State election in North Rhine-Westphalia 2010 / polls and forecasts

Surveys and forecasts in the run-up to the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia 2010 .

Parties

Institute	date	CDU	SPD	GREEN	FDP	LEFT	Others
Emnid	05/06/2010	37%	33%	12%	08th %	05%	5%
Forsa	05/06/2010	37%	37%	10%	06%	05%	5%
GMS	05/05/2010	37%	33%	12%	07%	06%	05%
YouGov	05/03/2010	35%	35%	11%	08th %	07%	?
Emnid	05/02/2010	38%	33%	11%	08th %	06%	04%
Research group elections	04/30/2010	35%	33.5%	11%	08.5%	06%	06% (3% pirates)
Infratest dimap	04/29/2010	37.5%	33.0%	12.0%	07.5%	05.5%	04.5%
Forsa	04/28/2010	39%	33%	10%	07%	06%	05%
Emnid	04/24/2010	38%	34%	11%	08th %	06%	03%
Omniquest	04/23/2010	37.5%	36.8%	12.8%	05.1%	04.8%	02.9%
Forsa	04/21/2010	38%	34%	09%	08th %	06%	05%
Forsa	04/14/2010	39%	34%	11%	06%	05%	05%
Infratest dimap	04/11/2010	38%	34%	12%	07%	06%	03%
GMS	04/09/2010	39%	32%	12%	07%	06%	04%
Emnid	04/04/2010	38%	32%	12%	08th %	07%	03%
Emnid	03/24/2010	38%	32%	11%	08th %	07%	04%
Research group elections	03/19/2010	37%	33%	12%	08th %	06%	04%
Emnid	03/12/2010	37%	33%	12%	08th %	07%	03%
Infratest dimap	03/04/2010	35%	33%	13%	10%	06%	03%
Forsa	03/03/2010	38%	34%	11%	06%	06%	05%
GMS	02/25/2010	39%	31%	12%	07%	06%	05%
Forsa	02/03/2010	41%	32%	11%	06%	05%	05%
Infratest dimap	01/22/2010	36%	32%	12%	09%	06%	05%
Forsa	01/19/2010	42%	31%	11%	06%	05%	05%
Infratest dimap	11/22/2009	36%	30%	11%	10%	08th %	05%
Forsa	11/18/2009	41%	31%	09%	09%	06%	04%
GMS	08/12/2009	39%	29%	09%	12%	05%	06%
Infratest dimap	06/14/2009	38%	27%	12%	14%	06%	03%
Forsa	05/06/2009	42%	30%	08th %	11%	05%	04%

Party preference among the minority of Turkish origin

Institute	date	CDU	SPD	GREEN	FDP	LEFT	Others
Institute for Turkish Studies	??. ??. 2009	4.3%	59.6%	22.5%	02.1%	011.1%	0.4%

The website election.de made several constituency forecasts. According to the last constituency forecast of May 8, 2010, the CDU 59 and the SPD 69 constituencies should decide for themselves. In 2005 the CDU had won in 89 constituencies. The SPD should therefore gain 30 direct mandates. According to this forecast, the other parties should not receive any direct mandates. In the election the CDU received 67 and the SPD 61 seats. Compared to the 2005 election, the SPD won 22 direct mandates.

Top candidates

Institute	date	Rüttgers	force	another)
Infratest dimap	07/11/2010	-	50%	50%
State election	05/09/2010	-	-	-
Forsa	05/06/2010	41%	38%	21%
GMS	05/02/2010	41%	40%	19%
Emnid	05/05/2010	47%	39%	14%
Research group elections	04/30/2010	41%	43%	13%
Infratest dimap	04/30/2010	41%	41%	18%
Forsa	04/14/2010	45%	28%	27%
Infratest	04/11/2010	47%	43%	10%
GMS	04/09/2010	43%	36%	20%
Emnid	04/09/2010	40%	35%	25%
Infratest	03/04/2010	44%	43%	13%
Forsa	01/19/2010	51%	23%	26%
Forsa	11/18/2009	52%	21%	27%
Forsa	06/03/2009	54%	19%	27%

Surveys during government formation

Institute	date	CDU	SPD	GREEN	FDP	LEFT	Others
Infratest dimap	07/11/2010	32%	36%	17%	05%	06%	4%
Emnid	05/27/2010	34%	35%	12%	06%	07%	6%

Individual evidence

1. ↑ ^{a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa} Election surveys on the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia .
2. ↑ Now the heartbeat finale begins ... , picture , May 3, 2010.
3. ^ Majority for red-green in NRW, Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger from April 23, 2010
4. ↑ Study on the Turks in North Rhine-Westphalia .
5. ^ Election: LTW North Rhine-Westphalia constituency forecast - as of May 8, 2010
6. ↑ http://www.gms-gmbh.com/download.php?f=54a82dad024b4f2cec4976861b47e91d  ( page no longer available , search in web archives )  Info: The link was automatically marked as defective. Please check the link according to the instructions and then remove this notice.