Chamber election in Luxembourg 2018 / polls and forecasts

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This article presents surveys and forecasts for the 2018 chamber election .

Sunday question

Ifop survey from November 2017
Compared to the 2013 election (rounded to half percentage points)
 %
40
30th
20th
10
0
39
15th
13
13
8th
6th
3
1
1
1
Gains and losses
compared to
 % p
   6th
   4th
   2
   0
  -2
  -4
  -6
+5.5
-5.5
-5.5
+3
+1.5
+1
± 0
-0.5
-0.5
+1
Share of votes according to survey
date source CSV LSAP DP Greng ADR Lenk PPLU PID KPL Otherwise.
November 2017 Ifop 39 15th 13 13 8th 6th 3 1 1 1
Chamber election 2013 33.7 20.3 18.3 10.1 6.6 4.9 2.9 1.7 1.4 -

Seat forecasts

Distribution of seats according to TNS survey v. June 2018
3
9
7th
10
26th
5
3 9 7th 10 26th 5 
A total of 60 seats
Projection of the distribution of seats
date source CSV LSAP DP Greng ADR Lenk KPL
June 2018 TNS 26th 9 10 7th 5 3 -
December 2017 TNS 27 10 010 6th 4th 3 -
May 2017 TNS 29 10 09 6th 3 3 -
December 2016 TNS 28 10 10 6th 3 3 -
June 2016 TNS 27 10 07th 7th 6th 3 -
January 2016 Day sheet 27 10 08th 6th 5 3 1
January 2015 TNS 27 11 010 6th 3 3 -
Chamber election 2013 23 13 13 6th 3 2 -

Sunday question about constituency

Indication in percent, in brackets forecast number of seats.

center

date source CSV DP LSAP Greng ADR Lenk PPLU PID KPL
June 2018 TNS 36.1 (9) 20.6 (5) 11.8 (2) 11.2 (2) 8.6 (2) 5.4 (1)
December 2017 TNS 39.7 (9) 20.5 (5) 12.5 (3) 11.4 (2) 5.3 (1) 6.2 (1) 3.2 1.0 0.2
May 2017 TNS 41.8 (10) 17.9 (3) 12.1 (3) 10.7 (2) 6.9 (1) 6.5 (1) 3.1 0.9 0.0
December 2016 TNS 39.4 (9) 19.8 (5) 13.5 (3) 10.6 (2) 6.2 (1) 6.3 (1) 2.8 0.9 0.5
July 2015 Day sheet 42.1 (10) 19.4 (4) 13.7 (3) 9.6 (2) 14.2 (ADR 1; Lenk 1)
January 2015 TNS 40.2 (9) 20.9 (5) 14.7 (3) 10.3 (2) 13.9 (2)
Chamber election 2013 35.3 (8) 25.0 (6) 14.7 (3) 10.5 (2) 5.0 (1) 4.8 (1) 2.7 1.2 0.9

east

date source CSV DP LSAP Greng ADR Lenk PPLU PID KPL
June 2018 TNS 36.1 17.7 11.6 14.6 9.7 6.3
December 2017 TNS 40.1 (3) 16.9 (1) 11.1 (1) 13.0 (1) 12.2 (1) 2.8 2.2 1.5 0.2
May 2017 TNS 44.8 (4) 14.2 (1) 12.9 (1) 12.8 (1) 8.4 3.3 2.1 1.4 0.0
January 2016 Day sheet 42.5 (3) 11.5 (1) 11.7 (1) 11.7 (1) 12.7 (1) 3.9 6.0
July 2015 Day sheet 41.0 (4) 14.5 (1) 12.1 (3) 12.2 (2) 10.3 (1) 4.2 3.2 2.5
January 2015 TNS 40.9 (4) 15.8 (1) 13.2 (1) 11.1 (1) 9.2 9.8
Chamber election 2013 36.9 (3) 18.6 (2) 14.6 (1) 13.1 (1) 8.7 3.1 2.7 1.6 0.8

north

date source CSV DP LSAP Greng ADR PPLU PID Lenk KPL
June 2018 TNS 37.1 20.3 14.3 10.0 7.0 4.4
December 2017 TNS 41.8 (5) 17.7 (2) 14.8 (1) 10.1 (1) 5.5 3.2 2.3 4.4 0.2
May 2017 TNS 41.1 (5) 15.1 (2) 14.3 (1) 9.9 (1) 7.4 3.1 2.4 6.0 0.6
June 2016 TNS 33.69 (4) (1) 18.2 (2) (1) 9.2
January 2015 TNS 40.2 (5) 18.5 (2) 11.8 (1) 10.3 (1) 19.2
Chamber election 2013 33.7 (4) 23.7 (2) 17.2 (2) 9.0 (1) 6.4 3.4 3.3 2.6 0.9

south

date source CSV LSAP DP Greng ADR Lenk PPLU KPL PID
June 2018 TNS 34.0 (9) 19.9 (5) 10.5 (2) 12.0 (3) 9.3 (2) 7.3 (2) 3.1 3.0 0.9
December 2017 TNS 36.7 (10) 20.6 (5) 10.0 (2) 10.7 (2) 7.9 (2) 7.7 (2) 3.0 2.2 1.1
May 2017 TNS 35.9 (10) 20.4 (5) 9.5 (2) 10.2 (2) 10 (2) 7.3 (2) 2.9 2.8 1.1
December 2016 TNS 35.8 (10) 20.1 (5) 9 (2) 10.5 (2) 10.4 (2) 8 (2) 2.8 2.1 1.3
January 2015 TNS (9) (6) (2) (2) (2) (2)
Chamber election 2013 32.2 (8) 25.2 (7) 12.7 (3) 9.8 (2) 7.5 (2) 5.7 (1) 3.0 2.5 1.4

More surveys

Preferred coalition polls

The percentages indicate which proportion of respondents thinks the potential coalition is good, or most prefer it.

Institute date CSV
LSAP 		LSAP
DP
Greng
Lenk 		CSV
DP 		LSAP
DP
Greng 		CSV
Greng 		CSV
ADR 		CSV (alone) LSAP
DP 		LSAP
Greng 		DP
Greng 		Other No information
June 2018 TNS 9 11 13 18th 3 3 3 4th 4th 12 19th
December 2017 TNS 11 12 12 16 3 5 3 5 3 8th 19th
November 2017 Ifop 39 3 34 35 37 19th
December 2016 TNS 13 9 11 17th 5 4th 3 5 3 12 18th