2006 Canadian federal election
A Canadian federal election (more formally, the 39th general election) will occur on January 23, 2006. The election will return members to the House of Commons, and will indirectly determine the Prime Minister and cabinet as a government is formed by the party that can best enjoy confidence of the new House.
This unusual winter election was prompted by a motion of no confidence passed by the House of Commons on November 28, 2005. The following morning, Prime Minister Paul Martin met with Governor General Michaëlle Jean, who agreed to dissolve the minority parliament. The campaign will be the longest in two decades, in order to allow for downtime over the Christmas and New Year holidays.
Recent political events, most notably testimony to the Gomery Commission investigating the sponsorship scandal, were perceived to have weakened the Liberals (who, under Martin, formed a minority government) by alleging serious and criminal corruption in the party. Although the next election was not legally required until 2009, the opposition had enough votes to force the dissolution of Parliament earlier. While Prime Minister Martin had committed in April 2005 to dissolve Parliament within a month of the tabling of the second Gomery Report (now scheduled for February 1, 2006), all three opposition parties—the Conservatives, Bloc Québécois, and New Democratic Party (NDP)—and three of the four independents decided not to wait, and their motion of non-confidence passed 171-133.
Contenders
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Most observers expect only the Liberals and Conservatives to be capable of forming a government given the current political climate, although Canadian political history is not without examples of wholly unexpected outcomes, such as Ontario's provincial election in 1990. The predominant tone of pundits at the start of the campaign has been that the status quo—another Liberal minority—is the most likely outcome.
Prime Minister Martin's Liberals hope to recapture their majority, although this appears unlikely at this point; it will require holding back Bloc pressure in Quebec plus picking up some new seats there while also gaining seats in English Canada, most likely in rural Ontario and southwestern British Columbia.
Stephen Harper's Conservatives hope to become only the third party to form a federal government in Canada. While continuing weaknesses in Quebec and urban areas prompt most observers to consider a Conservative majority government to be mathematically difficult to achieve, Harper's stated goal is to achieve one nonetheless. Additional gains in rural and suburban Ontario will be necessary to at least form a minority government.
The NDP has claimed that last minute tactical voting cost them several seats last time, as left-of-centre voters moved to the Liberals to prevent a Harper-led government. Layton has thus far avoided stating his party's goal is to win the election outright, instead calling for enough New Democrats to be elected to hold the balance of power in a Liberal or Conservative minority government. Political commentators have long held that the NDP's main medium-term goal is to serve as junior partners to the Liberals in Canada's first-ever true coalition government.
The Bloc Québécois had a very successful result in the 2004 election, with the Liberals reduced to the core areas of federalist support in portions of Montreal and Gatineau. Oddly enough, this means there are comparatively few winnable Bloc seats left—perhaps eight or so—for the party to target. With provincial allies the Parti Québécois widely tipped to regain power in 2007, a large sovereigntist contingent in the House could play a major role in reopening the matter of Quebec independence.
In addition to the four sitting parties (three of whom run nationally), the Green Party of Canada intends again to run candidates in all 308 federal ridings. Though no Green candidate has yet been elected in Canada, the party has occasionally polled as high as 19% in British Columbia and 10% nationwide.
Events during the 38th Parliament
An early election seemed likely because the 2004 federal election, held on June 28, 2004, resulted in the election of a Liberal minority government. In the past, minority governments have had an average lifespan of a year and a half. Some pundits considered the 38th parliament to be particularly unstable. It involved four parties, and only very implausible ideological combinations (e.g., Liberals + Conservatives; Liberals + BQ; Conservatives + BQ + NDP) could actually command a majority of the seats, a necessity if a government is to retain power. From its earliest moments, there was some threat of the government falling as even the Speech from the Throne almost resulted in a non-confidence vote.
