World power USA: an obituary

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World power USA: An obituary (original title: Après l'empire: Essai sur la décomposition du système américain ) is the title of a book by Emmanuel Todd in 2002, in which he describes the United States of America as a superpower in decline. The aggressive and unsettling foreign policy of the Bush administration is not a sign of strength, but a final buildup of a power that is now dependent on the rest of the world.

The book received special attention because Todd predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union as early as 1976 in his book La chute finale (German: Before the fall: The end of Soviet rule ) at a time when this seemed absurd to most , and the reasons for it Exactly met circumstances. The basis for his assumption at the time was, among other things, the increasing infant mortality in the USSR and the anthropologically anchored egalitarian attitude of Slavic families.

Basic theses

The basic thesis of this book is that the US is about to lose its status as the “last remaining superpower”. They could no longer muster the necessary military, economic and ideological qualities. This results in their increasing unpredictability and aggressiveness. This is interpreted as a sign of their increasing weakness and as a reaction of frustration to their factual economic dependence on the constantly emancipating great powers Europe and Japan .

The present USA would have developed into a “predatory state” with massive industrial and foreign trade deficits, yet sucking up the finances and products of all other states and transferring its wealth in its own country to a super-rich at the expense of the minorities and lower classes redistribute the anti-democratic upper class.

A data analysis and comparisons with historical world empires lead Todd to the conviction that the United States will regress into a regional power within the next decades, while the EU with a re-strengthened Russia will determine world affairs together with Japan.

According to his prognoses, Europe and the US are about to move apart, accelerated by the military adventures of the latter power in the Middle East. The immediate consequence is an intensification of relations between Germany and France , perhaps also with Great Britain . At the same time, more and more states would turn to Europe.

content

After an introduction, which already presents the conclusions, the book is divided into eight chapters:

  1. The myth of global terrorism
  2. The great democratic threat
  3. The imperial dimension
  4. The uncertainty of the tribute
  5. The decline in universalism
  6. Stand up to the strong or attack the weak
  7. The return of Russia
  8. The emancipation of Europe

The myth of global terrorism

After the title, the chapter begins with the worldwide progress in literacy, which alone makes globalization possible. The literacy , arrived at the women of the world, break the population explosion and reducing the number of births per woman significantly. This development took place in the world and in the same way in the Islamic countries .

With this, these countries would enter the intellectual modern age. The unrest and violence that can be observed in these countries are discovery processes that have taken place in a similar way in Europe and the USA (civil war). Specifically for the thesis of the decline of Islamism , which is particularly violent towards the end, he refers to Gilles Kebel. Based on the literacy development in the countries, he identifies Pakistan and Saudi Arabia as the next trouble spots.

Islamic fundamentalism is therefore a transition phenomenon that can be channeled with patience, but does not have to be combated. The fight against terrorism is pointless and only in the American interest, as it justifies superficial military interventions and the construction of bases in various countries.

The great democratic threat

In extension of Fukuyama's thesis that prosperity leads to democracy, Todd sees the deeper causes for the development towards democratic structures in literacy, even if he then follows Fukuyama in the thesis that the world will one day be united by liberal democracy . Given Doyle's law that democracies do not wage war against one another, this also means the prospect of general peace.

However, in view of the anthropological diversity, very different paths can be expected. And: Such a development does not correspond to the interests of the USA, since only a certain amount of unrest and disorder justifies its military presence in the world. Realistically speaking, a Europe that has now come to rest no longer needs the USA. Since they are also increasingly exploitative, it is time for Europe to turn to Russia as a partner.

The imperial dimension

Todd compares the development of the world economy under American dominance with the historical great empires of Athens and Rome and comes to the conclusion that globalization is not a purely economic, apolitical development. Rather, it requires the precondition in the form of the existence of a politically and militarily dominant power. In this context he describes the idea of ​​the comparative cost advantage as the third American export hit alongside pop music and Hollywood films with a truth content that comes close to that of Hollywood films. This can easily be seen from the fact that world trade is currently not in equilibrium, but rather shows a growing imbalance; this global imbalance between the countries is now increasingly spreading to the countries involved.

In the sense of a Keynesian definition of a world economy, the USA would take over the role of the state. But since the Americans themselves were suspicious of the state and kept it in check, it was the American people themselves from whom the world expected stimulus injections in the form of consumption; for the world they would have the role of the Keynesian civil servant: “They produce nothing and only consume” (p. 98).

The situation can be compared well with that of ancient Rome, when Roman society split into plutocrats and plebs under the constant flow of goods and money from the conquered territories. However, the USA now lacked the two essential imperial prerequisites: its military and economic means of coercion were insufficient to maintain exploitation, and its ideological universalism was in decline, since people and peoples were no longer treated equally.

The uncertainty of the tribute

The American army is too big for national defense, but too small for world domination. In addition, it has repeatedly proven that it is difficult to gain superiority in a ground war and is thus largely incapable of occupying territory.

The pursuit of world domination should not be subordinated to the USA in principle; in fact, after the fall of the USSR, the USA initially reduced its military expenditure and its presence in the world. It was only with the exploding foreign trade deficit from 1997 onwards that the country was rearmed.

