Weather effect
The weather effect describes an observed capital market anomaly on the stock market , which was first mentioned in an empirical study by Saunders in 1993. According to the weather effect, there is a negative correlation between cloud cover and the return on stock markets. Saunders examined the relationship between the New York weather data and the price data of the New York Stock Exchange between 1962 and 1989 and was able to demonstrate a significant relationship between daily returns and the degree of cloudiness. Christian Klein has empirically proven this phenomenon for the German stock market.
Compatibility with the market efficiency hypothesis
The market efficiency hypothesis states that the prices on a capital market reflect all information available at that point in time. So returns do not follow any pattern and are unpredictable. Anomalies such as the weather effect would contradict this theory if one considers the degree of cloudiness to be predictable.
Explanation by psychology
Psychology provides a simple explanation for this relationship . Human behavior is strongly influenced by the weather. People react more optimistically to sunlight than on rainy days. The positive sentiment is causing stock returns to rise.
Further capital market anomalies
Other uses of the term
In computer graphics , computer games , photography and computer physics, weather effects are used to simulate or represent weather. One can also speak of weather effects in art .
literature
- Saunders, Edward: Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather In: The American Economic Review Vol. 83, No. 5 (December 1993) ISSN 0002-8282 , pp. 1337-1345.
Individual evidence
- ^ Luke Ahearn: 3D Game Textures: Create Professional Game Art Using Photoshop . CRC Press, 2014, ISBN 978-1-317-55798-2 ( google.de [accessed November 1, 2018]).
- ↑ Corry Delaan: The Art of Weather Photography: Atmospheric photos at any time of the day or year . dpunkt.verlag, 2018, ISBN 978-3-96088-325-8 ( google.de [accessed November 1, 2018]).
- ↑ Christina Storch: Weather, Clouds and Affects: The Atmosphere in Early Modern Painting . Gebr. Mann Verlag, 2015, ISBN 978-3-7861-2748-2 ( google.de [accessed November 1, 2018]).