Election to the United States Senate 2018

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Distribution of seats
   
A total of 100 seats
  • Dem .: 45
  • Independent (Dem) : 2
  • GOP : 53
Republican Gain Republican Seat Hold Democrat Gain Democratic Seat Hold Independent Mandate Holder Will Not Confirm Senate Election In 2018






The 2018 United States Senate election took place on November 6th. All 33 class one seats were up for grabs, around a third of the Senate . The senators were elected by direct election for a six-year term by the eligible citizens of the state they represent in the Senate. In its new composition , the Senate held its first on January 3, 2019 together .

The Republicans were able to increase their majority (previously: 51 seats) by two seats to 53.

Procedure and candidates

The party's internal primaries to determine the respective candidates for the main election took place between March and September 2018 . The elections are held using different procedures depending on state law.

The current Senate consisted of 51 Republicans and 47 Democrats until the senators who emerged from the 2018 elections took office . Two senators ( Angus King from Maine and Bernie Sanders from Vermont ) were elected independents but belong to the Democratic group in the Senate. Therefore, the Democrats needed at least two newly won Senate seats to win the majority in the 116th United States Congress , which they had lost after the 2014 election and could not regain through the 2016 election . All 23 Democratic senators in this class ran for re-election in 2018. With the Republicans, five out of eight candidates ran for re-election, while Senators from Tennessee , Arizona and Utah - Bob Corker , Jeff Flake and Orrin Hatch - did not run.

In addition, extraordinary by-elections took place on the same day in Minnesota and Mississippi (resignations of the mandate holders Al Franken and Thad Cochran ). In both states, the interim senators appointed by the governors, Tina Smith in Minnesota and Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi, ran for by-elections.

Starting position

Initial situation of the US states: Republican mandate holder Republican mandate holder not running again Democratic mandate holder running Independent mandate holder not running for Senate election in 2018 The extraordinary by-elections are indicated by additional rectangles.






The structural conditions were unfavorable for the Democrats, as they had to defend significantly more seats than the Republicans (23 to 8 and one by-election each). Ten of the Democrats ran in states that ran for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in 2016 , while only one of the Republican senators ( Dean Heller , Nevada ) ran in a state won by Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton . In April 2018, all ten threatened Democrats each had a clear lead over their Republican challengers in terms of campaign donations, while Democratic challengers in four states with previously Republican senators (Nevada, Texas, Arizona, Tennessee) had such good donation income that they could compete there.

In addition, in none of the eleven states identified by the Republicans as targets was there a serious challenge to the respective Democratic favorite by the left wing of the party, which was expected after the split presidential election in 2016 between the establishment candidate Hillary Clinton and the left challenger Bernie Sanders . An analysis by McClatchy DC attributed this to the fact that the Senators of the Democrats had remained closed after the 2016 elections on all key issues, in particular the maintenance of the Obamacare health care reform and the rejection of the Republicans' tax reform.

Senate seats available for election

Country Elected officials Political party 2012 election results
 Candidates (after the primaries) Remarks Election winner Election result
Arizona Jeff Flake (R) R. 49% r Martha McSally (R)

Kyrsten Sinema (D)

Mandate holder does not run again.

Democrats gain

Kyrsten Sinema (D) 50.0%
California Dianne Feinstein (D) D. 63% D. Dianne Feinstein (D)

Kevin de León (D)

Because of the special electoral system (“Jungle Primary”), the two best-placed candidates in the cross-party, general area code , in this case two Democrats, compete against each other in the main election . Dianne Feinstein (D) 54.2%
Connecticut Chris Murphy (D) D. 55% D. Chris Murphy (D)

Matthew Corey (R)

Chris Murphy (D) 58.4%
Delaware Tom Carper (D) D. 66% D. Tom Carper (D)

Robert Arlett (R)

Tom Carper (D) 60%
Florida Bill Nelson (D) D. 55% D. Bill Nelson (D)

Rick scott (r)

Republicans gain Rick scott (r) 50.1%
Hawaii Mazie Hirono (D) D. 63% D. Mazie Hirono (D)

Ron Curtis (R)

Mazie Hirono (D) 72.7%
Indiana Joe Donnelly (D) D. 50% D. Joe Donnelly (D)

Mike Brown (R)

Republicans gain Mike Brown (R) 51.0%
Maine Angus King (I) I. 53% I. Angus King (I)

