Youth Bulge

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Jacek Malczewski's painting Melancholia , in Gunnar Heinsohn's opinion, symbolizes the potential for conflict in a disproportionately fast growing male population

Youth excess or youth bulge is a term first used by Gary Fuller in 1995 to describe the disproportionate bulge of the demographic age pyramid in a society. According to Fuller, a youth bulge occurs wherever 15 to 24 year olds make up at least 20 percent, or 0 to 15 year olds at least 30 percent of society as a whole.

Representative

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Number of children per woman on a world map of the birth rate in the CIA World Factbook 2015

The French conflict researcher Gaston Bouthoul suspected early on that a high proportion of young people in the population is the cause of armed conflicts. He described the demographic factor as a fundamental structural element of collective aggressiveness and put forward the thesis that the social phenomenon of war corresponds to the social need for selection. Bouthoul speaks in this context of a restoration of a “demographic balance”, although this term is not explained.

While Bouthoul sees a biological necessity in war, other authors such as the Norwegian peace researcher Henrik Urdal point out that the main reason for the growing propensity for violence is the limited absorption capacity of the labor market: According to empirical studies, it is precisely the combination of a large proportion of young people and a weak economy that promotes wars. These factors are also correlated with a weak political system . In the case of a strong youth cohort, struggles for distribution over social positions intensified, in which many get nothing. Experiences with unemployment and a lack of future prospects are common in such a society and lead to disappointment and frustration. If there is also a lack of political influence or an educational expansion with a simultaneous lack of jobs, the opportunity costs of participating in violent confrontations fall . If there are no other alternatives, violence in various forms is an alternative to be taken seriously in order to escape the so-called bottleneck phenomenon.

According to Gunnar Heinsohn , youth bulges create the conditions for civil war , genocide , imperialism and terrorism . If large parts of the male youth are adequately nourished, but have no prospect of finding a suitable position in society, the only option open to them is violence: “People are begging for bread. People kill for status and power. ”According to Heinsohn, political rulers made use of this demographic characteristic of the population, such as: B. the Egyptian President Nasser in the war of attrition . On the other hand, from the end of the 15th century onwards, birth control in Europe was put under the death penalty and thus - according to Heinsohn - a potential for violence was created which made the rise of Europe possible and subsequently led to the European conquest of large parts of the known world. For centuries there were birth rates in Europe like in today's Pakistan or Afghanistan .

For the criticism and reception of the theses s. the "War Demographics" section in the author's article.

literature

  • Gary Fuller, The Demographic Backdrop to Ethnic Conflict: A Geographic Overview , in: Central Intelligence Agency, ed., The Challenge of Ethnic Conflict to National and International Order in the 1990's, Washington: CIA (RTT 95-10039, October), p 151-154
  • Christian G. Mesquida and Neil I. Wiener, Male age composition and severity of conflicts , in: Politics and the Life Sciences 18 (1999) 181-189, accessible at mve-liste.de ( Memento from September 29, 2007 in the Internet Archive )
  • Gaston Bouthoul, Child Murder out of State: The War as a Compensation for Population Policy. (Original title. L'infanticide diffère translated by Karin von Zabiensky) DVA, Stuttgart 1972, ISBN 3-421-01618-6 .
  • Steffen Kröhnert: Why do wars arise? What influence do demographic and economic developments have on the emergence of armed conflicts. Berlin Institute for Population and Development , Berlin 2006 ( online PDF, 15 pages, 0.7 MB ).
  • Uwe Wagschal, Thomas Metz and Nicolas Schwank, A “Demographic Peace?” The Influence of Population Factors on Internal and International Conflicts , in: Zeitschrift für Politikwissenschaft 18 (3) (2008) 353-383.
  • Aurel Croissant et al., Cultural Conflicts Since 1945 - The Cultural Dimensions of Global Conflicts . Nomos, Baden-Baden 2009.

Web links

Individual evidence

  1. ^ David Lam: Youth Surplus and Youth Unemployment . In: IZA World of Labor . May 1, 2014, doi : 10.15185 / izawol.26 ( iza.org [accessed October 22, 2019]).
  2. ↑ Heinsohn: Sons and World Power , p. 18
  3. ↑ Heinsohn: Sons and World Power , p. 81 ff.
  4. ↑ Gunnar Heinsohn , War Demography