Philip Tetlock

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Philip E. Tetlock

Philip E. Tetlock (born March 2, 1954 ) is an American psychologist . He is a professor at the University of Pennsylvania .

Life

Tetlock graduated from the University of British Columbia and received a Ph.D. in Psychology from Yale University . From 1979 to 1996 he was a professor at the University of California, Berkeley. From 1996 to 2001 he was a professor at Ohio State University , from 2002 back to Berkeley.

job

Among other things, Tetlock deals with how experts deal with forecasts . Second, he is interested in how people deal with accountability and taking responsibility. He also researched distortions in assessments and decisions .

He has been a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences since 2009 and of the American Philosophical Society since 2019 .

Expert Political Judgment

In his book Expert Political Judgment , published in 2005, Tetlock reports on the results of a two-decade research project in which he examines the predictions of 284 commentators on political issues. The experts should predict the likelihood of occurrence and non-occurrence of various scenarios. By 2003 he had collected 82,361 predictions. These predictions have been compared to reality as well as several other predictions from simple statistical models, uninformed and informed laypeople. The experts hardly did better than informed laypeople and each group did worse than simple rules and models. Within the experts, Tetlock was at least able to identify a group of experts that did better than a second group of experts: Based on Isaiah Berlin , the foxes with their agile, broad knowledge were superior to the monothematic hedgehogs , although both groups were subject to simple statistical models. According to Tetlock, hedgehogs are more in demand in the media than foxes .

Books

  • Psychology And Social Policy (ed., With Peter Suedfeld). Taylor & Francis, 1991. ISBN 156032063X .
  • Prejudice, Politics, and the American Dilemma (Eds., With Paul Sniderman, Edward Carmines). Stanford University Press, 1993. ISBN 9780804721325 .
  • Reasoning and Choice: Explorations in Political Psychology (Eds., With Paul M. Sniderman, Richard A. Brody). Cambridge University Press, 1991. ISBN 9780521402552 .
  • Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics (ed., With Aaron Belkin). Princeton University Press, 1996. ISBN 0691027927 .
  • Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? . Princeton University Press, 2005. ISBN 0691123020 .
  • Superforecasting - the art of correct forecasting. S. Fischer, Frankfurt a. M. 2016. ISBN 978-3-10-080024-4 .
  • Unmaking the West: "What-If?" Scenarios That Rewrite World History (eds., With Richard Ned Lebow, Noel Geoffrey Parker). University of Michigan Press, 2006. ISBN 047211543X .

Web links

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ Adrian E. Tschögl, J. Scott Armstrong: "political judgment Expert?: How good is it how can we know?" Review of Philip E. Tetlock, International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 23, No. 2, 2007, pp. 339-342. In: University of Pennsylvania, Marketing Papers (PDF; 181 kB, 6 pages).
personal data
SURNAME Tetlock, Philip
ALTERNATIVE NAMES Tetlock, Philip E.
BRIEF DESCRIPTION American psychologist and university professor
DATE OF BIRTH March 2, 1954