Eric Brakey (R)

Zak Ringelstein (D)

Angus King (I) 54.2%
Maryland Ben Cardin (D) D. 55% D. Ben Cardin (D)

Tony Campbell (R)

Ben Cardin (D) 64.2%
Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren (D) D. 54% D. Elizabeth Warren (D)

Geoff Diehl (R)

Elizabeth Warren (D) 60.5%
Michigan Debbie Stabenow (D) D. 59% D. Debbie Stabenow (D)

John James (R)

Debbie Stabenow (D) 51.8%
Minnesota Amy Klobuchar (D) D. 65% D. Amy Klobuchar (D)

Jim Newberger (R)

Amy Klobuchar (D) 60.9%
Minnesota
(by-election) 		Tina Smith (D) D. 53% D * Tina Smith (D)

Karin Housley (R)

Tina Smith was appointed to replace the resigned Al Franken . Tina Smith (D) 53.6%
Mississippi Roger Wicker (R) R. 57% r Roger Wicker (R)

David Baria (D)

Roger Wicker (R) 58.9%
Mississippi
(by-election) 		Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) R. 60% R * Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)

Chris McDaniel (R)

Mike Espy (D)

Cindy Hyde-Smith was appointed to replace the resigned Thad Cochran .

On November 6, all candidates will initially compete against each other in the cross-party, general area code ("Jungle Primary"). On November 27th, the run-off vote for the top two will follow (if necessary). Unlike ordinary elections, in Mississippi by-elections, the party membership of the candidate is not indicated on the ballot paper.

Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 53.9%
Missouri Claire McCaskill (D) D. 55% D. Claire McCaskill (D)

Josh Hawley (R)

Republicans gain Josh Hawley (R) 51.9%
Montana Jon Tester (D) D. 49% D. Jon Tester (D)

Matt Rosendale (R)

Jon Tester (D) 49.8%
Nebraska Deb Fischer (R) R. 56% R. Deb Fischer (R)

Jane Raybould (D)

Deb Fischer (R) 58%
Nevada Dean Heller (R) R. 46% r Dean Heller (R)

Jacky Rosen (D)

Democrats gain Jacky Rosen (D) 51.5%
New Jersey Bob Menendez (D) D. 59% D. Bob Menendez (D)

Bob Hugin (R)

Bob Menendez (D) 53.1%
New Mexico Martin Heinrich (D) D. 51% D. Martin Heinrich (D)

Mick rich (r)

Gary Johnson (I)

Martin Heinrich (D) 53.7%
new York Kirsten Gillibrand (D) D. 72% D. Kirsten Gillibrand (D)

Chele Farley (R)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 66.6%
North Dakota Heidi Heitkamp (D) D. 50% D. Heidi Heitkamp (D)

Kevin Cramer (R)

Republicans gain Kevin Cramer (R) 55.4%
Ohio Sherrod Brown (D) D. 51% D. Sherrod Brown (D)

Jim Renacci (R)

Sherrod Brown (D) 53.2%
Pennsylvania Bob Casey Jr. (D) D. 54% D. Bob Casey Jr. (D)

Lou Barletta (R)

Bob Casey Jr. (D) 55.6%
Rhode Island Sheldon Whitehouse (D) D. 64% D. Sheldon Whitehouse (D)

Robert Flanders (R)

Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 61.5%
Tennessee Bob Corker (R) R. 65% R. Marsha Blackburn (R)

Phil Bredesen (D)

Mandate holder does not run again. Marsha Blackburn (R) 54.4%
Texas Ted Cruz (R) R. 57% r Ted Cruz (R)

Beto O'Rourke (D)

Ted Cruz (R) 51.1%
Utah Orrin Hatch (R)
 R. 65% R. Mitt Romney (R)

Jenny Wilson (D)

Mandate holder does not run again. Mitt Romney (R) 62.5%
Vermont Bernie Sanders (I) I. 71% I. Bernie Sanders (I)

Brooke Paige (R)

Bernie Sanders (I) 67.4%
Virginia Tim Kaine (D) D. 53% D. Tim Kaine (D)

Corey Stewart (R)

Tim Kaine (D) 56.9%
Washington Maria Cantwell (D) D. 61% D. Maria Cantwell (D)

Susan Hutchison (R)

Maria Cantwell (D) 58.6%
West Virginia Joe Manchin (D) D. 61% D. Joe Manchin (D)

Patrick Morrisey (R)

Joe Manchin (D) 49.5%
Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin (D) D. 51% D. Tammy Baldwin (D)

Leah Vukmir (R)

Tammy Baldwin (D) 54.9%
Wyoming John Barrasso (R) R. 76% R. John Barrasso (R)

Gary Trauner (D)

John Barrasso (R) 67.1%

* 2012 election results for Al Franken and Thad Cochran.

