Futarchy

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Futarchy English Futarchy is a form of government proposed by the economist Robin Hanson , in which the people vote on values, but decisions are made with the help of forecast markets.

It was the New York Times catchphrase of 2008.

functionality

World map over the systems of government
Systems of government in the world
Republican form of government:
  • presidential political system
  • semi-presidential system of government
  • Parliamentary government system
  • parliamentary executive power

  • Monarchical form of government:
  • parliamentary monarchy
  • Constitutional monarchy
  • Absolute Monarchy

  • Dictatorial systems (mostly in republics):
  • One-party system (although block parties may exist)
  • Constitutional government overthrown
    ( de facto mostly military dictatorships )

  • other systems or unclear
    political situations
  • Last updated 2012

    Democratic votes are still used to decide which goals are to be achieved, e.g. reducing unemployment , increasing gross domestic product , improving air quality, etc. These goals must be measurable and could also be aggregated in a target index.

    Once the goals have been set, forecast markets are used to decide how they can best be achieved. Policy measures can be proposed by any citizen after leaving a deposit. If a policy measure is proposed, two markets open up: One, which predicts the degree of fulfillment of the target index after the measure has been implemented, and a second, which predicts the degree of fulfillment of the target index after the measure has not been implemented. Every citizen can bet any sums or buy securities. If the resulting quotas or market prices indicate that the degree of fulfillment is higher after implementation than after non-implementation, the measure will be implemented. Ten times the deposit paid by the initiator of the measure will be refunded. The target index is measured for a predetermined period of time after implementation. Investors are rewarded based on the quality of their forecast.

    advantages

    Futarchy solves the problem in democracy that the willingness to find out more about politics is low in the population due to the low influence of a single voice. Since a person can create a great financial advantage for himself in futarchy, it can be rational here to read up on politics. As a result, better decisions can be made overall.

    In addition, over time there is an evolutionary process in which individuals who predict poor livelihoods lose money and thus their influence on future markets diminishes and vice versa.

    Furthermore, due to the focus on political issues (as opposed to people), futarchy could minimize irrational decisions.

    criticism

    Economist Tyler Cowen says:

    “I would bet against the future of Futarchie, or its likelihood of succeeding were it in place. Robin says 'vote on values, bet on beliefs', but I don't think values ​​and beliefs can be so easily separated ”

    “I would bet against the future of Futarchy or its likelihood of success. Robin says "chooses values, bets on convictions", but I doubt that values ​​and convictions can be so easily separated. "

    Individual evidence

    1. ^ Robin Hanson: Shall we vote on values, but bet on beliefs? (PDF) Retrieved March 23, 2017 .
    2. ^ Mark Leibovich, Grant Barrett: The Buzzwords of 2008 . In: Week in Review , The New York Times , December 21, 2008. Retrieved July 23, 2010. 
    3. a b Vitalik Buterin : An Introduction to Futarchy. Retrieved March 23, 2017 .