Brinksmanship in the spring of 2005
The parliament came close to falling when testimony from the Gomery Commission caused public opinion to move sharply against the government. The Bloc Québécois were eager from the beginning to have an early election. The Conservatives announced they had also lost confidence in the government's moral authority. Thus, during much of spring 2005, there was a widespread belief that the Liberals would lose a confidence vote, prompting an election taking place in the spring or summer of 2005.
In a televised speech on April 21, Martin promised to request a dissolution of Parliament and begin an election campaign within 30 days of the Gomery Commission’s final report. The release date of that report would later solidify as February 1, 2006; Martin then clarified that he intended to schedule the election call so as to have the polling day in April 2006.
Later that week, the NDP, who had initially opposed the budget, opted to endorse Martin's proposal for a later election. The Liberals agreed to take corporate tax cuts out of the budget on April 26 in exchange for NDP support on votes of confidence, but even with NDP support the Liberals still fell three votes short of a majority. However, a surprise defection of former Conservative leadership candidate Belinda Stronach to the Liberal party on May 17 changed the balance of power in the House. Independents Chuck Cadman and Carolyn Parrish provided the last two votes needed for the Liberals to win the budget vote.
The deal turned out to be rather unnecessary, as the Conservatives opted to ensure the government's survival on the motion of confidence surrounding the original budget, expressing support to the tax cuts and defence spending therein. When Parliament voted on second reading and referral of the budget and the amendment on May 19, the previous events kept the government alive. The original budget bill, C-43, passed easily, as expected, but the amendment bill, C-48, resulted in an equality of votes, and the Speaker of the House broke the tie to continue the parliament. The government never got as close to falling after that date. Third reading of Bill C-48 was held late at night on an unexpected day, and several Conservatives being absent, the motion passed easily, guaranteeing there would be no election in the near future.
Aftermath of the first Gomery report
On November 1, John Gomery released his interim report, and the scandal returned to prominence. Liberal support again fell, with some polls registering an immediate ten percent drop. The Conservatives and Bloc thus resumed their push for an election before Martin's April date. The NDP stated that their support was contingent on the Liberals agreeing to move against the private provision of healthcare. The Liberals and NDP failed to come to an agreement, however, and the NDP joined the two other opposition parties in demanding an election.
However, the Liberals had intentionally scheduled the mandatory "opposition days" (where a specified opposition party controls the agenda) on November 15 (Conservative), November 17 (Bloc Québécois) and November 24 (NDP). These days meant that any election would come over the Christmas season, an unpopular idea. Following negotiations between the opposition parties, they instead issued an ultimatum to the Prime Minister to call an election immediately after the Christmas holidays or face an immediate non-confidence vote which would prompt a holiday-spanning campaign.
To that end, the NDP introduced a parliamentary motion demanding that the government drop the writ in January 2006 for a February 13 election date; however, only the prime minister has the authority advise the Governor General on an election date, the government was therefore not bound by the NDP's motion. Martin had indicated that he remained committed to his April 2006 date, and would disregard the motion, which the opposition parties managed to pass, as expected, on November 21 by a vote of 167-129.
The three opposition leaders had agreed to delay the tabling of the no-confidence motion until the 24th, to ensure that a conference between the government and aboriginal leaders scheduled on the 24th would not be disrupted by the campaign. Parliamentary procedure dictated that the vote be deferred until the 28th. Even if the opposition hadn't put forward the non-confidence motion, the government was still expected to fall—there was to have been a vote on supplementary budget estimates on December 8, and if it had been defeated, loss of supply would have toppled the Liberals.
Conservative leader Stephen Harper, the leader of the Opposition, introduced a motion of no confidence on November 24, which NDP leader Jack Layton seconded. The motion was voted upon and passed in the evening of November 28, with all present MPs from the NDP, Bloc Québécois, and Conservatives and 3 Independents (Bev Desjarlais, David Kilgour and Pat O'Brien), voting with a combined strength of 171 votes for the motion and 132 Liberals and one Independent (Carolyn Parrish) voting against. One Bloc Québécois MP was absent from the vote. It is the fifth time a Canadian government has lost the confidence of Parliament, but the first time this has happened on a straight motion of no confidence. The four previous instances have been due to loss of supply or votes of censure.
