Test market simulation

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The test market simulation (abbreviated: TMS) is a procedure within market research , which is supposed to realistically simulate the market reality in the form of a model, including a realistic play through. The aim is to quantify the market opportunities of a new product (primarily from the consumer goods sector , especially FMCG ) before it is launched.

concept

In contrast to other models of market research such as B. the market test , the test market simulation is characterized by the collection of data in a controlled laboratory situation. The purchase and repurchase behavior as well as the perception process for a new product are to be simulated while excluding the public and competition. A group of consumers selected by random sampling is shown a new product in several experiments using marketing instruments. The knowledge about the market opportunities should be gained through questioning and observation. In particular, the possible market share and sales volume should be forecast.

execution

There are various methods of implementation, such as Assessor , Bases , TESI , Designor , Sensor and Microtest . These are offered by various market research companies. In principle, however, these methods follow a similar scheme, which is divided into about nine phases:

  1. Initially, 200 to 400 test persons are recruited as potential buyers of the new product, with personal data such as brand awareness, brand usage, buying behavior, attitudes towards existing brands and socio-demographic data being collected.
  2. Carrying out an initial interview, whereby consumption habits, brand preferences, demographics and the relevant relevant set (selection from a certain product range that the consumer is considering when making a purchase) are determined. The test subjects then assign points to the products, with a preference scale for the most important product properties being created.
  3. Confrontation of the test persons with advertising of both the test product and the various existing products. This can e.g. B. happen in the form of commercials.
  4. Purchase simulation in a test studio (e.g. test supermarket), with the test subjects being given an income or vouchers that they can freely use. The aim is to determine how high the initial purchase rate is for the test product.
  5. Carrying out a post-purchase interview, asking for reasons to buy and reasons not to buy. When purchasing the test product, the test subjects receive the competing product for free and vice versa.
  6. Implementation of the home-use phase. The test subjects receive both the test product and the competing products and can try them out at home for several weeks.
  7. Follow-up interview after the end of the home use phase. The same questions are asked as in the initial interview. Here the repurchase rate is to be determined.
  8. Second purchase simulation, whereby in particular strengths and weaknesses of the new product are to be determined.
  9. Extrapolation of the results.

The entire duration of the implementation is approx. 10 weeks and costs of around 50,000 euros are incurred.

rating

The advantages of the test market simulation are its comparatively short duration and the low costs. It can also be kept secret from the competition. Disadvantages are the often unrealistic implementation in a test studio and the insufficient inclusion of advertising. When selecting the subjects, errors in the sample can occur, which can impair the representativeness. In addition, there is only a low external validity of the test market simulation.

Web links

literature

  • Ludwig Berekoven, Werner Eckert, Peter Ellenrieder: Test market simulation . In: Market Research . Springer Fachmedien (1991).
  • Wolfgang Gaul, Daniel Baier, Apostolos Apergis: Procedure for test market simulation in Germany . In: Marketing: Journal for Research and Practice (1996), 18 (3), 203–217.
  • Bernd Erichson: Methodology of the test market simulation . In: Planning & Analysis , Heft 2 (1996b), pp. 54–57.
  • Heinrich A. Litzenroth: Test market simulation using the example of personal care products . In: Handbuch Produktmanagement (Ed. Sönke Albers, Andreas Herrmann). Springer Gabler (2000). Pp. 963-994. ISBN 978-3-663-05718-5
  • Werner Pepels : Market test procedure . In: Marketing , Munich: Oldenbourg Wissenschaftsverlag (2004). ISBN 3-486-27538-0
  • Gerhard Raab, Alexander Unger, Fritz Unger: Methods of Marketing Research , Wiesbaden: Springer Gabler (2009). ISBN 3-8349-0992-0
  • Werner Pepels: Special Applications of Marketing Research . In: Handbook of Marketing . Oldenbourg Wissenschaftsverlag (2012). ISBN 3-486-70524-5

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ Ludwig Berekoven, Werner Eckert, Peter Ellenrieder: Marktforschung , p. 178
  2. ^ Pepels: Handbuch des Marketing , pp. 294-295
  3. ↑ Raab, Unger, Unger: Methods of Marketing Research , p. 435
  4. ^ Pepels: Marketing , p. 272