2008 Atlantic hurricane season: Difference between revisions

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Revision as of 05:04, 15 July 2008

Template:Ongoing weather Template:Infobox hurricane season active The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. The season officially started on June 1 and will run through November 30. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin, though the season began slightly early when Tropical Storm Arthur formed off the coast of Belize on May 31.

Seasonal forecasts

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2008 season
Source Date Named
storms 		Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
CSU Average (1950–2000)[1] 9.6 5.9 2.3
NOAA Average (1950–2005)[2] 11.0 6.2 2.7
Record high activity 28 15 8
Record low activity 4 2 0
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
CSU December 7, 2007 13 7 3
CSU April 9, 2008 15 8 4
NOAA May 22, 2008 12–16 6–9 2–5
CSU June 3, 2008 15 8 4
UKMO June 18, 2008 15* N/A N/A
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Actual activity 2 1 1
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
* forecast for July-November period only

Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane experts Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach, Dr. William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University; and separately by NOAA forecasters.

Dr. Klotzbach's team (formerly led by Dr. Gray) defined the average number of storms per season (1950 to 2000) as 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes (storms exceeding Category 3 strength in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale). A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 9 to 12 named storms, with 5 to 7 of those reaching hurricane strength, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes.[1][2]

Pre-season forecasts

On December 7, 2007, Klotzbach's team issued its first extended-range forecast for the 2008 season, predicting above-average activity (13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 of Category 3 or higher).[1] On April 9, 2008, the CSU issued a new forecast, anticipating a well above average hurricane season of 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted an above average season with 12 to 16 storms, 6 to 9 hurricanes, and 2 to 5 major hurricanes on May 22. [3][4]

Midseason outlooks

The CSU kept their April 9 forecast on June 3 with 15 storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. The United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO), called for 15 total storms in the season, including Bertha but not Arthur, and did not give a specific forecast for minor or major hurricanes, on June 18.


Storms

Tropical Storm Arthur

Main article: Tropical Storm Arthur (2008)
Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationMay 31 – June 2
Peak intensity40 mph (65 km/h) (1-min);
1005 mbar (hPa)

Tropical Storm Arthur formed near the Belize coast on May 31, developing out of the interaction between a tropical wave and the remnants of Tropical Storm Alma, and made landfall on Belize a short while later.[5] The system traversed the Yucatán Peninsula slowly and dissipated inland on June 2.[6] Arthur is the first reported tropical storm to form in May since Tropical Storm Arlene in 1981. Other systems have formed (such as Subtropical Storm Andrea in 2007), but were subtropical. Some forecasters question whether Arthur's very short lifespan would have been reported and named in the years prior to today's technology[7]. The formation of Arthur also marks the first time that a named storm formed in May for two consecutive years.

Hurricane Bertha

Main article: Hurricane Bertha (2008)
Hurricane Bertha
Current storm status
Tropical storm (1-min mean)
Satellite image
Forecast map
As of:5 p.m. AST (2100 UTC) July 14
Location:33.0°N 64.1°W ± 20 nm
About 65 mi (100 km) NE of Bermuda
Sustained winds:60 knots | 70 mph | 110 km/h (1-min mean)
gusting to 75 knots | 85 mph | 140 km/h
Pressure:995 mbar (hPa) | 29.38 inHg
Movement:N at 8 kt | 9 mph | 15 km/h
See more detailed information.

Early on July 1, a strong and large tropical wave emerged off the coast of Africa.[8] By early the next day, a surface low developed and the wave became better organized.[9] The National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Depression Two in the morning hours of July 3 after the system was able to maintain convection over its center for at least 12 hours.[10] The depression organized further and developed two distinct bands of convection. Six hours after becoming a depression, it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Bertha, the second named storm of the season.[11] The National Hurricane Center noted that this tropical cyclone was remarkably forecasted up to a week in advance by many global computer models.[10]

After a bout of strengthening on July 6, Bertha was upgraded to a hurricane early on July 7 as satellite and microwave imagery indicated an eye feature had formed. It continued to strengthen that morning. Rapid intensification continued that afternoon and Bertha strengthened into a major hurricane with 120 mph (195 km/h) winds and a well-defined eye. The strengthening trend abated early on July 8, due to wind shear, and Bertha rapidly weakened back to a Category 1 hurricane that afternoon.

