Population decline

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Population decline is the form of population development in which the increase in population due to the birth rate and immigration is smaller than the decrease due to death rate and emigration . It is statistically examined in demography ; historical population declines are the subject of historical research . In particular, the natural population decline, i.e. the influence of the birth and death rate, is a phenomenon of many postmodern industrial societies.

This population decline has increased particularly since the 1990s. In 2003 there were some industrialized countries with a noticeable decline in population, such as Bulgaria , Russia , Ukraine and Hungary . In the future, other industrialized countries are likely to be affected. The natural population decline in a few developing countries that previously recorded very high growth rates, such as Botswana (-0.55% in 2003), Zimbabwe and South Africa , can also be attributed to the AIDS epidemic.

Worldwide, however, population growth has been recorded on average across all countries. In 2006, the UN expected 7.9 billion people in the world by 2025 and 9.2 billion by 2050, assuming a medium projection. If the number of births per woman ( fertility rate ) - as assumed in the forecast - levels off at 1.85 in the long term, a global population decline can be assumed after 2050.

Situation in the industrialized countries

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Selected countries
(as of 2016)
Country Births / woman
Israel 2.66
France 2.07
Ireland 1.98
Great Britain 1.89
Sweden 1.88
United States 1.87
Australia 1.77
Russia 1.61
People's Republic of China 1.60
Estonia 1.59
Switzerland 1.55
Spain 1.49
Austria 1.47
Germany 1.44
Italy 1.43
Japan 1.41
South Korea 1.25
Taiwan 1.12
Singapore 0.82
Source: cia.gov u. a.

In the developed industrial nations, especially in Europe, there has been a decline in birth rates since the introduction of the contraceptive pill at the end of the 1960s ( pill break ), which has been more than offset by immigration. However, the long-term decline in the fertility rate not only leads to the relativization of this migration surplus, but also to socio-political problems that demographers had long warned about.

On the one hand, the infrastructure of industrialized countries is designed for growth or stagnation rather than shrinkage; The consequences are vacant houses, especially old buildings in need of renovation, which are often worth preserving , the loss of public transport connections or the closure of village supermarkets.

On the other hand, the social systems, including the pension system and health care in most industrialized countries, are structured in such a way that current contributors have to pay for current pensioners ( intergenerational contract ). The result is that when the population declines due to unsustainable birth rates, fewer contributors have to pay for more recipients, which means that contributions either increase or benefits decrease. The switch to alternative systems, such as investment-based self-sufficiency for one's own later retirement, is being carried out in part, but it is difficult to implement completely and does not change the problem that fewer and fewer people are working and more and more people will be retiring (see also Mackenroth- Thesis ). Instead of lowering pensions, there might be an inflationary effect later , as more people withdraw their deposits than young people invest.

Another consequence of the population decline is the transformation of the age pyramid into a shape that is known as an onion , kebab or - in allusion to the aging of the population - urn : a population structure with few children and young people, but with many old people; the curve then only drops again in old age. This also has social consequences: Society is “ aging ” and has few children, schools and kindergartens are being closed. At the same time, the need for nursing staff is increasing.

In some cases, it can also be observed that society is becoming more hostile to children or at least becoming estranged from children. The last circumstance, however, is by no means due to the natural decline in population, but rather to social changes that are also one of the causes of the population decline. Above all, this includes the change in the social position of women from being responsible for the household and children to being a working person who changes their needs , i.e. the desire for children, accordingly.

As a result of this development, a consistent population policy was and is often called for in order to halt or at least slow down the population decline. So far, such a policy has only been consistently implemented in a few countries. According to German terminology, the instruments used here mostly fall into the area of family policy . In Germany, family policy has so far been understood mainly as social policy ; Only recently was the parental allowance introduced for the first time, a measure essentially based on population policy (reducing childlessness among working, especially high-earning women).

Overall, however, children have so far been seen more as a private matter. Most of the costs associated with them are borne by their parents. In addition to livelihood, these include, in particular, childcare and upbringing costs , for which a parent often has to limit their gainful employment and the more educated they (usually the mother) are, the more so the so-called opportunity costs .

In addition, it is often criticized that the social systems of most countries, conversely, socialize the economic advantages arising from children: the taxes and social contributions paid by the children after entering the labor market come when the parents' generation is dependent on care for age reasons, not only parents but also not - Parents benefit. In this respect, critics speak of “ transfer exploitation ” of parents or families, especially since non-parents even receive higher pensions due to the connection to the employment biography (especially childless women can, unencumbered by caring tasks, be more gainfully employed and thus acquire pension rights, while parents often The father's pension must also be sufficient for the mother). It is controversial to what extent childless people, conversely, participate in the "investments" in children through taxes and charges.

The economic and social aspects that may be associated with the population decline are only slowly moving into the focus of scientific considerations: it is feared that the increasing average age of the working population will also have a negative impact on economic growth through performance and innovation. According to estimates by the OECD , demographic change will cost For example, Germany already has half a percent economic growth per year, with the actual demographic change still to come (currently the baby boomers of the 60s are still in their prime working age). Objected is u. a., with a shrinking population, no economic growth is required to maintain or even improve the standard of living, because in this case the economic output per capita can increase, even if it decreases in total. This is countered by the fact that the problem is not so much shrinkage as the increasing aging of society. Relative to the total population, the number of economically active, gainfully employed people is falling, while that of those in need is increasing. Even if the economic development does not slide into a permanent recessive trend, it will therefore be necessary to take an ever larger relative share of their income from the employed for the purpose of redistribution. Such an ever increasing burden on the younger generation could, as Kaufmann and Birg write (see literature list), not only undermine the willingness to perform, but also trigger emigration problems, which further intensify the development. The lack of scope for distribution could have such drastic consequences, especially for socially disadvantaged people, that there could be internal unrest with the rise of extremist political groups.

