Warning system
A warning system is a - usually a publicly organized - service to warn of dangers and prevention against damage . Warning systems are often used to provide better help after the harmful event has occurred.
As a rule, the basis of a warning system is a network of reporting points , data lines, experts and locally distributed measuring devices or sensors . There must be defined procedures and responsible contact persons for alarm plans .
Prediction of upcoming damage
A warning is the prediction of an imminent harm that could still be prevented or alleviated. A typical warning, on the other hand, is when nothing more can be done - but here the knowledge of the damage case should lead to the first phase of its processing.
In order to set up a meaningful warning system, two risks generally have to be weighed against each other, which in theoretical statistics are related to the so-called first or second order probability:
a) Predicting information about any possible damage - with the consequence of frequent false alarms and a certain numbing of those affected
b ) To announce only very likely damaging events - with the risk of not sufficiently considering unexpected effects or unfortunate chains.
c) The correct approach to the warning threshold is therefore a crucial question for politics, administration and the general public.
Furthermore, every reliable forecast is preceded by the receipt of reliable data as well as corresponding analyzes and usually also research . The amalgamation of such work (partly based on private initiatives) with public interest must also be taken into account.
Known warning systems
There are alarm and warning services for a wide variety of areas. Well-known examples are:
- official warning services in civil protection, e.g. B. Warning offices (Germany)
- Plant protection warning service provides the agricultural sector with predictions about impending pest dangers and plant diseases
- Traffic information on the radio, black ice and traffic jam warning
- Light signals and variable message signs on streets and footpaths
- Severe weather and storm warning for tourism and shipping (see list of official weather warning services )
- Avalanche warning (see list of official avalanche warning services )
- Fire alarms , smog and ozone warnings, poison accidents
- Hydrographic services , see also floods
- Volcano observation and earthquake stations
- Tsunami warning system ( e.g. PTWC )
- Warning systems for landslides and subsidence on buildings
- private and business alarm systems
The best warning service is of little use if urgent reports are not passed on quickly and to the appropriate offices. Depending on the type of danger, provisions must also be made for night hours and weekends, as well as for the possible readiness of hospitals or auxiliary and emergency services. In addition to the police or ministries, specialist departments must often be notified, and in individual cases companies as well.
particularities
Unplanned complications can arise depending on the type of damage that is threatened . In sociology , for example, it is known that many predictions are "wrong" because they are undermined:
In the social sciences is almost any "warning" a potentially self-destructive forecast ( self-destroying prophecy ): For science says something ahead of what the company is seen as a warning and effectively blocked, then was - loosely formulated - the forecast 'false' even though it was 'right'. Such effects are a research topic of the multi-valued " Günther logic ".