident in Fukushima Daiichi in Japan, the reactor accident is assumed for emergency protection measures. |
| Release of chemical substances | At four different locations in different federal states, toxic chemicals are being released simultaneously by a terrorist group:
|
No classification
As a result of the events, more than 30,000 people are dependent on intensive medical care. In total, more than 7,000 people develop life-threatening symptoms |
No classification
"The probability of such a scenario occurring is beyond any predictability." |
| drought | The drought scenario analyzed extends over six years and is derived from the most extreme drought period in Germany to date from 1971 to 1976. To tighten the conditions, the amount of precipitation was reduced by 25% and the mean temperature increased by 1 ° C compared to the reference period. In the sixth year, compared to 1976, the mean daily temperature was reduced by 5 ° C in February and increased by 6 ° C in August.
Due to the low amount of precipitation, the soil moisture is reduced above normal and an agricultural drought occurs. |
Class D :> 1,000 - 10,000 dead
There are crop failures, forest fires, low water levels in rivers and reservoirs, local restrictions in the drinking water supply and power outages due to the shutdown of thermal and nuclear power plants due to low river water levels. The heat wave and cold spell lead to increased mortality / deaths as a result of:
|
Class C : 1 × in 100 to 1,000 years
The longest meteorological drought in Europe according to the drought index in the period from 1950 to 2012 occurred in 2003 with 11 months and resulted in 7,295 heat deaths. A return probability of around 450 years is assumed for this event . |
Risk assessment
The risk assessment deals with the following questions:
- To what extent is a previously defined protection goal achieved in the event of the investigated event,
- what remaining risk is acceptable and
- which measures can or must be taken to minimize the identified damage effects.
Social values and the respective risk acceptance flow into this decision-making process.
An overarching goal of risk analysis in civil protection is the comparative comparison of various risks from different hazards in a risk matrix as a basis for planning in civil protection. The different results of the risk analyzes are visualized in the risk matrix. It corresponds to the international standard ISO 31010, 2009 (p. 82).
The risk matrix contains a five-stage classification for the probability of occurrence and the extent of damage, which is used in the risk analyzes.
| Probability of occurrence / extent of damage | A: very unlikely | B: unlikely | C: Probably to a certain extent | D: probably | E: very likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E: catastrophic | pandemic | ||||
| D: big | Storm surge | Winter storm drought | |||
| C: moderate | Melt flood | ||||
| B: low | |||||
| A: insignificant | |||||
| risk | low | medium | high | very high |
Exemplary classification of the probability of occurrence :
- A: very unlikely = 1 × in> 10,000 years
- B: unlikely = 1 × in 1,000 to 10,000 years
- C: conditionally likely = 1 × in 100 to 1,000 years
- D: probably = 1 × in 10 to 100 years
- E: very likely = 1 × in <10 years
With regard to the extent of damage , a distinction is made between the following objects of protection, people, environment, economy, supply and immaterial, and each is divided into 5 damage values; people are assumed to be the object of protection:
- A: ≤ 10 deaths
- B:> 10-100 dead
- C:> 100-1,000 deaths
- D:> 1,000 - 10,000 dead
- E:> 10,000 dead.
The Federal Office for Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance comes to the following overall assessment of the risk analyzes carried out to date in the “Report on Risk Analysis in Civil Protection 2017”:
- The result of the risk analysis "Pandemic due to Virus Modi-SARS" shows that the greatest damage is caused to almost all of the protected assets (human, economic and immaterial) considered.
- The "winter storm" event causes the greatest damage in the environmental protection area.
- The natural events analyzed show greater overall damage than the technology-related events "release of radioactive substances from a nuclear power plant" and "release of chemical substances".
Hazard analysis in risk analysis at the federal level
The risk analysis at the federal level should only take into account those dangers that have a potential federal relevance, ie the management of which the federal government can be called upon in a special way within the framework of its (fundamental) legal responsibility.
Selection of dangers and events with potential federal relevance:
- Unusual epidemic events (e.g. pandemic / epidemic)
- Impairment / failure of critical infrastructures ( KRITIS )
- drought
- Events caused by plant pathogens and pests
- Extraterrestrial dangers ( solar storm , meteorite impact , space debris )
- Release of biological substances
- Release of chemical substances
- Release of radioactive substances
- Hot spell
- Flood
- Cold spell
- Low tide
- Seismic events (natural or induced, e.g. from mining)
- Heavy precipitation (rain, snow, etc.)
