Wave election
Wave election is a now widely used term from US election campaigns that is used to express substantial gains by a party in an election - usually congressional elections . The political science uses the term, which lies next to the United States in India has been established. Wave election would literally be translated as “wave election” or “election wave”; this approach is deliberately chosen because there is a significant increase in mandates in these elections across the region, so “a wave is going through the country”.
Usage in the United States
features
The term wave election comes from the United States , where it is now very well established in political science, the media and the public. The designation is intended to express substantial gains for a party. Usually these are congressional elections , which take place both parallel to the presidential elections and in the middle of a four-year presidential term. A classic feature of a wave election is, in addition to the sheer gain in congress mandates, supra-regionality: the winning party wins an above-average number of constituencies across almost the entire country. So there is practically a “wave through the country” (the literal translation of wave election would be “wave election” or “election wave”). In addition, the losing party either does not succeed at all or only rarely succeeds in gaining a few new mandates. Most of the constituencies in which the national losing party emerges victorious are its classic strongholds. For the Republicans these are traditionally rural regions, for the Democrats they are highly urbanized areas.
Since the entire House of Representatives is filled with 435 new seats in the biennial congressional elections , while only a third of the 100 members are elected in the Senate , there is a significantly larger shift in seats between the party camps in wave elections in the House of Representatives. An almost constant balance of power between the parliamentary groups in the Senate is therefore possible, while there are clear changes in the House of Representatives. An example of this are the 1966 congressional elections, when the opposition Republicans were only able to win two Senate seats. Even after the polls, the Democrats were still able to nominate 64 of the 100 senators. In the House, however, Republicans won 47 new seats; Nevertheless, the majority remained unchanged (248 versus 187 MPs in favor of the Democrats). A wave election does not automatically result in a change in the overall majority. Strong gains for the minority party are just as possible, as is a significant increase in the majority party, which can thus expand its lead. For example, in 1974, during the aftermath of the Watergate affair , the Democrats won 49 new seats, increasing their majority from 242 to 291 seats. In 1938, the Republicans had 81 more MPs after the elections, although they were still clearly in the minority with 169 seats.
An exact definition based on a certain percentage of votes or a minimum number of congress mandates won is not clearly defined. As a benchmark, roughly 20 new seats in the House of Representatives are mentioned.
classification
If a presidential election takes place at the same time, the party with gains in Congress usually has an advantage. But this does not necessarily have to be the case, as the elections of 1956 showed: The Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower was confirmed by a large majority in the White House , while his party could not benefit from the re-election of the popular president. In the House of Representatives, the Democrats even won two new seats after the 1954 election , known as the Wave election , again won the Congress majority.
What can be observed, however, is that the president's party usually loses seats during the mid-term elections , i.e. in the middle of the term of office, when a wave election is mentioned. The reverse case has not occurred since the 19th century. In any case, gains in Congress for the president's party are very rare in mid-term elections, and when they do occur (such as in 1962 during John F. Kennedy's term in office) they are usually small. On the other hand, there is not talk of a wave election in all mid-term elections. An example of a recent wave election are the 2010 elections , when the Republicans won 63 seats in the House during Barack Obama's first term in office, gaining a majority, while the Democrats narrowly maintained their majority in the Senate. In 2014 , during President Obama's second term in office, the term wave election was only used sporadically, given the moderate Republican gains from 13 seats in the House (but eight new seats in the Senate). Wave elections in Congress often occur in parallel with presidential elections; for example, when a new president is elected by a large majority, as was the case in Obama's first election in 2008 , or an incumbent is confirmed with a clear result. Examples are the re-elections of Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 or Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 . Political science has the following explanation: While the voters in the course of a presidential election sympathize with the popular candidate with a clear result and thus often give his party the vote in congressional elections, the mid-term elections are often disappointed by political opponents of the president or earlier, meanwhile, Voters used to express their disapproval with the policies of the White House. In addition, in the course of mid-term elections, the opponents of the US president are usually better able to mobilize their supporters to “punish” the government, while the supporters of the president usually do not vote in so many. Elections like the one in 1956 are considered exceptional as President Eisenhower's confirmation in office had more to do with his personal popularity than his party affiliation. In addition, Eisenhower also pursued democratic goals and knew how to work with democratic politicians, which made him eligible for many supporters of the Democrats.
Examples
Democratic wave elections were for example: 1932 , 1936 , 1948 , 1954 , 1958 , 1964 , 1974 , 1982 , 2006 and 2008 .
For example, Republican wave elections were: 1938 , 1942 , 1946 , 1950 , 1952 , 1966 , 1980 , 1994 and 2010 .
Use in India
In India, too, the partly landslide victories of the Bharatiya Janata Party with its top candidate Narendra Modi in the parliamentary elections in 2014 and partly in the subsequent elections in individual Indian states have been referred to as Modi wave .
Web links
- Wave election: Definition , About-News (English)
- A history of wave elections since 1894 , DailyCaller (English)
Individual evidence
- ↑ a b c Wave election: Definition ( Memento from July 13, 2014 in the Internet Archive ), About-News (English)
- ↑ a b A history of wave elections since 1894 ( Memento from January 10, 2015 in the Internet Archive ), DailyCaller (English)
- ↑ Wave Elections Might Be Washed Up for Now ( Memento from January 10, 2015 in the Internet Archive ), National Journal (English)
- ^ Modi wave humiliates Cong, govt formation to have his stamp. Hindustan Times, May 17, 2014, accessed January 20, 2015 .
- ↑ Nikhil Wagle: No clear majority for BJP in Maharashtra: Has the Narendra Modi wave lost steam? dnaindia.com, October 19, 2014, accessed January 20, 2015 .
- ↑ Aamir Salati: Jammu and Kashmir State Assembly Election Results 2014: Modi wave nil in Valley. india.com, December 24, 2014, accessed January 20, 2015 .
- ↑ Sandeep Shrivastwa: BJP rides high on Modi wave in Jharkhand, but faces tough time in tribal areas. IBNLive, November 13, 2014, accessed on January 20, 2015 .