Bad beat

Example of a bad beat: Player 1 loses despite a flopped ace four of a kind against player 2, who completes his hand to a royal flush with the river card

In the Hold'em variant of the card game poker, a bad beat describes a hand that loses despite its apparent strength at the beginning.

Types of bad beats

Most hands that seem excellent after the flop can still be beaten later in the hand. In general, a distinction is made between two possible forms.

Draw bad beat

In a draw bad beat, a player with an obviously strong hand after the flop loses against a player whose hand only becomes stronger than his opponent's hand during the course of the round. It is characteristic here that the player with the initially inferior hand often, contrary to the mathematical probabilities of improving his hand with the turn and river cards , actually has the stronger hand by paying the stakes ( calling ) that his opponent pretends ( bet ) receives.

The following example shows the course of a game round that ultimately leads to a bad beat due to the behavior of two players:

Hole Cards Player 1	J ♠ 9 ♥
Hole Cards Player 2	7 ♣ 8 ♣
Flop	J ♣ 9 ♠ 3 ♠

Player 1 holds a top two pair , the currently best possible two pair combination, here jacks and nines. With the two spades (♠) a flush and with J 9 there is still a low risk of a straight.

There are 10 chips in the pot . Player 1 bets 20 to get player 2 to abandon his hand and thus eliminate the risk of flushes and straights.

Player 2 misses the 10 on the street ( Gutshot ). Since there are four cards with the value “10” in the deck in a normal 52-card game, the profitability for paying the minimum bet can be calculated using the formula below.

The following applies:

{\ displaystyle P = 100 \ cdot {\ frac {O \ cdot G} {45 + G}}}

with - number of outs, - outstanding community cards. ${\ displaystyle O}$ ${\ displaystyle G}$

{\ displaystyle {\ begin {aligned} O & = 4 \\ G & = 2 \\ P & = 100 \ cdot {\ frac {4 \ cdot 2} {45 + 2}} \\ P & \ approx 17 \, \% \ end {aligned}}}

So the player has a 17 percent chance of getting a street. It follows:

{\ displaystyle S = C \ cdot (P + E)}

with - the maximum amount to be paid, - probability of improving the hand, in percent, - pot size, - the stake to be made. ${\ displaystyle S}$ ${\ displaystyle C}$ ${\ displaystyle P}$ ${\ displaystyle E}$

{\ displaystyle {\ begin {aligned} C & = 17 \, \% \\ P & = 20 + 10 \\ & = 30 \\ E & = 20 \\ S & = 0 {,} 17 \ cdot (30 + 20) & = 8 {,} 5 \ end {aligned}}}

Player 2 should bet a maximum of 8.5 so that the bet is profitable.

If this player pays anyway, completes his hand to a straight and player 1 stays with his two pairs, player 2 wins with a straight, even though the bet was mathematically unjustified. One speaks of a bad beat .

Unpredictable bad beat

In the event of an unpredictable bad beat , a strong hand loses to an even stronger one. In the film James Bond: Casino Royale , for example, the protagonist wins with a straight flush against a full house .

Reactions to a bad beat

A bad beat often leads to emotional reactions and a lack of concentration. In poker jargon that player is called ge tilted or "on tilt".