Rebound effect (economy)

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The rebound effect ( English for rebound or kickback effect ) describes several effects in energy economics that lead to the potential for savings from increasing efficiency not being realized or only partially realized. The increase in efficiency ensures that the consumer has less spending and can therefore purchase more products. If the increase in efficiency even leads to increased consumption (i.e. a rebound effect of over 100 percent), we speak of backfire .

Direct and indirect effects

The rebound effect is an increase in energy consumption due to an increase in efficiency. It is a percentage of the theoretical savings potential from efficiency increases that is not saved due to consumer behavior. For example, if efficiency increases by 25%, it is expected that resource consumption will decrease by 20% (= 1-1 / 1.25). But if the resource consumption only decreases by 10%, the size of the rebound effect is 50%. Several effects contribute to the rebound. To speak of rebound, these effects must be caused by the increase in efficiency. If an increase in volume, which occurs independently of the increase in efficiency, reduces the efficiency gains, there is no rebound.

  • Direct rebound effect: The direct rebound effect is an increased demand for the same good. This makes an energy service that is offered more efficiently cheaper. There is greater demand for what becomes cheaper. For example, a more efficient lamp saves energy that is (partially) used for longer lighting times (e.g. at night). Replacing products can also trigger rebound effects. For example, in the Scandinavian countries, light bulbs have been replaced by more efficient energy-saving lamps. They generate less heat, which has to be compensated for by additional heating, especially in winter, and reduces the effect of the savings measure.
  • Indirect rebound effect: if you save energy and thus money thanks to increased efficiency, you spend the money on other things that also consume energy. This increases the demand for additional products, whose manufacture, operation and disposal also require energy. For example, after buying an efficient car, gasoline is saved. The money from these savings can then be used for a flight. The psychological effect that can lead to the indirect rebound effect is called moral licensing .
  • Macroeconomic rebound effect: The energy saved is available as an additional offer on the (global) market. An additional supply lowers the price, which stimulates demand . In other words: what one saves, another uses. As a result, less energy is saved overall than was expected due to the efficiency. This effect includes both direct and indirect rebound effects.

Examples

An example of a rebound effect is the introduction of tungsten filament bulbs to replace carbon filament lamps in the early 20th century. They only use a quarter as much energy for the same light output. When they were introduced in the UK, many electricity companies feared a slump in sales. Others, however, realized that the cheaper light could now conquer a mass market and lowered prices. You were right: Power consumption increased (not only, but also) because of the more efficient lamps.

An example that is often cited is the development of television sets. Although the energy consumption per square centimeter of screen area fell from 25 to 45 milliwatts in 2000 to 17 milliwatts in 2014, the overall performance of the devices increased because of larger screens. If larger screens are bought more often because the technology has become more efficient, this is a (direct) rebound effect. Insofar as the preference for larger screens has increased independently of energy consumption (and would have increased if energy efficiency had remained the same), this is not a rebound effect.

  • SYRONICS television set.JPG
  • Televisio3DPhilips mirrored.png

Another example that is often used is the car. A more efficient car reduces the costs per kilometer driven. As a result, many consumers use their car more often and drive more vehicle kilometers. In Japan, a study showed that drivers who believe they have bought an 'ecological' car have driven 1.6 times more kilometers than with their conventional car one year after buying it.

causes

There are both financial and psychological causes for the rebound effect.

  • Financial rebound effect: The real income of consumers is increased by the rebound effect (" income effect "), which is why consumers can also consume other products. So total consumption increases. Replacing products (such as fossil fuels with renewable energies) can also trigger additional rebound effects.
  • Transformation effect: Technical efficiency increases change consumer behavior , which affects infrastructures, social norms and so on. If, for example, traffic becomes more efficient, settlement structures change, small shops disappear and shopping centers emerge, which ultimately forces a certain type of traffic behavior again.
  • Mental rebound effect: Sometimes savings through more efficient technologies lead to moral self- legitimacy ( moral licensing ) of additional consumption. If drivers switch to a gas-powered vehicle, they can step on the gas with a clear conscience or cover longer distances. Part of the possible savings is thus compensated for by higher consumption. Households can also let energy-saving lamps burn longer than conventional light bulbs and still “do something for the environment”. Sometimes the symbolic meaning of the goods changes; for example, by turning the products into a status symbol, there is an increasing demand for them.

History of theory

William Stanley Jevons published The Coal Question in 1865 in which he wrote:

“It is wholly a confusion of ideas to suppose that the economic use of fuel is equivalent to a diminished consumption. The very contrary is the truth. "

“To assume that the economical use of fuels goes hand in hand with lower consumption is a complete confusion of terms. The exact opposite is the case. "

According to today's terminology (the term rebound came later), Jevons even calculated with backfire. In the years that followed, the idea was forgotten. Around 1980 Leonard Brookes and Daniel Khazzoom wrote their first scientific papers on the topic again. Rebound in relation to raw materials is now called Jevons' paradox .

practice

The UN Panel of Experts on Climate Change ( IPCC) mentions rebound several times in its report and explains the term in the glossary; however, it does not take rebound effects into account in its scenarios. The proposal of environmental economists , instead of eco-efficiency , the sufficiency increase, is considered unenforceable. Irrespective of this, sufficiency is also not free from rebound effects.

