Russian economic crisis 2015

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The Russian economy slipped into a severe recession in 2015 due to a number of different factors . The crisis began gradually, with the crash of the Russian ruble and price drops on the Moscow stock exchange, and the real economy has also been affected since autumn 2014.

trigger

Collapse in oil prices

At the end of 2014 and the beginning of 2015, the oil price fell sharply on the international market, falling from USD 110 at the beginning of 2014 to USD 59 at the end of 2014 and bottoming out at under USD 30 in January 2016. The reasons for the crash are the increasing extraction of crude oil in the USA through fracking , the lower demand due to lower economic growth, especially in China and Latin America, and the fact that the OPEC countries have refrained from reducing production. Since Russia has linked gas prices to the development of oil prices, the second important export good is also heavily affected by this decline.

Overall, the Russian economy is heavily dependent on the export of oil, gas and their processed products, with 68% of all exports in this area in 2013. Due to the strong concentration, the real economy naturally suffers greatly from the drop in prices on the world market.

Ukraine crisis

In the course of the Ukraine crisis in 2014 and the subsequent annexation of Crimea by Russia, both the European Union and the USA decided on sanctions against Russia, which mainly focus on the Russian banking sector, the oil industry and the imports of armaments. At the same time, Russia reacted with import restrictions, which mainly affect agricultural products from the EU, USA, Australia, Norway and Canada. In December 2015 the sanctions were tightened again by the USA.

course

In the course of the economic crisis in Russia, the country's economic output is also declining. After GDP grew by only a moderate 1.3% in 2013, growth shrank in 2014 to just 0.6%. For 2015 and 2016, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) initially predicted a decline in GDP of 3.7% and 1.8% for Russia. In July 2016, the forecast for 2016 was revised upwards slightly and a plus was even forecast for 2017.

The crisis had a strong impact on the Russian automobile market. After 2012 with the highest number of sales (around 3 million), the sales figures fell and in 2016, despite a recovery, only reached half the figure of 2012. The following table gives an overview of sales figures in Russia after 2011:

year January February March April May June July August September October November December
2011 127,564 165,518 223.429 235.711 235.170 246.429 224,620 224,764 235,552 240,865 239,539 251.414
2012 154.406 206,873 252.816 266.267 260.944 272.125 255.560 258.761 259,582 253.732 240.32 253.158
2013 162,077 210,666 244.030 245.334 229,670 241,346 234,569 213.915 246,895 234,481 231,982 264.257
2014 152,662 206.476 243,335 226,526 201,487 199,398 180,767 172.015 197.233 211,365 229,439 270,653
2015 115,390 128,298 139,850 132,456 125.801 140.161 131,087 138,670 140,867 129,958 131,572 146.963
2016 81,849 111.145 125.917 121.272 107,665 122,633 109,410

In order to mitigate the massive market slump in the automotive sector, Russia introduced a scrapping premium in September 2014 totaling € 190 million. With this premium there is a government subsidy of up to € 1,000 per car, but only if it was produced in Russia.

Despite these measures, the auto market in Russia continued to collapse significantly. In November 2014, the Spanish car brand Seat announced that it would withdraw from the Russian market. So far, Seat has not produced any vehicles in Russia, but only exported them there.

In March 2015, Opel announced that it would cease its business activities in Russia, and the GM plant in St. Petersburg was closed in the middle of the year. As a result, the government launched an immediate program of € 167 million to prevent other automakers from leaving. To provide additional support for the automotive industry, it was decided in August 2015 not to introduce the Euro 5 emissions standard until autumn 2017; originally January 2016 was planned for this. Nevertheless, a few days later the Japanese car company Toyota stopped production of the Toyota Land Cruiser in the Russian plant in Vladivostok , which was then closed.

In the third quarter of 2015, the Russian Ministry of Economic Affairs had to announce that economic output in the third quarter had shrunk by a total of 4.1% year on year. Due to the low oil price and the resulting drastic drop in government revenue, the government cut the government budget in 2016 by at least € 5.9 billion.

From June 9 to 17, 2016, the US manufacturer Ford had to stop production at the Russian plant in Vsevoloschsk , due to extremely low demand. A production stop in St. Petersburg was planned for July 2016.

According to the Russian tax authorities, of the 6,000 German companies based in Russia, around 400 left the country in 2015 alone. Nevertheless, the German Foreign Ministry positively stated in October 2016 that the remaining companies had survived the crisis.

supporting documents

  1. ↑ Who's afraid of cheap oil, The Economist, January 23rd 2016
  2. ↑ http://www.finanzen.net/rohstoffe/oelpreis
  3. ↑ Export trade: Russia's exports are based on gas and oil. In: Zeit Online. July 24, 2014, accessed June 6, 2016 .
  4. ↑ http://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/handel-konsumgueter/ausffekt-der-russland-sanktionen-russland-schiesst-mit-kanonen-auf-spatzen/10304292.html
  5. ↑ http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/index.php
  6. ↑ Changed forecast: IMF predicts economic growth for Russia in 2017. In: Spiegel Online . July 13, 2016, accessed June 10, 2018 .
  7. ↑ [1] , RBTH, June 20, 2017
  8. ↑ http://bestsellingcarsblog.com/category/russia
  9. ↑ Archived copy ( Memento of the original dated December 10, 2015 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. @1@ 2Template: Webachiv / IABot / www.automobil-produktion.de
  10. ↑ http://www.automobil-produktion.de/2015/03/russland-lene-sofortprogramm-ueber-167-mio-us-dollar-fuer-autobauer-auf
  11. ↑ http://www.automobil-produktion.de/2015/08/toyota-stoppt-produktion-in-russland
  12. ↑ "focus.de, companies flee the country: Russia goes under with the oil price"
  13. ↑ Russia plant Vsevolozhsk: Ford temporarily stops the production lines
  14. ↑ http://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/DE/Aussenpolitik/Laender/Laenderinfos/RussischeFoederation/Wirtschaft_node.html