- Storm
- Storm surge
- Animal diseases
- Wild fire (forest fire, moor fire, heather fire).
Federal Ministry of the Interior, 2009: " Critical infrastructures (KRITIS) are organizations and facilities with important importance for the state community, whose failure or impairment would result in lasting supply bottlenecks, significant disruptions in public safety or other dramatic consequences. "
KRITIS sectors: energy, information technology and telecommunications, transport and traffic, health, water, nutrition, finance and insurance, government and administration, media and culture.
Development at European level
For a common framework for disaster prevention in the EU, the EU Commission developed recommendations for methods of mapping, assessing and analyzing risks together with the member states. These include European Commission guidelines for risk analysis and risk mapping for disaster management. In May 2017, the European Commission presented a report on the risk analyzes carried out in the 28 member states and 6 non-member states ( Overview of Natural and Man-made Disaster - Risks the European Union may face ). It gives an overview of the risk landscape in Europe and at the same time shows trends in the approach to dealing with risks in European countries.
11 hazards were identified, which of the 34 participating states were most frequently the subject of their respective risk assessments (in brackets: number of states that carried out the corresponding risk analysis ):
- Floods (30)
- extreme weather (26)
- Forest fires (24)
- Earthquake (19)
- Pandemics (23)
- epizootic animal and plant diseases (17)
- Industrial accidents (26)
- Disruptions of critical infrastructures (24)
- nuclear or radiological accidents (23)
- Cyber crime (14)
- Terrorism (17).
Individual evidence
- ^ Federal and state risk analyzes , Federal Office for Civil Protection and Disaster Aid (BBK).
- ↑ Law on civil protection and disaster relief of the federal government , Federal Ministry of Justice and for consumer protection .
- ↑ a b c d e Report on risk analysis in civil protection 2012 . In: 17th German Bundestag, printed matter 17/12051, January 3, 2013 - Risk analysis of extreme melt floods and pandemic .
- ↑ European Commission: Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management , Commission Staff Working Paper, SEC (2010) 1626 final of December 21, 2010.
- ↑ Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD): Disaster Risk Assessment and Risk Financing , G20 / OECD Methodological Framework, 2012.
- ↑ a b c Report on risk analysis in civil protection 2011 . In: 17th German Bundestag, printed matter 17/8250, December 21, 2011.
- ↑ a b Noted in the Bundestag: Risk analysis in civil protection , Interior / Briefing, January 29, 2013.
- ↑ a b c Report on the method for risk analysis in civil protection 2010 . In: 17th German Bundestag , printed matter 17/4178, December 9, 2010.
- ↑ Report on risk analysis in civil protection 2016 . In: 18th German Bundestag , printed matter 18/10850, December 28, 2016.
- ↑ a b c Report on risk analysis in civil protection 2013 . In: 18th German Bundestag, printed matter 18/208, December 16, 2013 - risk analysis winter storm .
- ↑ a b Report on the risk analysis in civil protection 2014 . In: 18th German Bundestag, printed matter 18/3682, 23 December 2014 - Storm surge risk analysis .
- ↑ a b Report on the risk analysis in civil protection 2015 . In: 18th German Bundestag, printed matter 18/7209, January 4, 2016 - Risk analysis of the release of radioactive substances from a nuclear power plant .
- ↑ a b Report on the risk analysis in civil protection 2016 . In: 18th German Bundestag, printed matter 18/10850, December 28, 2016 - Risk analysis of the release of chemical substances .
- ↑ a b Report on the risk analysis in civil protection 2018 , in: 19th German Bundestag, printed matter 19/9521, April 12, 2019 - Risk analysis drought .
- ↑ Climate maps of the drought index , German Weather Service - Regional Climate Monitoring.
- ↑ a b Report on risk analysis in civil protection 2017 . In: 19th German Bundestag , printed matter 19/9520, April 12, 2019.
- ↑ Risk analysis in civil protection , Interior / Briefing, January 25, 2017.
- ↑ National Strategy for the Protection of Critical Infrastructures (KRITIS Strategy) , Federal Ministry of the Interior, June 17, 2009.
- ↑ European Commission (2010): Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management , Commission Staff Working Paper. In: SEC (2010) 1626 final, December 21, 2010, p. 34.
- ↑ European Commission (2017): Overview of Natural and Manmade Disaster Risks the European Union may face , COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT 176 final.