Because rebound effects can have diverse and very indirect effects, it is not possible to measure them. Opinions as to how great the rebound effect usually turns out therefore differ widely. A study by the British state energy research center UKERC found in 2007 that relatively reliable figures only exist on the direct rebound effect and only on areas such as transport and the budget in industrialized countries. In any case, it is “wrong to assume that rebound effects are so small that they can be neglected.” Publications from the beginning of 2013 indicate the effect as 5 to 30% of the previously saved energy. Most of the savings remain, the effect is overestimated: “Environmentally harmful emissions can be saved through more efficient use of energy. Anyone who denies this drives a diversionary maneuver ”.

Rebound effects can only be excluded if supply is used instead of demand: An (artificial or natural) supply shortage leaves no room for rebound effects. The effects otherwise responsible for a rebound then increase the price increase as a result of the supply shortage.

Financial incentives that (should) lead to efficiency gains can have different effects: If energy-efficient products or services are supported by subsidies, they become cheaper. Therefore, with such subsidies, rebound effects or possibly backfire are to be expected much more strongly than, for example, in the case of energy taxes , which lead to the same degree of cost differences between more or less energy-efficient products or their use, because energy taxes also lead to higher-quality products Energy efficiency at a certain price.

In the case of products or services for which the energy costs determine a larger part of the total price, rebound or backfire is more likely than in the case of a low cost component, and the price-dependency of demand also plays a role. For example, more efficient cars can result in long-distance cross-country journeys at higher speeds, while urban journeys are less affected because it would require additional time spent in the car. Even more, for example, the number of visits to the dentist will not increase with more energy-efficient practice equipment.

Negative rebound effects can be achieved by taxing very energy-intensive products if there are lower-energy alternative products. This results in effects that intensify the desired effect. First, the budget of those consumers who consume the energy-intensive product is reduced, which in turn reduces their consumption overall. Second, some consumers will switch to a lower-energy product. However, the prerequisite for such a reinforcement effect is that the tax revenue is not used by the state for the renewed consumption of energy-intensive goods. These effects are similar to those of a Pigou tax .

In June 2015, three institutes investigated on behalf of the Federal Environment Agency how politics could counter rebound effects. In the study, the researchers recommend an environmental policy mix. The preferred solution strategy is to combine efficiency promotion and taxes on the use of a resource. By gradually increasing the levies, rebound effects could be partially or completely avoided.

Rebound effects outside of the energy economy

Rebound effects can also be found outside of the energy economy. For example, rebound effects occur in the areas of drinking water, phosphorus and rare earths.

A time rebound effect is often observed: for example, faster traffic connections mean that longer distances are covered; Time-saving household appliances such as washing machines are changing social standards (more washing is done, etc.).

In traffic and work psychology , the rebound effect is known as risk compensation : Anyone who feels safer with a seatbelt, airbag and ABS, with a bicycle helmet or as a result of occupational safety measures, tends to behave more risky or have to expect riskier actions by others.

See also

literature

Web links

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ Energy efficiency: largest energy source or source of additional demand? Retrieved October 18, 2019 .
  2. ↑ a b c d Peter de Haan u. a .: Rebound effects: their significance for environmental policy. (PDF) UBA texts 31/2015. Federal Environment Agency, June 2015, accessed on August 28, 2020 .
  3. ↑ Quoted from Horace Herring: Is Energy Efficiency Environmentally Friendly ?, Energy & Environment 11 (2000), No. 3, pp. 313-325.
  4. ↑ Calculation of the energy consumption per square centimeter of image area on the discussion page, version dated February 4, 2016.
  5. ↑ a b Quoted from: Tilman Santarius. The rebound effect: About the undesirable consequences of the desired energy efficiency. Wuppertal 2012
  6. ↑ See e.g. E.g. Erik Poppe: The rebound effect. Environmental Policy Challenge. (PDF; 1602 KiB) Freie Universität Berlin 2013, pp. 39–41.
  7. ^ Digitized at Archive.org
  8. ↑ An overview of the history of the rebound concept can be found in Blake Alcott: Historical Overview in the Jevons Paradox in the Literature , in: John M. Polimeni et al., The Jevons Paradox and the Myth of Resource Efficiency Improvements . London 2007.
  9. ↑ rebound effect at finanzen-lexikon.de
  10. ^ Compare Blake Alcott, "The sufficiency strategy: Would rich-world frugality lower environmental impact?", Ecological Economics 64 (2007), No. 4, pages 770-786
  11. ↑ Steven Sorrell: The Rebound Effect. (PDF) An Assessment of the Evidence for Economy-wide Energy Savings from Improved Energy Efficiency. UK Energy Research Center, October 2007, accessed August 28, 2020 .
  12. ↑ Saving energy: The “rebound effect” is overestimated , Spektrum der Wissenschaft on January 23, 2013, originally published in Nature : Energy policy: The rebound effect is overplayed .
    More consumption due to more economical equipment , scientific journal in the Swiss Radio DRS on January 26, 2013
  13. ↑ See e.g. E.g .: Mathias Binswanger: Time-saving Innovations and their Impact on Energy Use: Some Lessons from a Household-Production-Function Approach . University of Applied Sciences of Northwestern Switzerland Discussion Paper No. 2002-W01, Solothurn 2002.
  14. ↑ See e.g. B. Jochen Paulus: No risk, no fun? In: Bild der Wissenschaft 07/2007.
    Why a little uncertainty improves security. On: Wissenschaft.de from June 19, 2007.