Replacement migration

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Replacement migration ( English replacement "replacement, exchange") into German as replacement migration translated, referred to in the demographics that migration ( migration ) required for a region to a specific goal - demographically, economically or socially - to achieve. In general, policies using this concept address the narrower goal of avoiding the decline in the total population and the decline in the working-age population .

Often these general population declines are influenced by low fertility rates . When fertility is below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman and life expectancy is high, the age structure changes over time. In this case, the population will decline as there are not enough children to replace the dwindling population. In contrast, the proportion of the population made up of older people continues to increase. One problem is that the age dependency rate will be affected, as the working age population has to support more relatives in older age (so-called labor force potential ). This has a negative impact on economic growth and social security systems. For this reason, a hypothetical calculation was made with “conservation migration” in order to combat the declining population and the aging of the population in a country or region and to maintain the proportion of people in the working age groups.

Migration replacement calculations are primarily demographic and theoretical in nature and are not forecasts or recommendations. However, this demographic information can help governments facilitate migration through policy change.

The concept of conservation migration can vary depending on the study and the context in which it is applied. It can concern a number of annual immigrants, a net migration or an additional number of immigrants compared to a reference scenario, among other things.

Types of Replacement Migration

Conservation migration can take several forms as multiple population development projection scenarios can achieve the same goal. However, two forms dominate: the minor conservation migration and the constant conservation migration.

The minor conservation migration

Conservation migration is a minimum, no excess migration to achieve a chosen destination. This form of conservation migration can cause large fluctuations between periods. How they are calculated depends on the destination chosen. For example, Marois calculates the total gross number of immigrants needed to prevent Quebec's population from falling. The formula is then as follows:

It denotes:

  • R (t) '= Conservation migration to avoid population decline in year t
  • A (t) = retention rate of immigrants in year t, defined by (1 - current rate of departure)
  • ∆P (t, t + 1) = change in the total population in the time interval t, t + 1

Constant conservation migration

The constant conservation migration does not fluctuate and remains the same throughout the projection period. For example, it is calculated with a projection that results in a migration of X over the entire time horizon.

Results

This article or the following section is not adequately provided with supporting documents ( e.g. individual evidence ). Information without sufficient evidence could be removed soon. Please help Wikipedia by researching the information and including good evidence.

The raw conservation migration results are not necessarily comparable, depending on the type of conservation migration used by the author. Nevertheless, the most important demographic results recur periodically:

  • Conservation migration reaches a level that is not possible in practice in order to avoid population aging, maintain the degree of dependency or significantly influence the age structure of a region.
  • In regions with a relatively high birth rate , maintenance migration, which prevents a decline in the total population or in the working age, is not excessive. In regions with a very low fertility rate, however, the replacement rate for migration is very high and therefore unrealistic.
  • The level of fertility is much more important than immigration based on age and age structure.
  • The main effect of immigration is aimed at its impact on the population without significantly changing the structure of the population.

criticism

Conservation migration, as presented in 2000 by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), is widely perceived as unrealistic as it is only one method of combating population aging. The reason for this is that conservation migration can usually only be seen as a temporary solution for an aging population. Instead of using conservation migration to combat population decline and aging, the state could implement political and social changes. Hence, conservation migration is only useful as an analytical or hypothetical tool.

Increasing migration could reduce the age dependency rate, which is expected to increase significantly over the next few decades. However, the need for immigration to effectively counter the aging of many industrialized countries is unrealistically high.

It is also feared that conservation migration will have a negative impact on the environment. Declining and aging populations are typically seen in the more developed countries as these countries have better infrastructure for health care and access to education, reducing both mortality and fertility rates in the population. Immigrants tend to move from areas with fewer resources or economic opportunities as access to more resources and economic prosperity can be a pull factor for these migrants to move to another country. A large influx of immigrants from an area that is poor or has inadequate resources such as food, water, land, energy, etc., to a country that has more such resources could change the availability of resources because it is then with would give more people more distribution conflicts.

The population in some countries may be against immigration. By xenophobic attitudes recent immigrants are discriminated against, so they may have trouble settling into their new country. The indigenous population of these countries can at the same time develop resistance to fears of the loss of national identity, the homogeneous national culture and the loss of advantages.

