Rundle-Tiampo

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Rundle-Tiampo is a method of "predicting" earthquakes based on statistical data.

introduction

The area of ​​earthquake prediction is known for its “charlatans”. They were able to predict earthquakes based on mysterious signs, celestial bodies or the like. Although none of these predictions were ever true multiple times in a row, more attention is paid to this "methodology". Scientists have developed a method to find out how accurate it is.

New technic

After the alleged indicators of electrical voltage in the subsurface, expansion of the earth's crust or changes in the water table proved to be of no use, the researchers resorted to statistics . Using this method, researchers from the University of California at Los Angeles issued a warning for the area just days before the Niigata quake . They had not predicted the time of the quake, but the exact location. The astonishment of the local geoscientists was not unjustified. Until then, Niigata was considered a relatively earthquake-proof area. But according to the forecast, an earthquake of magnitude 5 or more should occur by December 31, 2010. The new Rundle-Tiampo process, developed by the team led by John Rundle (his namesake), was also successful in California , their home country. According to the scientists, they accurately predicted 15 of the 16 strongest earthquakes in the area.

method

As I said, this methodology is based on statistics. Strictly speaking, this methodology is not a prediction, but a limitation of the affected areas since the predicted time span is too extensive. Because we now know through experiments that 95% of earthquakes occur at the edges of the tectonic plates , the endangered area can already be narrowed down. In the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the geoscientists described their approach. The method is based on the forecast period of 10 years. During this period, all “hotspots” (earthquake sources) are recorded. These hotspots are the center of an 11 kilometer radius. An area is at risk if it is located in the vicinity of a hotspot in which at least one earthquake of magnitude 3 has occurred in the past 70 years. According to Rundle, this hotspot is characterized by strong fluctuations in earthquake activity. Of course it is then logical that a higher number of predicted hotspots enables a higher hit rate. If most of the hotspots have shaken by the end of the forecast period, then this is a big step forward for geoscientists.

Conclusion

While this method is unsuitable for narrowing down the time period, once you've located enough hotspots, it is very effective at locating earthquake zones. Evacuations would not be possible with the Rundle-Tiampo procedure, but it could be more important around real estate. Because in affected areas you could have your house built to be earthquake-proof . With the help of this new technology there are many ways to avoid property damage or to save human lives.