Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems
Prospective Outlook on Long-Term Energy Systems (POLES) is a model for simulating the global energy industry that runs under the "Vensim" software. It is a technical-economic model with an endogenous energy price formation, a complete calculation of energy demand and supply of various energy sectors and associated technologies and an exhaust module for carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases .
development
POLES was originally developed in the early 1990s at the Institute of Energy Policy and Economics IEPE (now LEPII) in Grenoble , France. It was intended for research purposes in connection with global energy supply, climate change and the long-term effects of energy policy . The development of POLES was initially driven by a detailed description of the energy demand by sector, electrical capacity planning and the research and production of fossil fuels in the different regions of the world. During its development, theoretical and practical expertise in the fields of mathematics , economics , engineering , energy research , analysis of world trade and technical change were incorporated.
The initial developments of POLES were supported by the JOULE II and III programs of the third and fourth framework programs (FP3, FP4) for research and technological development (1990–1994 and 1994–1998) of the European Commission and the French CNRS (Center national de la recherche scientifique). Since then, the model has been financed by other projects, including through FP5 and FP6, and in cooperation with the LEPII, the consulting firm Enerdata and the European Joint Research Center (Joint Research Center) IPTS, developed extensive.
With a development over twenty years, POLES is one of the few energy models that benefits from a continuous development process and expertise over such an extended period of time.
structure
The model offers a complete system for the simulation and economic analysis of the global energy sector up to the year 2050. POLES is a model with partial equilibrium, an annual recursive simulation process and a mixture of price-related behavioral equations and a system based on cost and performance for all technologies in the energy sector . In contrast to many other energy models, international energy prices are endogenous. The main exogenous variables are the gross domestic product and the population of the respective countries and regions.
The structure of the model is based on interconnected modules and is divided into three levels of analysis: the international energy market, the regional energy balance and the national energy demand (which includes new technologies, electricity production, system of primary energy production and greenhouse gas emissions by sector).
POLES divides the world into 57 regions (45 countries including the 27 countries of the European Union and 12 country aggregates) with 13 different sectors for energy demand in each region.
Demand of the different sectors
The description of the demand sectors is very detailed and includes indicators for activity, short- and long-term energy prices and the associated elasticity and technological development trends (i.e. taking into account technological learning processes). This allows a solid economic consistency in the adjustment of supply and demand per region, since relative price fluctuations in a sector can influence all of the main variables of the regional sectors. The calculation of the added value of all sectors is endogenous.
The demand for the various fuels in a sector follows the competition for market shares, driven by energy prices and factors related to policy and hypotheses of technological development. The model includes the following demand sectors:
- Residential and service sectors: two sectors
- Industry:
- Energy application: four sectors, detailed simulation of energy-intensive industries such as the steel industry, chemical industry, cement or glass industry.
- Non-energetic application: two sectors, transformation sectors such as plastic production and production of chemical raw materials.
- Transport: four sectors (air transport, train transport, road transport and others). Road transport includes various types of vehicles (cars, trucks, etc.) and allows technical competition with alternative vehicle types such as hybrid vehicles or electric and fuel cell vehicles, among others.
- Agribusiness: a sector.
Oil and gas supply
There are 71 regions with (inter) regional trade for oil and gas production. The modeling of the fossil fuel supply takes into account technical improvements in the rate of oil extraction, a link between new discoveries and cumulative drilling, and feedback on the reserve production rate of the oil price. The model also differentiates between OPEC and non-OPEC production and also takes into account unconventional oil sources such as oil shale and oil sands .
Power generation
There are 26 methods of electricity generation, some of which are still secondary or in the planning stage, such as thermal production with CO 2 capture and storage or new nuclear designs . Price-related means of dissemination such as the Renewable Energy Sources Act can be integrated as an influencing factor for advance planning for the future development of new energy generation processes.
The model differentiates between four typical daily load curves within a year in two-hour steps. The load curves are created using a ranking based on operating and maintenance marginal costs and annualized capital costs. The estimated electricity demand of one year influences investment decisions for new capacity planning for the following year.