Martin visited Jean the following morning, where he formally advised her to dissolve Parliament and schedule an election for January 23. In accordance with Canadian constitutional practice, she consented (such a request has only been turned down once in Canadian history), officially beginning an election campaign that had been simmering for months.
Issues
Opinion polls
Recent polls:
- ^ SES polls are 3-day polls. Each new poll removes the 1/3 of the data that is the oldest, and replaces it with new data from that day. Only every third poll is shown on this page, but all the polls are in the Main Article.
NB: The margin of error in these surveys depends on the size of the sample in each survey, and is typically set at between 2.5 and 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. See the links for actual error values associated with particular surveys.
All polling companies rely on cooperation from individuals contacted over the phone, the major companies claim a typical response reate is between 20 and 35 percent. [[3]]
State of the parties
Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Blank/rowNotes:
- Candidate totals are based on those officially with Elections Canada. Totals denoted by • refer to parties that are expected to nominate full slates—308 for the national parties; 75 for the BQ. Official candidate nominations close January 2, 2005.
- "% change" refers to change from previous election
- * indicates the party did not contest the previous election.
- The FemINist INitiative of Canada, Peace and Ecology Party of Canada and Sex Party and Western Canada Party are in process of gathering signatures for formal registration. The Western Canada Party has decided not to run in this election.
Candidates
The election will involve the same 308 electoral districts as in 2004, except in New Brunswick, where the boundaries of Acadie—Bathurst were deemed illegal. Many of the candidates will also be the same: fewer incumbents chose to leave than if they had served a full term, and the parties have generally blocked challenges to sitting MPs for the duration of the minority government, although there have been some exceptions.
See also star candidate
Swing ridings
Swing ridings are those in which the winning candidate won with a very slim margin of victory. These ridings are often heavily targeted by the runner-up. Winning party shown in parentheses. Up to 30 are shown, with a maximum margin of victory of 15%.
* Indicates incumbent not running again
Cabinet ministers who won by less than 5% in 2004
- Liza Frulla, Canadian Heritage: 0.2% over BQ in Jeanne-Le Ber, QC
- Ethel Blondin-Andrew, Northern Development: 0.3% over NDP in Western Arctic, NT
- Pierre Pettigrew, Foreign Affairs: 1.1% over BQ in Papineau, QC
- Belinda Stronach, Human Resources and Skills Development: 1.3% over Lib in Newmarket—Aurora, ON; elected as a Conservative, Stronach defected to the Liberals on May 17, 2005.
- Anne McLellan, Deputy PM/Public Safety: 1.4% over Cons. in Edmonton Centre, AB
- Tony Valeri, House Leader, 1.9% over NDP in Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, ON
- Aileen Carroll, International Cooperation, 2.6% over Cons. in Barrie, ON
- David Emerson, Industry, 3.1% over NDP in Vancouver Kingsway, BC
- Jacques Saada, Quebec Economic Development, 4.9% over BQ in Brossard—La Prairie, QC
Incumbent MPs not running for re-election
External links
Government links |
National media coverage |
Party websites
Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Liberal/row| Liberal Party of Canada | Conservative Party of Canada | Bloc Quebecois | New Democratic Party | Green Party of Canada |
General links
- Election Prediction Project
- Pollingreport.ca
- Nodice Elections: Canada
- democraticSPACE Forecast
- Politics Canada
- TrendLines Riding Projections
- Hill and Knowlton election predictor
- Canada elections links wiki via Democracies Online
- Predicting the 2006 Canadian Election by Elmer G. Wiens
- The Blogging Torries - Conservative Blogs
- LibLogs - Liberal Blogs
- The Blogging Dippers - NDP Blogs
- The Blogging Alliance of Non-Partisan Canadians - Links to "non partisan" or "multi partisan" blogs
| Preceded by 2004 federal election |
Canadian federal elections | Succeeded by 40th federal election |