Warning (game theory)

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With the help of a warning , someone should be made aware of a possible risk. To do this, the warning must be presented in a credible manner. In game theory , the warning is used to show the opponent the consequences of his actions.

Definition of warning in game theory

An important keyword in game theory is the strategic move . This means that the actor determines an action with which he anticipates his opponent. He has to estimate the response reaction of his opponent. In a game, each participant has to think about the behavior of the other, as his optimal decision depends on it. Furthermore, every player has to take into account that the others have certain expectations about his behavior. The actor can send out information for his action. In game theory, this is called a warning or affirmation . In this article, however, only the term warning should be considered. The warning indicates a possible danger that - under certain circumstances - can still be prevented. The actor merely communicates his reaction to the actions of the other party.

Differentiation from the threat

The warning must not be confused with the threat . The threat is an answer rule according to which an actor undertakes to punish others who do not cooperate with him. A warning, on the other hand, is used to inform others of the consequences of their actions. The warning has a rather subordinate role in game theory. The warning person wants to bring about a change in behavior, but he can only influence this to a limited extent. For this purpose, a warning must be clearly recognizable and indicate an impending danger. With the warning, an actor cannot force his opponent to act, but only informs about the consequences of his action or inaction. It therefore only has an information function.

Types of warning

Audible warning

In a game the opponent can e.g. B. be warned with the following formulations: "Be careful!"; "Be careful!"; "Watch out!"; “Look closely!”; “Be careful!”; “Be on your guard!”; "Stop!"; "Stop!". Often, however, mere tones, such as a horn or whistle, are enough to alert the opponent to possible consequences.

Optical warning

For example, warning colors or lights can be used here. But also characters such as B. the skull or the exclamation mark give a certain signal effect to the player or players.

Examples

Warning of swap transactions

Since July 2008, the Franconian family company Schaeffler KG has been making a name for itself with a planned takeover of the three times larger DAX company Continental . First, Schaeffler bought 2.97 percent of Conti (from 3 percent this would have to be publicly reported). The Schaeffler Group was guaranteed a further 5 percent by a bank . In order to acquire more shares unnoticed, Schaeffler secured a further 28 percent in Conti via so-called swap deals under the direction of the investment bank Merrill Lynch. The later delivery of shares was not agreed, but a cash settlement. Schaeffler should be given the following warning at this point: The banks are not taking any risk. Schaeffler provides you with the swap premium and the interest over the term of the transaction. The banks buy or secure Conti shares through purchase agreements with third parties. If the price of Conti shares rises, the banks can have Schaeffler compensate for the higher cash entitlement. If the rate falls, Schaeffler bears the risk and must compensate for the difference between the previously set price and the lower Conti rate.

Warning when playing chess

In the board game chess , the aim of every player is to beat the opposing king with the help of his own chess piece. This is also known as "Checkmating the King". This means that the opposing king is in danger if he were captured on the next move. It is a sequential game in which the players make decisions or choose strategies in order to foresee the opponent's future moves and to derive the optimal reaction to their own action. Just the exclamation of “chess” is a warning to the opposing player that his king is in danger. The opposing player must react to this chess bid with defense, otherwise he would lose the game on the next move. The player can use the following three options:

  1. The king leaves the threatened playing field,
  2. the player captures the threatening chess piece or
  3. the player places one of his chess pieces between the king and the threatening piece.

If none of the three options can be used to respond to the warning, the player has lost.

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ A. Dixit, B. Nalebuff: Game theory for beginners. 1997, p. 123f.
  2. ↑ A. Dixit, B. Nalebuff: Game theory for beginners. 1997, p. 124.
  3. ↑ A. Dixit, B. Nalebuff: Game theory for beginners. 1997, p. 122.
  4. ↑ A. Dixit, B. Nalebuff: Game theory for beginners. 1997, p. 124.
  5. ↑ A. Dixit, B. Nalebuff: Game theory for beginners. 1997, p. 124.
  6. ↑ Example taken from Wirtschaftswoche . No. 32, August 4, 2008, pp. 91f.

Web links

Wiktionary: warn  - explanations of meanings, word origins, synonyms, translations

literature

  • Avinash K. Dixit, Barry J. Nalebuff (Eds.): Game Theory for Beginners – Strategic Know-How for Winners. Schäffer-Poeschel Verlag, Stuttgart 1997, ISBN 3-7910-1239-8 ( basic literature on this article )
  • Avinash K. Dixit, Susan Skeath (Eds.): Games of Strategy. 2nd Edition. WW Norton & Company, 2004, ISBN 0-393-92499-8 .
  • Harald Hungenberg: Strategic Management in Companies. Gabler Verlag, Wiesbaden 2006, ISBN 3-8349-0288-8 .
  • Eric Rasmusen: Games and information: an introduction to game theory. Blackwell Publishing, Oxford 2007, ISBN 978-1-4051-3666-2 .