Extraordinary election to the United States Senate in Alabama 2017

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Extraordinary election to the United States Senate in Alabama
December 12, 2017
Previous ordinary election
2014 ← 		Flag of Alabama.svg Next ordinary election
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Doug Jones Flag (cropped) .jpg
Judge Roy Moore (cropped) .jpg
Doug Jones Roy Moore
Democratic Party Republican Party
Be right (%) 50.0 48.3
Votes total 673.896 651.972
2017 United States Senate special election in Alabama results map by county.svg
 Jones
  • 40-50%
  • 50-60%
  • 60-70%
  • 70-80%
  • 80-90%
    		•  Moors
  • 40-50%
  • 50-60%
  • 60-70%
  • 70-80%
  • 80-90%
    		•
    Derz. senator Luther Strange

    The extraordinary Senate election in Alabama on December 12, 2017 determined the successor to US Attorney General Jeff Sessions in his previous mandate in the United States Senate for the state of Alabama . For the Republicans, the former judge Roy Moore , for the Democrats, the former prosecutor Doug Jones . After allegations became public that Moore had molested minors around 1980, the race was considered completely open.

    Jones prevailed over Moore by a few ten thousand votes.

    Background and implementation

    Sessions, who had held this Senate seat since 1997, was established in February 2017 as United States Attorney General (Attorney General) in the cabinet of Donald Trump nominated. In the US political system prevails in accordance with Article 1 of the Constitution of the United States enshrined ineligibility Clause strict separation of office and mandate , which is why sessions had to give up his Senate seat. Since Sessions' mandate would have lasted until January 3, 2021, an extraordinary election to fill his Senate seat became necessary. The then Governor Robert J. Bentley therefore scheduled an extraordinary by-election for this Senate seat and appointed Sessions' interim successor on February 9, 2017, Luther Strange , the then Attorney General of the State of Alabama, as a temporary Senator. Bentley originally set the first Tuesday in November as the usual election day in the United States, i.e. November 6, 2017, as the date for the by-election , which his successor, Kay Ivey , postponed to December 12, 2017 in April.

    Strange tried to get his party's by-election nomination but lost the Republican primary on September 26, 2017 to Roy Moore , a former state Supreme Court Justice . Moore met the former United States Attorney for the Northern District of Alabama, Doug Jones, who as a candidate in the primaries the Democrats had prevailed. Only Moore and Jones were listed on the ballot paper . Other candidates did not qualify for election. However, it was still possible to vote for other candidates by noting their names on the ballot paper ( “Write-in candidate” ).

    Survey

    With a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R + 15, Alabama is considered a very safe state for Republicans. The previous incumbent Jeff Sessions had won the Senate elections in Alabama by a wide margin since he took office in 1996. In the last election in 2014 , the Democrats did not nominate an opponent.

    Before November 9, Moore had led by an average of 48:42 percent, which is much closer than usual for a Republican candidate. On that day, the Washington Post published a statement by a woman that she was seduced into sexual acts by Moore when she was 14 in 1979. In a first survey the day after the abuse allegations became known, in which 82 percent of the participants said they had heard of the allegations, Moore was on par with the Democratic opponent at 46 percent. At the same time, 54 percent (and 73 of the Republicans) said Moore should keep his candidacy. The surveys since the allegations became known have seen one candidate and the other in the lead. Because voter turnout in by-elections is generally difficult to assess, and especially given the extraordinary circumstances of this election, the polls are considered to be an inferior indicator of the result.