The payments to the USA are only comparable to classic tribute payments to a very limited extent. This raises the question of why the world apparently voluntarily brings the money to the USA. An analysis of the inflows shows that investors were primarily looking for safe investment opportunities and that they believed they could find them in the US - despite its growing foreign trade deficit. In doing so, investors also ignored the apparent risk that the investment could, must and will, be lost in one way or another. Todd refers to examples from the time of the creation of the work (2002) and speculates whether the looming dollar weakness is just a fluctuation or the beginning of the inevitable major cleaning that will end the imperial economic position of the USA. The US could only maintain its claim longer if it lived its universalism (as all empires did before) and did not treat foreigners as second-class subjects - which would unfortunately become the main ideological trend of Americans at the moment.

The decline in universalism

An essential and sustaining force in empires is the ability to treat people and peoples equally, universalism . This is a prerequisite for further expansion. Universalism is the decisive reason why Rome surpassed Athens by far and outlived it.

The ability to egalitarianism and thus universalism of a people is already inherent in the family structure, which is essentially recognizable by whether the brothers are treated equally as heirs. In the case of the Anglo-Saxons , the disposition is not clear. On the one hand, they never tried to integrate subjugated peoples, but on the other hand, they left their customs and traditions largely untouched. In the USA you can find both: considerable integration successes were achieved during the immigration phase , on the other hand Indians and blacks, for example, were excluded.

The cause of this ambivalence can be found in the English family structures, which have no clear rules when inheriting, but can be distributed equally and unequally among the children at will. The relationship between the Anglo-Saxons and the world is always in motion. With very different tendencies, the barrier shifts between indifferent and continuously differentiated - which Todd then shows in detail in American history.

Under the pressure of communist competition, America wanted to be attractive and therefore intensified its efforts to integrate blacks as well. Since this competition disappeared, the circle has been drawn closer again and blacks and Hispanics are increasingly marginalized. He demonstrates this, among other things, in infant mortality and its development among the various population groups in the USA. He emphasizes that the exclusions are necessary in order to achieve other integration achievements, for example with the Jews and the Japanese . The one-sided partisanship for Israel is an example of the "turning away from universalism and turning to exclusionary views" (p. 145). America has lost the power of the victor that allows cultures to merge. Today's America, unlike in the past, is unproductive and no longer tolerant .

Stand up to the strong or attack the weak

The USA had to struggle with a fundamental contradiction. They would have to maintain an economic balance without having the military and ideological prerequisites to do so. The political elite of the United States had after the collapse of the Soviet Union also developed no strategy, but taken with the imperial option simply the closest of least resistance, where - as draft strategy on Zbigniew Brzezinski in his book " The Grand Chessboard explained" - this option was also not implemented strategically. Rather, the American elite let things run wild, only reacting briefly to current requirements, rarely strategically or even really imperially. Due to the lack of resources and dependence on the world, the hysterical handling of secondary conflicts serves as a substitute for evidence of his power.

The fixation on the Islamic countries points to three further weaknesses of the USA (and this is proven with extensive materials):

  • The increased intolerance towards the role of women in Islam on the decline of the universalist ideology,
  • the obsession to have to secure the Arab oil, on the dramatic loss of one's own economic efficiency and
  • the attacks on the militarily weak Islamic world conceal their own military inadequacy on land.

The return of Russia

The United States liked a behavior towards Russia that resembled the benevolence that one shows towards a dying person. The two main strategic options vis-à-vis Russia have already been gambled away or practically gambled:

  • The dissolution of Russia through the stirring up of separatist tendencies had failed.
  • By maintaining a certain level of tension, Europe should be prevented from drawing closer to Russia; this is about to fail.

Given the dramatic increase in mortality rates and a simultaneous sharp decline in the birth rate per woman, Russia is currently suffering a significant decline in population. However, since the economic data is improving again, a trend reversal can be expected here. Both real economic output and the functions of the state increased again in Russia (2002).

In the case of Russia, a universalistic basic structure can be assumed. It stripped off one of the most comprehensive totalitarian regimes in human history. The Russian political elite reacted to the events of the past few years with admirable intelligence. From this point of view, the observable totalitarian tendencies are certainly unpleasant, but not as terrible as they appear at first glance.

Due to the universalistic tendency of its population, Russia has great potential to play a balancing role on the international stage, provided it does not sink into anarchy or authoritarianism . A rebalanced Russia would have a highly educated population with almost complete literacy and would be almost independent of imports. This allows Russia to have a much quieter policy than the USA.

Strategically it should be considered that of the successor states of the former Soviet Union only the Baltic countries had traditional ties to Europe, the rest were characterized by their strong anthropological affinities to Russia. Therefore it can be assumed that the development of democracy in these countries depends heavily on the development of Russia. Although Russia is not a sure candidate for democracy, it is a reliable one on the diplomatic stage - on the one hand because of its current weakness, but also because of its basic universalist attitude.