Result

The Republicans were able to increase their previous majority from 51 seats in the Senate (100 seats in total) to 53 seats. Most of the previous senators were re-elected. The Republicans gained four seats from previous Democratic nominees in Florida , Indiana , Missouri, and North Dakota , while the Democrats gained two seats from previous Republican elected officials in Nevada and Arizona . The Florida census had given Republican Rick Scott such a narrow lead that recounts were ordered by machine and then by hand. Scott finally won by about 10,000 votes out of a total of 8.3 million votes cast, which corresponds to 0.12 percent. On November 27, 2018, Republican mandate holder Cindy Hyde-Smith prevailed against Democratic challenger Mike Espy in Mississippi after neither of them had achieved the required absolute majority in the first ballot.

classification

The election result, which was disappointing for the Democrats, was assessed differently by analysts. Harry Enten pointed out on CNN.com that the Democrats won 69 percent of the 2018 Senate elections, a higher percentage of the victory than in all but 5 of the 27 Senate elections since the 1914 popular election and received a slightly higher percentage than the one in particular successful Senate election in 1974 (68 percent); in the 2010 and 2014 republican wave elections , their candidates won 65 and 67 percent of the Senate seats available for election. If you compare the results of the Senate elections since 1982 with the results to be expected after the presidential election results in the respective states, the Democrats performed 7 percentage points better. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Democrats performed better in all contested Senate election campaigns in 2018 than the previous voting behavior of the respective state would have suggested. On the other hand, Sean Trende pointed out at RealClearPolitics that, for the first time since 1934, the President's party had managed to defeat four opposition party holders in mid-term elections. And although the Democrats in red countries fared better than usual and were able to mobilize their voters as well as they had not in years, they failed in four states to save their mandate holders, which NBC News attributed to the strong polarization of politics under President Trump ; this suggests that the Democrats would have reached their maximum with this result and should not expect better results in structurally republican areas in Donald Trump's presidency .

Web links

supporting documents

  1. ↑ Niko Kommenda, Seán Clarke, Josh Holder, Sam Morris, Antonio Voce, Peter Andringa: Results. The Guardian, November 7, 2018, accessed November 14, 2018.
  2. ↑ Cameron Joseph: Senate Dems Still Crushing Their GOP Rivals In Fundraising. In: Talking Points Memo , April 23, 2018.
  3. ↑ Alex Roarty: Somehow, Senate Dems united as election year begins. In: McClatchy DC , January 2, 2018.
  4. ↑ United States Senate Republican Party primaries, 2018 - Ballotpedia . ( ballotpedia.org [accessed May 10, 2018]). United States Senate Democratic Party primaries, 2018 - Ballotpedia . ( ballotpedia.org [accessed May 10, 2018]).
  5. ↑ Griffin Connolly: It's Thursday - 14 House Races, 3 Senate Races Yet Unresolved. In: Roll Call , November 8, 2018.
  6. Jump up ↑ Gregory Krieg, Ryan Nobles, Ellie Kaufman, Dan Merica: Florida recounts begin as tensions escalate across state. In: CNN.com , November 10, 2018; Dan Merica, Gregory War: Bill Nelson concedes Florida Senate race to Rick Scott. In: CNN.com , November 18, 2018.
  7. ^ Mississippi US Senate Special Election Results. In: The New York Times , November 7, 2018.
  8. ^ Harry Enten: Even in the Senate, 2018 looks like other wave years for Democrats. In: CNN.com , November 13, 2018.
  9. ↑ Geoffrey Skelley, Julia Wolfe: No, Democrats Did not Win The Senate. But They Did Better Than It Seems. In: FiveThirtyEight , November 19, 2018.
  10. ↑ Sean Trende: So, Was It A Wave? In: RealClearPolitics , November 16, 2018.
  11. ↑ Chuck Todd , Mark Murray, Carrie Dann: Midterms 2018: Dem performance in red states might have been their ceiling in the Trump era. In: NBC News , November 19, 2018.