    source Survey period sample Fault
    tolerance     		Roy
    Moore (R)     		Doug
    Jones (D)     		Other draw
    Washington Post / Schar School 27.-30. November 2017 739 ± 4.5% 47% 50% 3% -
    Change Research 26.-27. November 2017 1868 - 49% 44% - 7%
    Emerson College 25-27 November 2017 50% 44% - 6%
    WBRC-TV / Strategy Research 20th November 2017 3000 ± 2.0% 47% 45% 3% 5%
    WT&S Consulting (R) 18.-20. November 2017 11,641 ± 1.2% 46% 40% - 13%
    Change Research 15.-16. November 2017 2090 43% 46% - 11%
    Fox News 13-15 November 2017 649 LV ± 3.5% 42% 50% 2% 7%
    823 RV ± 3.0% 40% 49% 2% 7%
    FOX10 News / Strategy Research November 13, 2017 3000 ± 2.0% 49% 43% - 8th %
    NRSC (R) 12-13 November 2017 500 39% 51% - 10%
    WT&S Consulting (R) November 11, 2017 1536 ± 3.3% 50% 40% - 11%
    Emerson College 9-11 November 2017 600 ± 3.9% 49% 40% - 11%
    JMC Analytics (R) 9-11 November 2017 575 ± 4.1% 42% 46% 2% 6%
    Change Research 9-11 November 2017 1855 44% 40% 3% 13%
    Google Consumer Surveys 9-11 November 2017 534 ± 4.2% 52% 49% - -
    Gravis Marketing November 10, 2017 478 ± 4.5% 48% 46% - 6%
    WT&S Consulting (R) 9th November 2017 1354 ± 3.5% 50% 39% - 11%
    Opinion Savvy 9th November 2017 515 ± 4.3% 46% 46% 4% 4%
    WBRC-TV / Strategy Research October 19 - November 8, 2017 2200 ± 2.0% 51% 40% - 9%
    NRSC (R) 6-7 November 2017 51% 42% - 8th %
    Axis Research (R-SLF) 24.-26. October 2017 503 ± 4.5% 56% 39% - 5%
    FOX10 News / Strategy Research 23 October 2017 3000 ± 3.0% 52% 41% - 7%
    WBRC-TV / Strategy Research 16th October 2017 3000 ± 2.5% 51% 40% - 9%
    Fox News 14.-16. October 2017 801 ± 3.5% 42% 42% 3% 11%
    NRSC (R) 3rd to 5th October 2017 53% 37% - 10%
    Cygnal / L2 2nd to 5th October 2017 497 ± 4.4% 49% 41% - 9%
    JMC Analytics (R) September 30th - October 1st, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 48% 40% 1 % 11%
    Opinion Savvy 27.-28. September 2017 590 ± 4.0% 50% 45% - 5%
    Google Consumer Surveys 22-25 September 2017 451 ± 4.0% 58% 42% - 0%
    Emerson College 21-23 September 2017 519 ± 4.3% 52% 30% - 18%
    Emerson College 8th-9th September 2017 416 ± 4.8% 44% 40% - 16%
    Google Consumer Surveys 15-17 May 2017 335 ± 5.2% 56% 44% - 0%