Bertha again began to rapidly intensify on July 9 as a new eye had formed and the system became more symmetrical. The NHC upgraded Bertha to a category two with winds of 105 mph (170 km/h) and stated that Bertha could intensify further to major hurricane status again, but instead weakened into an 85 mph (135 km/h) category 1 hurricane.[12] Bertha became the second longest-lived July Atlantic tropical cyclone on record on July 12, the longest lived since 1916.[13] On July 12, Bertha slowed in movement, becoming almost stationary and by July 13 this slow movement weakened the storm to tropical storm strength. Bertha may regain hurricane strength before clearing Bermuda. A hurricane watch is in effect for Bermuda.

Current storm information

See Hurricane Bertha (2008)#Current storm information

For latest official information see:

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) rating

ACE (104kt²) (Source) — Storm:
1 20.9 Bertha 2 0.37 Arthur
Total: 21.2

The table on the right shows the ACE for each storm in the season. ACE is, broadly speaking, a measure of the power of the hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed, so storms that last a long time, as well as particularly strong hurricanes, have high ACEs. ACE is only officially released for full advisories on tropical systems at or exceeding 34 knots (39 mph, 63 km/h) or tropical storm strength. Subtropical storms are not included in season totals.

Timeline of recent events

Main article: Timeline of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season

July

July 3
  • 5 a.m. EDT (0900 UTC): Tropical Depression Two forms south of the Cape Verde islands.
  • 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC): Tropical Depression Two strengthens into Tropical Storm Bertha.
July 7
  • 5 a.m. EDT (0900 UTC): Tropical Storm Bertha strengthens into Hurricane Bertha.
  • 2 p.m. EDT (1800 UTC): Hurricane Bertha reaches Category 2 intensity.
  • 5 p.m. EDT (2100 UTC): Hurricane Bertha reaches Category 3 intensity.
July 8
  • 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC): Hurricane Bertha weakens to a Category 2 hurricane.
  • 5 p.m. EDT (2100 UTC): Hurricane Bertha weakens to a Category 1 hurricane.
July 9
  • 5 p.m. EDT (2100 UTC): Hurricane Bertha restrengthens to reach Category 2 intensity.
July 10
  • 5 a.m. EDT (0900 UTC): Hurricane Bertha again weakens back to Category 1 intensity.
July 13
  • 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC): Hurricane Bertha weakens to a tropical storm.

2008 storm names

The following names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2008. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2009. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2014 season. The list is the same as the 2002 list except for Ike and Laura, which will replace Isidore and Lili, respectively.

  • Arthur
  • Bertha (active)
  • Cristobal (unused)
  • Dolly (unused)
  • Edouard (unused)
  • Fay (unused)
  • Gustav (unused)
  • Hanna (unused)
  • Ike (unused)
  • Josephine (unused)
  • Kyle (unused)
  • Laura (unused)
  • Marco (unused)
  • Nana (unused)
  • Omar (unused)
  • Paloma (unused)
  • Rene (unused)
  • Sally (unused)
  • Teddy (unused)
  • Vicky (unused)
  • Wilfredo (unused)

See also

Template:Tcportal

References

  1. ^ a b c Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray (2007-12-07). "Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2008" (PDF). Colorado State University. Retrieved 2007-12-07. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  2. ^ a b Climate Prediction Center (2006-08-08). "BACKGROUND INFORMATION: THE NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved 2006-12-08. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  3. ^ Neale, Rick, Experts predict 'very active' Atlantic hurricane season, USA Today, retrieved 2008-04-09
  4. ^ Klotzbach, Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. GrayEXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND U.S. LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2008 (as of 9 April 2008), Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, retrieved 2008-04-09
  5. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al01/al012008.discus.001.shtml?
  6. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al01/al012008.discus.007.shtml?
  7. ^ http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=954&tstamp=200806#commenttop
  8. ^ Blake (2008). "July 1 6z Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2008-07-04.
  9. ^ Cangialosi (2008). "July 2 2:05a EDT Tropical Weather Discussion". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2008-07-04.
  10. ^ a b Blake (2008). "Tropical Depression Two Advisory 1 Discussion". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2008-07-04.
  11. ^ Brown (2008). "Tropical Depression Two Advisory 2 Discussion". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2008-07-04.
  12. ^ Rhome (2008). "Hurricane Bertha Public Advisory 27". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2008-07-09.
  13. ^ National Hurricane Center. Atlantic Hurricane Database. Retrieved on 2008-07-13.

External links

Template:2000-2009 Atlantic hurricane seasons

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