Fictional voter
A fictitious voter is a statistical term used by the Federal Statistical Office in Switzerland for the calculation of the number of voters in national elections for the whole of Switzerland.
In contrast to other states, the electorate has a different number of votes depending on the number of inhabitants. The number of seats per canton is determined based on the last census .
Calculation method
A person entitled to vote in so-called single constituencies - constituencies with only one seat in the National Council - only has one vote. In these cantons, all eligible voters of the respective cantons can be elected as members of parliament. And not just registered candidates. There are no votes for official candidacies or for a few. In theory, every eligible voter could vote for himself. Each vote counts 1: 1 for the calculation of the fictitious voters. This applies to the cantons of Appenzell Ausserrhoden , Appenzell Innerrhoden , Glarus , Nidwalden , Obwalden and Uri .
In all other cantons more than one national councilor is elected. Depending on the number of residents, between 2 and 35 (Canton Zurich). In the multiple electoral districts, each voter has as many votes as there are seats available in his canton. He can assign these votes to any candidate on the lists that are standing for election ( panaschieren ). One vote for a candidate is also one vote for his party. If a voter has not given all of his votes to candidates, these votes go as so-called “additional votes” to the list he has elected. If the voter does not select a list, but uses a so-called «ballot slip without party name» - also known as a blank list - unused votes expire (so-called empty votes).
In order to obtain results that are comparable across cantons, the number of fictitious voters per canton and party must first be calculated. And the total of all fictitious voters of the individual cantons is then the voters at the state level (e.g. 2015 SVP rounded to 734,171 voters). A “voter” can also consist of several people who only have one candidate from the party concerned on their list.
The Federal Statistical Office therefore uses the term fictitious voter for the voter , since an effective voter can only be a partial voter. The number of voters corresponds to the number of valid ballot papers. At the canton level, the sum of all party votes (sum of the candidate votes of candidates from a party plus additional votes = empty fields in a party list) is the basis for calculation.
Example single constituency
The canton of Nidwalden is entitled to a seat in the National Council based on the number of inhabitants in the last census. The result:
Canton of Nidwalden (1 seat)
| Surname | Political party | be right | fictional voters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Keller | SVP | 13,380 | 13,380 |
| Andreas Fagetti | independent 1 | 2,776 | 2,776 |
| Isolated voices | 0 | 0 | |
| total | 16'156 | 16'156 |
The number of party votes (SVP, enabling democracy and isolated votes) is 16,156, the number of fictitious voters is also 16,156.
Example multiple constituency
Based on the population of the last census, the Canton of Lucerne is entitled to ten National Council seats. The result:
Canton of Lucerne (10 seats)
| Political party | Abbreviation | be right | fictional voters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swiss People's Party 2 | SVP | 383,859 | 38,806.70 |
| Christian Democratic People's Party 3 | CVP | 321,082 | 32,460.18 |
| FDP The Liberals 4 | FDP | 248,581 | 25,130.60 |
| Social Democratic Party 5 | SP | 182,527 | 18,452.79 |
| Green 6 | GPS | 95'210 | 9,625.37 |
| Green Liberal Party 7 | glp | 77,661 | 7,851.23 |
| Bourgeois Democratic Party | BDP | 18,405 | 1,860.68 |
| Evangelical People's Party | EPP | 8,494 | 858.71 |
| Integral politics | 4,659 | 471.01 | |
| Non-party Swiss | 4,510 | 455.94 | |
| Swiss democrats | SD | 1,175 | 118.79 |
| total | 1,346,163 | 136,092 |
The number of party votes is 1,346,163 (candidate votes and additional votes), the number of fictitious voters is 136,092 (number of valid ballot papers). Calculation: Party votes for party X divided by the total number of party votes, multiplied by the number of valid ballot papers, results in the fictitious voters. Example SD (1,175: 1,346,163 × 136,092 = 118.79 fictitious voters).
With 136,092 valid ballot papers, 10 seats result in a maximum total of 1,360,920 party votes. The difference between this maximum and the party votes (1,346,163) is 14,757. This corresponds to the number of blank votes = empty lines on ballot papers without party name.
The total of all fictitious voters of a party in the cantons then gives the number of fictitious voters at federal level.
In 2015, all ballot papers were evaluated in the canton of Zurich. This means that the canton of Zurich now knows exactly how many of the 427,769 valid ballot papers the SVP, FDP, SP etc. were elected at least once on. Thus it is known in Zurich how many voters a party has (= effective voters). In other cantons, the ballot papers have not (yet) been evaluated in this way and the number of effective voters is only known in the single-electoral districts and in the canton of Zurich.
Web links
- National Council elections (party votes, fictitious voters and party strength since 1975: Switzerland and cantons)
- Contribution by Claude Longchamp on the calculation of voters by the Federal Statistical Office
Sources and individual references
- ^ [1] , Swiss Confederation, Federal Statistical Office, Panorama 2016 - Statistical bases and overviews, page 9
- ↑ National Council election 2015 in the canton of Nidwalden , Federal Gazette No. 46 of November 24, 2015, page 8033
- ↑ National Council election 2015 in the canton of Lucerne , Federal Gazette No. 46 of November 24, 2015, page 8006
- ↑ Evaluation of the 2015 National Council elections by the Statistical Office of the Canton of Zurich