A more specific analysis shows that in the industrialized nations, birth rates are falling first among the most highly qualified population groups (who invest the majority of their time in training and careers and not in families and children). If the birth rate in these population groups falls below the reproductive rate of 2.1, there will be a shortage of highly qualified specialists and managers with a delay of around 30 years. This problem is acute in Germany, but virulent in all western industrialized countries. They therefore compete for highly qualified specialists. V. a. Tax, social and migration policy play a role. The countries of the Anglo-American area have actively geared their migration policy to recruiting qualified workers ("skilled immigration"), while from Europe - especially from Eastern Europe - a stream of qualified workers has set in towards the Anglo-American area. This results in a European trend towards dequalification, which is likely to weaken Europe's competitiveness further.

Situation in developing countries

Selected countries
(as of 2016)
Country Births / woman
Niger 6.62
Mali 5.95
Somalia 5.89
Afghanistan 5.22
Congo 4.63
Iraq 4.06
Yemen 3.77
Algeria 2.74
India 2.45
Iran 1.83
China 1.60
Thailand 1.51
Source: cia.gov u. a.

As mentioned, only a few underdeveloped countries are currently (2012) affected by a population decline, most of these countries are confronted with the AIDS problem: Botswana (-0.04%), Cook Islands (-1.2%), Dominica (- 0.08%), Virgin Islands (-0.12%), Samoa (-0.2%), South Africa (-0.4%), Swaziland (0.23%), Trinidad and Tobago (-0.87% ). Some other countries have only very low growth due to the AIDS problem: Zimbabwe (+0.62%). However, even an emerging country like China with a population of over a billion will enter the phase of population decline in a few years' time if the fertility rate of 1.54 does not increase. However, this is very unlikely due to the government's enforced one-child policy. In addition, with an average decline in births of four children per woman in China, the fertility rate has fallen significantly over the past thirty years. Despite the increase in the number of children allowed to two children in 2016, the number of births continued to decline in 2017 and 2018.

Algeria, Iran, Mexico, Thailand, Tunisia and Turkey have also seen a sharp decline in the birth rate in recent years. If the transition countries are excluded, the decline in the birth rate in Iran is particularly strong. The city of Tehran achieved an estimated fertility rate of 1.4 in 2000, which is itself below the average for industrialized countries. In 2006 the metropolitan area had 1.5 children per woman. The lowest fertility in Iran is in the provinces of Gilan and Mazandaran on the Caspian Sea, which only reached 1.3 in 2006. This is already lower than in Germany with 1.43. Furthermore, the country is losing population due to emigration. She goes to the capital Tehran on the one hand, and abroad on the other. There are now 32 developing and emerging countries in which the number of births is insufficient to maintain the current population size.

Ecological consequences

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In terms of global environmental protection , a population decline is seen as desirable. This could reduce increasing pollution and resource consumption. However, the thinning of rural areas, for example through urbanization, could also have negative consequences for the environment.

Social and Political Consequences

As a result of urbanization, in some areas, due to a smaller and mostly older population, many supply facilities (e.g. shops, schools, etc.) can no longer be maintained and the remaining population has to move to the next more central location. According to many experts, the volume of traffic in such regions will increase sharply. One solution would be the abandonment of entire localities, which for political reasons only appears to be enforceable in individual cases.

Positive impact

A long-term decline in the number of births is reflected in less pressure on the labor market. Since, in the event of a decline in the birth rate, younger cohorts have a lower birth rate than older cohorts, the number of apprenticeship applicants decreases and thus youth unemployment is reduced. This phenomenon was observed in Germany in 2010. In 2011 this development continued. In addition, when the population declines, more resources are available per person and there is less competition for the population. Per capita income can grow when the population falls. In addition, there is an improvement in the quality of life due to less traffic, less pollution, improved air and water quality and reforestation.

Historical

Population decline without external factors such as hunger, epidemics or war is historically an exception. So far this is only known from the history of the Roman Empire. The Roman Emperor Augustus passed marriage laws that were supposed to solve the problem of population decline, especially in the ruling class. Men between 25 and 60 and women between 20 and 50 years had to be married accordingly. If not, they would have to pay fines. These regulations only affected residents with Roman citizenship.

literature

See also

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ In 2050 there will be 9.2 billion people on earth. In: Handelsblatt. March 13, 2007.
  2. ↑ Ralf E. Ulrich: How does HIV / AIDS affect population development? (PDF) ralf-ulrich.de. Archived from the original on May 18, 2005. Retrieved September 5, 2011.
  3. ↑ Mothers, your country needs you! December 25, 2018 ( bbc.com [accessed March 27, 2019]).
  4. ↑ Fewer births: China's birth rate drops to its lowest level since 1949. Accessed March 27, 2019 .
  5. ↑ The decline in the birth rate eases the training market. on: Spiegel Online. April 6, 2011, accessed April 6, 2011.
  6. ↑ Vocational Training Report 2012: The training situation for young people has improved further on: Federal Ministry of Education and Research. October 15, 2011, accessed October 17, 2012.
  7. ↑ https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/02/scheidel-great-leveler-inequality-violence/517164/
  8. ↑ https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/04/human-sacrifice-may-have-helped-societies-become-more-complex
  9. ↑ http://msh.councilforeconed.org/documents/978-1-56183-758-8-activity-lesson-15.pdf
  10. ↑ https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/31/european-colonization-of-americas-helped-cause-climate-change
  11. ↑ The Marriage Laws of Augustus (English)

Web links

Wikisource: The population problem (contribution to the state of 1914 in Germany)  - sources and full texts
Wiktionary: population decline  - explanations of meanings, word origins, synonyms, translations