Load forecast
In the energy industry, load forecasting refers to the forecast of electrical energy consumption (load) or gas consumption in a certain geographical area, a supply network or a balancing group . A distinction is made between short-term and long-term forecasts .
The short-term load forecast - a time horizon of a quarter of an hour to several days - is required for balancing group management . According to the forecast, electricity or gas is bought in or sold by the energy supply company (EVU) on energy exchanges. A large number of different data, including historical load curves and weather data on temperature, wind and global radiation, serve as the basis for the short-term load forecast. Furthermore, calendar dates such as the day of the week, public holidays and vacation times, as well as possibly special events (such as the soccer World Cup) have an impact on the short-term and long-term expected load. Specialized systems and various mathematical methods are used for the operational creation of load forecasts, the most common of which are:
- Type day procedure
- Regression analysis
- Smoothing method / ARIMA
- Trend season models
- Neural Networks
In bulk business, the forecast is based on standard load profiles . Here only the aggregated quantity is forecast, while the structure of the acceptance is given by the standard profile.
Longer-term load forecasts - typically for a coming delivery year - are created as part of the preparation of the offer for the purchase behavior of potential sales customers and are the basis for the price calculation. The energy costs of a delivery result from the evaluation of a load forecast with an HPFC or a DFC (gas). In addition, there are risk surcharges for the uncertainties associated with the delivery (quantity risk, credit risk ...) and other cost components of the delivery (network, EEG surcharge, taxes ...).
Long-term load forecasts - a time horizon of one to twenty years - are decisive for the long-term price level on the energy markets and the utilization of the networks. This is for the energy industry u. a. for the decision to build new power plants and networks. Macroeconomic factors in particular serve as the basis for long-term load forecasts . They play a major role in energy policy and in shaping the political framework.
Application examples :
Load forecasts are used by network operators and electricity traders from the energy industry to predict the electrical energy consumption (load) of a specific geographic area, a supply network or a balancing group.
Individual evidence
- ^ Marianne Diem: Load forecasting and forecasting procedures. Retrieved June 9, 2017 .
- ↑ Load forecast. Retrieved on November 19, 2019 (German).