Emissions and Carbon Price
POLES includes a balance sheet for greenhouse gas emissions and allows the greenhouse gas flows to be visualized on a sectoral, regional and global level. The model covers emissions from fuels in all sectors and thus over half of global greenhouse gas emissions, including the six greenhouse gases of the Kyoto Protocol (carbon dioxide, methane gas, nitrogen oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, hydrofluorocarbonate and perfluorocarbon). The model makes it possible to test the sensitivity of the energy sector to the carbon price for fossil fuels at the regional level, envisaged and experimented by systems of emissions trading such as the EU emissions trading for carbon dioxide emissions.
Database
The model database was developed by IPTS, LEPII and Enerdata. The data on technical costs and services was provided by the TECHPOL database. The data of historical energy demand and historical energy consumption and energy price are generated and made available by Enerdata.
use
The POLES model is used today to carry out future-oriented studies and tests that are intended to show the influence of different energy sources or energy policy and different driving variables of energy demand. Furthermore, one can calculate the penetration rate of different technologies for electricity generation and end use. POLES does not provide the direct macro-economic effects of the mitigation measures as envisaged in the Stern Report , but allows a detailed estimate of the costs in connection with technologies with low energy consumption or zero energy technologies.
In connection with profiles of greenhouse gas emissions, POLES can calculate so-called "marginal abatement cost curves" ( MACC ) ( marginal avoidance cost curves ) for each region and each point in time. These serve to measure the reduction costs of greenhouse gas emissions or to analyze strategically important zones for emission measurement procedures and systems for emission rights trading under different market configurations and trading rules.
Studies that include POLES simulations have been commissioned by international bodies such as the General Directorates of the European Commission, the national energy, environmental, industrial and transport authorities or private actors in the energy sector.
criticism
POLES is able to model changes in sectoral added value and shifts in activity between sectors. Nevertheless, POLES is not a macroeconomic model, as it uses gross domestic product (GDP) as input data, but does not integrate any impact of gross domestic product that could result from the development of the energy system, such as carbon prices, falling oil production and their impact on transport and mobility or growth due to technical improvements (such as the IT boom in the 1990s). POLES therefore does not provide the entire impact on society, for example of adaptation to the climate or the resulting reductions (it does, however, allow an assessment of the total costs of the energy sectors, including investments in the development of production processes with low energy consumption).
The model does not integrate all greenhouse gas emissions, such as those affecting agribusiness, land use , land use change and forestry. In this respect, the climate component of the model cannot extrapolate the total greenhouse gas stocks and concentrations as well as the associated temperature increases of anthropogenic climate change .
See also
Web links
Individual evidence
- ↑ Energy Scenarios, Technology Development and Climate Policy Analysis with the POLES Modeling System ( Memento of the original dated August 19, 2011 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. (PDF; 949 kB)
- ↑ Emissions Constraints and Induced Technical Change in the Energy Sector: simulations with the POLES model (PDF; 517 kB)
- ↑ Techpol, un observatoire des nouvelles technologies de l'énergie , Menanteau, P., in Lettre Techniques de l'Ingénieur - Energies, 2 (2006) 5-6
- ↑ POLES description
- ↑ Use on IPTS
- ↑ Coupling with the GEM-E3 model ( Memento of the original from October 1, 2006 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice.
- ↑ Greenhouse gas reduction pathways in the UNFCCC process up to 2025 - study for DG ENV
- ↑ World Energy Technology Outlook 2050 (PDF; 1.9 MB) - Study for DG RTD
- ^ Facteur 4 - Study for the French Ministry of Finance and Industry
- ↑ Sharing developed countries' post-2012 greenhouse gas emission reductions based on comparable efforts ( Memento of the original of July 10, 2011 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was automatically inserted and not yet checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice.
- ↑ Economic Assessment of Post-2012 Global Climate Policy with Poland and GEM-E3 (PDF; 787 kB)