The emancipation of Europe

Europe experiences the former peacemaker USA increasingly as a troublemaker and develops worrying doubts about the sense of responsibility of the leading power, is slowly giving up obedience and finding itself together on its own responsibility. The European core countries were both attracted and repelled by the USA. This is an area of ​​tension, typical for an approaching divorce. Since integration into the American empire presupposes a conscious decision by the European countries, this is not to be expected. However, if you let things take their course, a divergence is inevitable.

Culturally there are also fundamental differences between Europe and the USA: In America, religious phrases determined everyday life, while core Europe has developed into agnosticism . Europeans largely opposed the death penalty, while Americans zealously executed. The role of American women provokes castration fears among Europeans and is as scary to them as the dominance of Muslim men.

The European societies emerged from the hard work of poor farmers. A sense of balanced economic activity is therefore anchored in them almost genetically. The Americans, on the other hand, could have built on seemingly inexhaustible resources and developed a "growth religion" that did not care about balance.

Unlike the Americans, the Europeans do not have a hostile relationship with their state and accept social security as the core of state compensation. Against this background, American capitalism appears to Europeans as a threat. This also applies to Japan. In view of the observable fact that America is finding it increasingly difficult to feed its own population, their model is less and less a role model. In addition, the tendency to export the model to Europe caused unrest there and a rise in right-wing extremism . In this dispute, Germany is discovering its proximity to France in Rhenish capitalism .

Europe is increasingly emancipating itself economically and is also becoming increasingly attractive for previous bases in the USA, Turkey , Poland and Great Britain . This would also weaken the US militarily. Europe also has no particular problem with its outside world. It maintains worldwide trade relations and pays for its imports from the surpluses, thus having a long-term peaceful interest. For Europe, both Arabia and Russia represented a reliable option in the exchange of raw materials for industrial goods. It is still uncertain how the UK will decide, but introducing the euro there would also tie this country firmly to Europe and its course away from America.

Enough

An upheaval is taking place in the world with pain, but it promises development and more democracy worldwide. America is in many ways too weak to achieve real world domination.

In order to maintain the appearance of a world power, it must therefore be militarily active against insignificant states. In doing so, however, they underestimated how much they drove Japan and Europe away from themselves and into other hands. Europe is becoming increasingly aware that Russia no longer poses a military risk, but that it does contribute to European security. Europe also becomes aware that the American activities in the Gulf endanger the European oil supply more than the American one, because Europe is much more dependent on this oil than the USA, which supplies itself elsewhere and America thus indirectly controls the European one.

The emerging new world will hardly be uniformly democratic. While the developing countries were actually developing in the direction of democracy, there was an unmistakable trend towards oligarchy , which was evident from the differentiation of layers of different educational levels there. In this regard, the US is no longer a democracy, which confirms its ability to wage wars of aggression.

America must go through a massive crisis, which must also lead to a realistic recalculation of its gross domestic product . This is the chance for the USA to become a democratic, liberal and productive country again. Meanwhile, Europe must negotiate oil directly with Russia, Iran and Arab countries.

Japan and Germany belonged on the Security Council. Overall, it is important to realize that the really big driving forces are demography and education .

reception

John Kampfner , chairman of the British Creative Industries Federation and newspaper editor, wrote of the book in 2004 that it was a powerful antidote to the "hysterical exaggeration of America's power and potential by American triumphalists and anti-American polemicists alike. [...] (Todd understand) 'unlike the American elite, that military power and the import of manufactured goods and migrants have contributed to promoting global growth'. In other words, the US lives on borrowed time. The maintenance of their wealth depends on cheap labor ( sweatshop labor ) inside and outside their borders. ”The imports of the“ retail monster ” Walt-mart alone explain an increase in the Chinese gross domestic product . However, he "falls back into the worst instincts of the modern French political class in the transition from the individual to the general by using windy constructions to disguise a bad mix of clichés and wishful thinking". So he overestimated the autonomy of Europe. Kampfner also praises Todd's sparkling language, such as the term “theatrical micromilitarism” to characterize US politics.

Web links

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  1. ↑ Emmanuel Todd: World Power USA: An Obituary. 6th edition, Piper, Munich 2003, ISBN 3-492-04535-9 .
  2. ↑ Todd, Emmanuel: Before the Fall: The End of Soviet Rule. Frankfurt: Ullstein, 1977, ISBN 3-550-17364-4
  3. ↑ Todd's central source is also given here: Kebel, Gilles: The Black Book of Jihad: Rise and Fall of Islamism. Munich: Piper, 2002, ISBN 3-492-04432-8
  4. ↑ Todd's central source is additionally given here: Fukuyama, Francis : The end of the story: Where are we? Munich: Kindler, 1992, ISBN 3-463-40132-0
  5. ↑ Since the US is about to wage a war of aggression against Iraq in 2002, Todd takes Doyle's law as evidence that the US is no longer a democracy. Michael Doyle: Kant, Liberal Legacies, and Foreign Policy. In: Philosophy and Public Affairs, I and II, (1983) 12, pp. 205-235 and 323-352 (quoted from Todd)
  6. ↑ John Kampfner: End of the US Empire. In: The Guardian, February 8, 2004. Translated from the English.