2020 United States Senate election

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2020 United States Senate election
3rd November 2020
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Mitch McConnell 2016 official photo (cropped) .jpg Chuck Schumer official photo (cropped) .jpg
Party leader Mitch McConnell Chuck Schumer
Political party Republican Party Democratic Party
Sit before the election 53 *47 *
Seats after the election 50 *50 *
Profit loss −3 +3
* 2 Independents belong to the Democratic Group
2020 Senate election results map.svg
Starting position: Retained seat for Democrats Retained seat for Republicans Gain for Democrats Gain for Republicans No 2020 Senate election





Distribution of seats in the 117th Congress
  
A total of 100 seats

In the election to the Senate of the United States in 2020 was scheduled on November 3, 2020, the composition of the upper chamber of the Congress of the United States determined. There were 35 of the 100 Senate seats to choose from, the 33 class II senators and by-elections in Arizona (for the mandate of the late John McCain ) and Georgia (for the seat of the resigned Johnny Isakson ). The senators were elected by direct election for six years by the electorate of the respective state , which they in the Senate of the United Statesrepresent. In its new composition, the Senate of the 117th Congress met for the first time on January 3, 2021.

The Senate election coincided with other elections in the United States , including the House of Representatives and the Presidential election . In the last regular election of Class II Senators in 2014 , Republicans had taken a majority from the Democrats, with an increase of nine seats. Mitch McConnell has been the Senate majority leader since then .

Starting position

Since the last Senate election in 2018 , Republicans had a majority of 53 seats versus 45 seats for the Democrats, plus two Independents ( Bernie Sanders for Vermont and Angus King for Maine ) belonging to the Democratic group. For the Republicans, three MPs did not stand for re-election between 2018 and 2020 ( Pat Roberts for Kansas , Lamar Alexander for Tennessee and Mike Enzi for Wyoming ), for the Democrats one ( Tom Udall for New Mexico ).

After the Democrats had to defend significantly more senatorial posts than the Republicans in the last election in 2018 and lost four seats in structurally republican-dominated "red" states , the situation was reversed in 2020. In this election, the Republicans defended 23 seats (including the by-elections) and the Democrats 12. Most of the 2020 Republican Senate seats were in traditionally Republican-leaning states, which is why political observers saw the Republicans in a good position to watch their majority hold. In the 2018 election, national trends already played a stronger role than before, when regional characteristics and the personalities of the applicants were more important. In the last Senate election, which took place at the same time as a presidential election and its broad mobilization - 2016 - the Senate elections in every state had the same outcome as the presidential vote there.

To get a majority in the Senate, the Democrats must win three or four seats, depending on the outcome of the simultaneous presidential election ( the United States Vice President has the casting vote in a 50-50 tie). While the Democratic mandate holder Doug Jones in Conservative Alabama , who won a 2017 by-election , is considered particularly at risk, the Democrats have chances for the Republican seats in Arizona ( Martha McSally ), Colorado ( Cory Gardner ), Maine ( Susan Collins ) and North Carolina ( Thom Tillis ) granted. In Arizona and Colorado, different predictions put the Democratic candidate ahead, while in North Carolina and Maine the Republican and Democratic candidates are ranked as equal.

The Democratic seat in Michigan ( Gary Peters ) and the Republican seats in Georgia ( David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler ), Iowa ( Joni Ernst ), Kansas (open), Montana ( Steve Daines ) and South Carolina ( Lindsey Graham ) are also potentially contested ) classified. The chance for the Democrats to win at least a working majority (50 seats and the Vice President) increased during the summer. In addition, two Democratic candidates are former governor ( John Hickenlooper from Colorado) and incumbent governor ( Steve Bullock in Montana) of the respective state. Before the election, the chance of a secure Democratic Senate majority (51 seats) was 63% and a 50/50 majority was even 75%.

Results

Nationwide results

On election evening, the gains for the respective candidates in Colorado and Alabama came in quickly, as expected. In the hotly contested states such as Arizona, Iowa, Montana and North Carolina, the Democratic challengers had a big head start because of the postal votes already counted. However, their lead shrank until the incumbents caught up and were able to defend almost all Senate seats except for Arizona. In Michigan, however, Republican candidate John James was way ahead from the start, as there, conversely, postal votes were not counted until late. In the end, Gary Peters was unexpectedly just able to defend his seat. In the end, the Republicans won 50 seats, while the Democrats had just gained one seat to 48 seats. The two previously Republican seats in Georgia remained vacant for the time being, as a runoff election was required for both seats (see below).

