Unconditional move
An unconditional move is a term from game theory and is one of the strategic moves ( strategic move ). A player who chooses an unconditional move acts in front of his opponents and thus determines his own action. The decision a player makes is called a move in this context. Unconditional in this context means unrestricted and independent of the actions of others.
Creation of an unconditional move
The unconditional move is an answer rule in which you make the first move and thus determine your own action. So it has to be a game in which the moves consciously take place one after the other for strategic reasons. If this is the case, it is called a game with sequential moves . For a better illustration, the reasons for choosing an unconditional move are presented below.
Simultaneous play
Explanation
A starting point for the creation of an unconditional move is a game with simultaneous moves. In such a game, players have to make a decision or choose a move without knowing how the other will decide. A simultaneous game therefore takes place under imperfect information. However, a player can have a dominant strategy in a game . This is the case when there is a move where your own results, regardless of how the opposing party decides, are always better than when choosing the other possible move. If the opponent recognizes this dominant strategy , he can adjust his response to the strategy of his opponent. This in turn can lead to a disadvantage on the other side despite the dominant strategy.
It is particularly advantageous for one party to take the initiative if its behavior is predictable and this can be exploited by the other parties. If the party takes the initiative in such a situation, it can possibly change the course of the conflict in its favor.
Your own situation can be improved with the help of a strategic move in the form of an unconditional move. The effect occurs here that a simultaneous game becomes a sequential game , since the player consciously announces his decision in advance. The moves are no longer carried out simultaneously, but one after the other.
example
In 2006, the sporting goods manufacturer adidas took over the US competitor Reebok. Adidas wants to strengthen its market share in which Nike is the leader. The previous “main markets” of the two competitors, the USA and Europe, are stagnating. Both opponents are increasingly trying to enter the markets of developing countries such as India or China and to strengthen their own position.
Let's imagine the following scenario as an example: Both manufacturers are trying to score points on the markets with high advertising expenditure. It has to be decided whether the two sporting goods manufacturers will enter the markets with a large or a small advertising budget. The outcome of what both can achieve depends on how much the other invests in advertising. Since both share a market, shifts in market share can be influenced by advertising. Let us further assume that lower ad spend would benefit adidas. Nike, on the other hand, can handle a large advertising budget.
The table on the right shows that the results (4 → best result to 1 → worst result) for adidas (results shown in a square at the bottom left) are always better when choosing a small advertising budget than when choosing a large advertising budget . A small budget is the dominant strategy for adidas (results marked in red). If Nike recognizes adidas' dominant strategy (results in the top right corner), Nike will choose a large advertising budget. For adidas this means a result of only 2, which is a worse result despite the dominant strategy.
How adidas can improve its result is described in the following section.
Sequential game
Explanation
The unconditional move can "convert" a simultaneous game into a sequential game. This is done by a player making a unilateral unconditional announcement. In other words, a player takes action and anticipates their decision. So he has a direct influence on the course of the game, because he influences the decision of the opponent.
The decision as to which unconditional move should be chosen is made by looking ahead and drawing conclusions based on the possible results as to which behavior is most favorable.
The advantage that can arise from an unconditional move is also referred to as the first mover's advantage . In other words, the player who can make the first move has the advantage.
example
If you look at the above example again, adidas can improve its situation with one unconditional move. Adidas should therefore play the first move and announce a large advertising budget. This makes it cheaper for Nike to set up a small advertising budget and adidas achieves a result that is one point better. The results can be seen in the adjacent graphic.
Success factors
The success of an unconditional move depends on several factors, which are briefly explained below. These factors determine whether the opponent's decision can be influenced with an unconditional move.
Commitment
The player who chooses an unconditional move must commit himself not to choose his dominant strategy decision. He has to commit himself to his decision.
credibility
Furthermore, the credibility of the unconditional move plays an important role. The opponent must not play with the idea that you will make a different decision. So you have to convincingly convey to the opponent that you stick to his unconditional announcement. Otherwise, the opponent has no reason to react as expected.
Self-commitment
The unconditional move should be reinforced by making your decision irreversible. Thus, another decision is no longer possible and the self-commitment makes it clear to the opponent that no other alternative course of action is possible.
First move
The opponent's decision must not take place before the decision is made. A subsequent unconditional move no longer has any effect.
Notoriety
The opponent must know the decision. If he does not know it, it cannot influence his actions either.
Result
The decisions in a simultaneous game and a sequential game do not have to be the same. An unconditional move does not necessarily have to lead to success or influence the decisions in a game. The effect depends on a number of factors. Furthermore, game combinations are conceivable in which an unconditional move has no influence on the course of the game. In such situations, the strategic move can be positively influenced by promises , assurances , warnings or threats . Furthermore, the strategy can consist of letting the opponent make an unconditional move and reacting to it.
supporting documents
- ↑ Avinash K. Dixit, Barry J. Nalebuff (eds.): Game theory for beginners. 1997, p. 122.
- ^ Peter-Jürgen Jost: Strategic conflict management in organizations. 1999, p. 223.
- ↑ Avinash K. Dixit, Barry J. Nalebuff (eds.): Game theory for beginners. 1997, p. 120.
literature
- Avinash K. Dixit, Barry J. Nalebuff (Eds.): Game Theory for Beginners - Strategic Know-How for Winners. Schäffer-Poeschel Verlag, Stuttgart 1997, ISBN 3-7910-1239-8 (basic literature on this article)
- Avinash K. Dixit, Susan Skeath (Eds.): Games of Strategy. 2nd Edition. WW Norton & Company, 2004, ISBN 0-393-92499-8 .
- Peter-Jürgen Jost: Strategic Conflict Management in Organizations: An Introduction to Game Theory. Gabler Verlag, 1999, ISBN 3-409-22256-1 .
- Eric Rasmusen: Games and information: an introduction to game theory. Blackwell Publishing, Oxford 2007, ISBN 978-1-4051-3666-2 .
- Thomas Riechmann: Game Theory. 2nd Edition. Verlag Vahlen, Munich 2008, ISBN 978-3-8006-3505-4 .