However, advances in robotics and AI could reduce the need for migrant workers, especially in low-skilled jobs.

literature

  • Jakub Bijak et al. 2005. "Replacement Migration Revisited: Migration Flows, Population and Labor Force in Europe, 2002–2052" In UN ECE Work Session on Demographic Projections, Vienna, 21.-23. September 2005. [1]
  • Jared Diamond , 1997 Guns, Germs and Steel: A short history of everybody for the last 13,000 years .
  • Guillaume Marois. 2007. "Démystification de l'impact de l'immigration sur la demographie québécoise: des résultats surprenants", Mémoire déposé lors de la Consultation publique en vue de la planification triennale des niveaux d'immigration pour la période 2008-2010, Commission de la culture, Québec Governorate. [2]
  • Guillaume Marois. 2008. “La“ migration de remplacement ”: un exercice méthodologique en rapport aux enjeux démographiques du Québec”, Cahier québécois de demographie, vol. 37, n ° 2, pp. 237-261 [3]
  • United Nations. 2000. Replacement Migration, UN Population Division, New York. [4]

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ United Nations - Population Issues Division: Conservation Migration: A Solution for Decreasing and Aging Population? ( un.org [PDF]).
  2. ↑ Cf. Guillaume Marois: La "migration de remplacement": un exercice méthodologique en rapport aux enjeux démographiques du Québec / Replacement migration: methodological and demographic issues in Quebec
  3. ↑ See United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs; Population Division. Replacement Migration: Is it a Solution to Declining and Aging Populations? Vol. No.206, United Nations, New York, 2001
  4. ↑ Johann Fuchs, Alexander Kubis and Lutz Schneider: Immigration and digitization - How much migration from third countries will the German labor market need in the future? In: Bertelsmann-Stiftung.de. 2019, p. 10 , accessed on July 15, 2020 .
  5. ↑ Bijak, Jakub et al .: Replacement Migration Revisited: Simulations of the Effects of Selected Population and Labor Market Strategies for the Aging Europe, 2002-2052 , Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 27, No. 3, 2008, pp. 321-342. JSTOR
  6. ↑ In the Internet archive under " Mémoire pour la Consultation publique en vue de la planification triennale de niveau d'immigration pour la période 2008-2010 - Démystification de l'impact de l'immigration sur la demographie Québécoise: Des résultats surprenants "
  7. ↑ See www.un.org
  8. ↑ Archived under Jakub Bijak, Dorota Kupiszewska, Marek Kupiszewski: Replacement Migration Revisited: Migratory Flows, Population and Labor Force in Europe, 2002–2052 , original document no longer available
  9. ^ Guillaume Marois: La "migration de remplacement": un exercice méthodologique en rapport aux enjeux demographiques du Québec . In: Cahier québécois de demographie . tape 37 , no. 2 , 2008, p. 237-261 .
  10. ↑ Chris Wilson, Tomáš Sobotka, Lee Williamson, Paul Boyle: Migration and Intergenerational Replacement in Europe . In: Population and Development Review . tape 39 , 2013, p. 131–157 , doi : 10.1111 / j.1728-4457.2013.00576.x ( wiley.com [PDF]).
  11. ↑ http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/download/fuernkranz/laborsupply_prospects_McDonald.pdf
  12. ^ DA Coleman : Replacement migration, or why everyone is going to have to live in Korea: a fable for our times from the United Nations . In: Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci. tape 357 , no. 1420 , 2002, pp. 583-98 , doi : 10.1098 / rstb.2001.1034 , PMID 12028794 , PMC 1692968 (free full text).
  13. ^ Frederick AB Meyerson (2001). Population and Environment. 22 (4): 401-409
  14. ↑ http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/download/fuernkranz/laborsupply_prospects_McDonald.pdf
  15. ↑ http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/download/fuernkranz/laborsupply_prospects_McDonald.pdf
  16. ↑ http://www.popcouncil.org/uploads/pdfs/councilarticles/pdr/PDR301Bongaarts.pdf
  17. ^ Frederick AB Meyerson (2001): A Questionable Tactic for Delaying the Inevitable Effects of Fertility Transition. In: Population and Environment. 22 (4): 401-409.
  18. ^ John R. Weeks: Population: An Introduction to Concepts and Issues . Cengage Learning, 2015, ISBN 978-1-305-09450-5 .
  19. ^ Frederick AB Meyerson (2001): A Questionable Tactic for Delaying the Inevitable Effects of Fertility Transition. In: Population and Environment. 22 (4): 401-409.
  20. ↑ John R. Weeks (2015). Population: An Introduction to Concepts and Issues. Cengage learning. ISBN 978-1-305-09450-5
  21. ↑ Delphine Strauss: "Robots could replace migrant workers, says think-tank" , Financial Times , July 4, 2016