Polarity (international relations)

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The term polarity is used in the political science sub-discipline of international relations to describe the distribution of power among states in the international system. Polarity occurs in three variants. If there is a state whose power structure surpasses all others, it is called unipolarity . If there are two similarly strong countries in the world, this is called bipolarity . If there are more than two states with similar power potentials, one speaks of multipolarity . The use of the term is specific to the neorealist school of thought of international relations , in which the distribution of power is the criterion for the formation of structures.

Historical development and stability expectations

From the Peace of Westphalia between 1648 and 1945, multipolarity dominated the international system. Constant attempts to balance power between states often led to wars. But there were also peaceful periods of power equilibrium based on agreed rules and principles, such as those of the Congress of Vienna in 1814/15. The multipolarity in 1945 by the bipolarity of the East-West conflict replaced. It was characterized by nuclear deterrence and the military alliances NATO and Warsaw Pact . After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, a phase of unipolarity emerged with the United States as the only superpower.

From the point of view of Kenneth Waltz , the founder of the neorealist school of thought, bipolar systems with two particularly powerful states are least prone to war and prove to be particularly stable in the long term. Bipolar power relations are particularly clear. The likelihood of misjudgments of the power of other states that require their own reaction (such as armament) is low. A balance of power that inhibits war is relatively easy to establish, as the Cold War empirically proves. The situation in a multipolar system, on the other hand, is much more problematic, since every state must feel threatened by a large number of other states whose powers and intentions can only be assessed imprecisely. In a unipolar system, the hegemon represents a clear threat to all other states, which leads to efforts to form counter-power alliances, which increases the likelihood of armed conflicts. The latter was questioned in 1999 by William C. Wohlforth , who is also assigned to the neorealist school, in a magazine article. He did not consider the unipolarity of the United States after the end of the Cold War to be a relatively short-term momentum until global competition emerged. He saw the reasons for this in the oversized power potential of the USA, which would discourage other states and coalitions of states from developing counterpower.

Most proponents of neorealism, including John J. Mearsheimer , expect a new phase of multipolarity in the future with a few, roughly equally strong, global actors. For Mearsheimer, China would be America's greatest challenger in such a world. A return to multipolarity would increase the risk of war.

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ Xuewu Gu : Theories of International Relations. Introduction . 3rd, revised and expanded edition, De Gruyter Oldenbourg, Berlin 2018, ISBN 978-3-486-71595-8 , p. 84 ff.
  2. ↑ Heinz Gärtner : The USA and the new world . LIT, Berlin / Münster 2014, ISBN 978-3-643-50640-5 , p. 17 ff.
  3. ↑ Niklas Schörnig, Neorealism . In: Siegfried Schieder and Manuela Spindler: Theories of international relations . 3rd edition, Budrich, Opladen 2010, ISBN 978-3-8252-2315-1 , pp. 65-96, here p. 76 f.
  4. ↑ William C. Wohlforth : The Stability of a Unipolar World . In: Quarterly Journal. International Security , Volume 24, No. 1 (Summer 1999), pp. 5–41 ( online ).
  5. ^ Carlo Masala , This Is the End of the World as We Know It. Considerations on the current disorder in international politics . In: Andrea Gawrich and Wilhelm Knelangen , Global Security and the Future of Political Orders . Barbara Budrich, Opladen / Berlin 2017, ISBN 978-3-8474-2071-2 , pp. 29–44, here p. 34.
  6. ↑ Heinz Gärtner: The USA and the new world . LIT, Berlin / Münster 2014, ISBN 978-3-643-50640-5 , p. 19.