Jevons paradox

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In economics, the Jevons Paradox is an observation by William Stanley Jevons , according to which technical progress that allows a more efficient use of a raw material ultimately leads to an increased use of this raw material instead of a decrease. Today we speak of a rebound effect in a broader sense .

Development of the English coal consumption and development of the steam engine

In his book The Coal Question , published in 1865 , Jevons found that England's coal consumption increased after the introduction of James Watts' coal-fired steam engine , although it was far more efficient than Thomas Newcomen's earlier version. Watt's innovations made coal a more cost-effective source of energy and led to the increasing use of his steam engine in the transport sector and other industrial sectors. This led to the overall increase in coal consumption, although at the same time the consumption of each individual application decreased.

Background and other uses

A more efficient use of a raw material also makes it possible to do more work and manufacture products. This is associated with price reductions, which increase demand and thus possibly cancel out the original increase in efficiency. This also promotes the establishment of new market segments and services.

  • Hoped-for energy savings through the introduction of summer time were partially offset by increased evening activities.
  • Induced traffic: Time gains through new transport infrastructure and modes of transport are offset by longer travel distances, travel frequencies and increased commuting and do not lead to time and energy savings in the long term.
  • Higher computer performance is mostly offset by more complex software and more demanding computer games. (see: Economic law )

Effects on raw material consumption and prices

Jevons Paradox is also considered to be the forerunner of today's debate about the possible global effects of maximum oil production and sensible countermeasures. According to Jevons, energy savings and increased efficiency do not lead to a reduction in raw material or overall energy consumption; He therefore feared an imminent energy crisis due to the long-term unmet demand for coal. This had not come true due to the entry into the use of oil from 1859. In addition, new global technologies and processes made it possible today (2008) not only to mine significantly more coal at a lower price than was possible or imaginable in Jevon's time, but also to develop other energy sources and use them with high efficiency for new applications and markets. According to Julian L. Simon , this should also apply to future shortage scenarios.

Jevons had only referred to the British coal supplies, however, not to a worldwide supply. The coal production peak in Great Britain came in 1930; More than 100 years after the publication of The Coal Question in 1869, coal mining collapsed ( also for political reasons ) in his home country, with the serious consequences he predicted for British steel production.

literature

  • William Stanley Jevons: The Coal Question , London: Macmillan and Co., 1866. ( online here )

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