Elections in Georgia

‹  2014  •   •  2026 › USA GeorgiaGeorgia
Election of a US Senator for Georgia
Class II senator's seat
3rd November 2020
Jon Ossoff 2020 2 (cropped) .jpg
 Democratic Party
Jon Ossoff
be right 2,374,519  
  
 47.95%
David Perdue official Senate photo.jpg
 Republican Party
David Perdue
be right 2,462,617  
  
 49.73%
Results by county
Map of results by county
    
Ossoff
    
Perdue
Runoff
January 5, 2021
Jon Ossoff 2020 2 (cropped) .jpg
 Democratic Party
Jon Ossoff
be right 2,238,939  
  
 50.4%
David Perdue official Senate photo.jpg
 Republican Party
David Perdue
be right 2,203,324  
  
 49.6%
Before the election
David Perdue
Republican Party

The Republican incumbent David Perdue just missed the necessary absolute majority in the November 3rd election in Georgia with 49.73% against his Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff , who received 47.95% of the vote.

In addition, there was an extraordinary by-election for a Class III Senate seat between incumbent Kelly Loeffler , Doug Collins and Raphael Warnock .

Since none of the candidates received an absolute majority, a runoff election had to be held. This was held on January 5th, with Ossoff and Warnock, both Democrats, winning.

Federal political significance of the runoff election

The outcome of the runoff decided on the majority in the US Senate: Before the two runoffs, the Democrats had 46, plus 2 independent, votes in the Senate, the Republicans 50. The elected Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris decides on votes with a tie from January 20 2021, which means a majority for the Democrats with a 50:50 vote.

By winning the two runoff elections, the newly elected government under President Joe Biden can implement all reform projects, as the House of Representatives is controlled by the Democrats in addition to the Senate .

Postal voting and early voting ("Early Voting")

According to the United States Elections Project of the University of Florida , almost 3.09 million registered voters had voted by January 4th. That is 40 percent of the registered voters in Georgia, numerically.

According to the electoral law, absentee votes from citizens and military personnel from overseas who are eligible to vote can arrive and be counted until Friday, January 8th, as well as absentee votes from within Germany, provided they are postmarked up to and including election day.

In the original election in November, a total of around 5 million votes were cast (including election day voters).

Result

The polling stations closed at 7 p.m. local time (1 a.m. CET).

On the morning of January 6th, after counting 98% of the electoral districts, the Democrat Ossoff was very close with 50.15% of the vote, ahead of the Republican Perdue with 49.85% of the vote. Even the Democrat Warnock was after counting about 98% of the electoral districts with 50.4% of the votes, just ahead of the incumbent Loeffler with 49.6% of the votes. Reputable media outlets such as Decision Desk HQ , Associated Press , The New York Times and NBC News declared Warnock and Ossoff the election winners on the evening of January 6th.

The turnout was more than 4.4 million votes cast of the approximately 7.23 million active registered voters in Georgia. This corresponds to a turnout of around 62%.

Web links

supporting documents

  1. ↑ https://www.politico.com/2020-election/race-forecasts-and-predictions//
  2. ↑ https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/22/politics/senate-democrats-republicans-2020/index.html
  3. ↑ Alexi McCammond: Democrats sound alarm on “massive” GOP Senate advantage in 2020. In: Axios , July 29, 2019.
  4. ↑ Kyle Kondik: Senate 2020: Republican exposure on paper, but not necessarily in practice. In: Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball , University of Virginia Center for Politics, December 13, 2018; Tara Golshan, Ella Nilsen: Democrats' extremely uphill battle to retake the Senate majority in 2020, explained. In: Vox.com , July 9, 2019; James Arkin: Cash floods crucial 2020 Senate races. In: Politico , July 17, 2019.
  5. ^ Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections. April 28, 2020, accessed June 17, 2020 (English).
  6. ↑ RealClearPolitics - 2020 Election Maps - Battle for the Senate 2020. Accessed June 17, 2020 .
  7. ↑ Who Wins 2020? Senate Election Predictions & Key Races , Politico. Retrieved January 9, 2020.
  8. ↑ [1] , 538. Retrieved November 2, 2020.
  9. ^ GA Secretary of State: Official Results - Totals include all Absentee and Provisional Ballots. November 20, 2020, accessed January 5, 2021 .
  10. ↑ a b c Georgia Early Voting Statistics - 2021 Senate Run-Off Election. In: electproject.github.io. Michael McDonald • Professor, University of Florida, accessed January 6, 2021 .
  11. ↑ Georgia Senate Runoff Election Results 2021. In: nbcnews.com. Retrieved January 5, 2020 .
  12. ↑ Georgia Senate runoff election results 2021. In: abcnews.go.com. January 5, 2020, accessed on January 6, 2020 .