Next Eleven
| Next Eleven ( N-11 ) |
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| Next Eleven States |
According to a list published by Goldman Sachs chief economist Jim O'Neill in December 2005, the next eleven ( N-11 ) are eleven countries with high populations that could experience an economic upturn similar to that of his first in November 2001 published BRIC countries Brazil , Russia , India and the PRC .
Next Eleven States
The following countries are counted among the Next Eleven :
- Egypt , Bangladesh , Indonesia , Iran , Mexico , Nigeria , Pakistan , Philippines , South Korea , Turkey and Vietnam .
Classification criteria
First of all, the analyst team at the investment bank examined 170 nations primarily for their sustainable growth potential. These were then rated using the Growth Environment Score (GES; for example: assessment of the environment relevant to growth). This takes into account:
- Macroeconomic Factors
- technical infrastructure
- PC use, telephone connections and Internet use
- Upbringing and life expectancy
- Political factors
- political stability, rule of law and corruption
Development potential
Egypt
In Egypt, the EGX 30 stock market index (formerly the CASE 30 index) lost more than 40 percent of its value in just a few weeks after the record growth of previous years. Nevertheless, this country with the seventeenth largest natural gas reserves in the world and its young population averaging 25 years remains an interesting market.
Mexico
For Jim O'Neill, Mexico is one of the two most promising N-11 nations alongside South Korea. The only Latin American N-11 country shows high economic growth of five percent with a low unemployment rate of four percent. The Goldman Sachs chief economist sees Mexico as the fifth largest economy in the world by 2050 - behind China, the USA, India and Japan , but ahead of Russia and Germany. The Mexican IPC index has also increased by more than 350 percent in the past four years. The country is struggling with steadily falling oil production. The Cantarell oil field still produced 2.1 million barrels in 2004, which is the majority of Mexican oil. In December 2012 the production fell from 2.1 million to 340,000 barrels, steadily falling. In 2014, the state oil monopoly, which had existed since 1937, was lifted in order to attract foreign investors and know-how into the country. Then there is the drug war in Mexico : since 2006, this conflict has claimed more than 164,000 deaths, according to a 2015 study. That is more civilian deaths than in the Afghanistan and Iraq wars combined. Mexico faces major financial problems due to low oil prices, low oil production and insufficient refining capacity (gasoline is mainly imported from the US). Population growth only makes the energy problem worse. The economy is growing only slowly, especially when you consider the population growth of 1.21% (2014). The population had increased to 125.25 million by June 2015.
Nigeria
Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa, has very large oil and gas reserves, but here more than 50 percent of the population still live in poverty. The inadequate infrastructure, especially in the area of power supply and transport, is considered to be the main obstacle to economic development. Economic growth has been between seven and eight percent in recent years, but has so far been largely due to high oil revenues. Other successful areas are banking, telecommunications and agriculture. Nigeria's downside includes political instability, economic crime and corruption.
Turkey
In Turkey, the political reforms of recent years and possible EU accession are seen as driving the economy. With a growth of 8.9%, the country was at the top in Europe and the OECD countries and achieved the highest rate worldwide in the first half of 2011 with 10.2% growth. Turkey is already one of the 20 largest economies in the world. The driving force here is the high-performance industry, especially the automotive and supplier industry, textile and clothing industry and the construction industry.
Vietnam
The best chances of above-average economic growth are currently repeatedly attested to Vietnam. The over 93.4 million inhabitants (June 2015) scoring Socialist Republic in January 2007 as the 150th country in the World Trade Organization WTO joined. After decades of planned economy , the country opened since the Đổi mới -Beschlüssen 1986 strengthened the West. At just under eight percent, economic growth is only marginally behind China or India; exports have tripled recently. The Vietnam Index VN in Ho Chi Minh City has increased almost tenfold since it was launched on March 1, 2002 until today (2007 status). As a result, more and more financial products with a focus on Vietnam are being launched. By 2010, the country's around 6,000 state-owned companies, which generated around 40 percent of Vietnam's economic output, were to be privatized. By 2008, a third of the companies had already changed hands.
However, there are also risks: The expansion of the infrastructure is still far behind the new economic demands of the country. Excessive bureaucracy and corruption as well as a legal system in need of reform will hinder investments in strategically important sectors for some time, despite WTO accession.
Other countries
For Jim O'Neill, South Korea is one of the two most promising N-11 nations alongside Mexico.
With almost 256 million citizens, by far the most populous N-11 country is Indonesia. The workforce is highly qualified and the country offers many raw materials.
In Bangladesh and Iran in particular, the political risks should not be underestimated.
Web links
- The N-11: More Than an Acronym, Global Economics Paper No. 153, Goldman Sachs ( Memento from September 10, 2013 in the Internet Archive ) (PDF file; 831 kB)
Individual evidence
- ↑ Jim O'Neill, Dominic Wilson, Roopa Purushothaman, Anna Stupnytska: How Solid are the BRICs? , Global Economics Paper No. 134, Goldman Sachs, December 1, 2005
- ^ Egyptian Natural Gas Reserves
- ↑ The staggering death toll of mexicos drug war (English)
- ↑ World Population Live Ticker
- ^ IHK Munich and Upper Bavaria . Retrieved November 26, 2012