    Web links

    Individual evidence

    1. ↑ Steffens, Frauke: Senate by-election: Alabama says no to Roy Moore - and to Trump . In: faz.net , December 13, 2017 (accessed December 13, 2017).
    2. ↑ United States Constitution , Art. I, Section 6, Paragraph 2 (English). Retrieved November 15, 2017.
    3. ^ Cook Partisan Voting Index: Map and District List , accessed November 12, 2017.
    4. ↑ State of Alabama Canvass of Results, General Election November 4, 2014 (English). Retrieved November 12, 2017.
    5. ↑ Clare Malone, Harry Enten: 9 Key Questions About Roy Moore And The Alabama Senate Race. In: FiveThirtyEight , November 9, 2017 (English).
    6. ↑ Ben Kamisar: Alabama poll: Moore and Jones tied following scandal. In: The Hill , November 10, 2017 (English).
    7. ↑ Steven Shepard: Is Roy Moore winning? Don't ask the pollsters. In: Politico , December 3, 2017 (English); Mark Blumenthal: Alabama Senate race: a poll without a prediction. In: Surveymonkey.com , December 9, 2017 (English); Nate Cohn: Why No One Knows What Will Happen in Alabama. In: The New York Times , December 12, 2017.
    8. ↑ Michael Scherer: Alabama race is neck and neck, with voters divided over Roy Moore allegations, poll finds (en-US) . In: Washington Post , December 2, 2017. 
    9. ↑ Moore Opens Up 49-44 Lead in Alabama; Just 9% of Trump Voters Believe Allegations Against Moore . November 28, 2017. Retrieved November 28, 2017.
    10. ^ Emerson College Polling . Emerson College. November 28, 2017. Retrieved November 28, 2017.
    11. ↑ Rick Journey: New poll shows Roy Moore and Doug Jones in statistical tie . November 21, 2017. Retrieved November 21, 2017.
    12. ^ Paul Gattis: New Senate polls have Roy Moore in lead, Doug Jones close . AL.com. November 21, 2017. Retrieved November 22, 2017.
    13. ↑ Jones Holds 3-Point Lead In Alabama Following 7-Point Shift Since Sunday . November 17, 2017. Retrieved November 17, 2017.
    14. ^ Fox News Poll . November 16, 2017. Archived from the original on November 16, 2017. Info: The archive link has been inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. Retrieved November 16, 2017. @1@ 2Template: Webachiv / IABot / andersonrobbins.com
    15. ↑ Exclusive FOX10 Poll: Undecided voters may hold key to Moore / Jones race . November 15, 2017. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
    16. ↑ a b c Alex Isenstadt: NRSC poll: Moore trails Jones by 12 , Politico. 15th November 2017. 
    17. ↑ Lisa Hagen: Republican poll: Moore 12 points behind Democrat Jones , The Hill. 15th November 2017. 
    18. ^ A b Exclusive - Alabama Polls: Judge Roy Moore Maintains Double Digit Lead Over Democrat Doug Jones Before, After WaPo Smear . November 12, 2017. Retrieved November 12, 2017.
    19. ↑ Emerson College Poll: Moore Leads Jones 55% -45% in Alabama Senate Race. Majority of Voters Not Shaken By Bombshell Moore Allegations . November 13, 2017. Retrieved November 13, 2017.
    20. ↑ JMC Analytics & Polling: Alabama Senate Poll Results . Retrieved November 12, 2017.
    21. ↑ Roy Moore Was Hurt By Abuse Allegations, But He's Still Ahead By 4 Points . November 11, 2017. Retrieved November 11, 2017.
    22. ↑ Alabama Senate Race is a tossup - Roy Moore loses significant support after WAPO exposé . CB Polling Inc .. November 11, 2017. Archived from the original on November 13, 2017. Info: The archive link has been inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. Retrieved November 13, 2017. @1@ 2Template: Webachiv / IABot / cbpolling.press
    23. ↑ Big League Gravis Alabama poll: Roy Moore clings to slim lead over Doug Jones, 48% to 46% . Big League Politics. November 11, 2017.
    24. ↑ Alabama Senate Poll 10/11/17 . Opinion Savvy / Decision Desk HQ. November 10, 2017. Retrieved November 10, 2017.
    25. ↑ Rick Journey: Moore maintains 11-point edge over Jones in new poll . November 7, 2017. Retrieved November 8, 2017.
    26. ^ Alabama Special Election Poll . October 31, 2017. Accessed October 31, 2017.
    27. ^ Moore leads Jones in Senate Poll . October 23, 2017. Retrieved October 23, 2017.
    28. ↑ Rick Journey: Roy Moore has 11-point edge over Doug Jones in new Senate race poll . October 18, 2017. Archived from the original on October 19, 2017. Info: The archive link has been inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. Retrieved October 20, 2017. @1@ 2Template: Webachiv / IABot / www.wbrc.com
    29. ^ Fox News Poll Alabama . October 17, 2017. Retrieved October 20, 2017.
    30. ^ Matt Hubbard: Survey of General Special Election Voters in Alabama . October 12, 2017. Retrieved October 20, 2017.
    31. ↑ JMC Analytics & Polling: Alabama Senate Poll Results . Retrieved October 20, 2017.
    32. ^ Alabama Senate Poll . September 29, 2017. Retrieved October 20, 2017.
    33. ^ AJ: Moore surges ahead to early lead over Doug Jones in the Alabama Senate Race . September 27, 2017. Archived from the original on October 2, 2017. Info: The archive link has been inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. Retrieved October 20, 2017. @1@ 2Template: Webachiv / IABot / cbpolling.press
    34. ↑ Press Release: Strange Closes Gap. Emerson College Polling Society, September 25, 2017, accessed September 25, 2017 .
    35. ^ Emerson College Poll: Moore with Significant Lead Over Strange for GOP US Senate Nomination in Alabama. Democrat Doug Jones in statistical tie with both Republicans for General Election. Emerson.edu, accessed November 12, 2017 .
    36. ↑ Google Surveys Survey report .