Nationally Determined Contributions

The terms nationally determined contributions ( NDCs ) and nationally determined contributions denote a concept according to which the signatory states to the Paris Agreement must develop national climate protection goals, communicate internationally and regularly update them. The goals are not binding under international law , but the signatory states to the Paris Agreement must implement measures that contribute to the implementation of the NDCs.

Central properties

National elaboration

Instead of internationally established and internationally binding climate protection goals , the Paris Agreement selected an approach that obliges the contracting states to regularly formulate their own climate protection contributions, the NDCs . The contributions are therefore worked out at national level, which gives the signatory states considerable leeway in setting their climate protection goals.

No binding under international law

The Paris Agreement does not oblige its contracting states to achieve the climate protection goals specified in the NDCs, but the states must take climate protection measures that contribute to the implementation of the NDCs (Art. 4.2).

Diversity of NDCs: No agreement on binding NDC requirements

In the run-up to the Paris climate negotiations , it was not possible to agree on binding guidelines for the development of NDCs. The NDCs submitted so far therefore differ considerably: While some countries have specified macroeconomic reduction targets for their NDCs, the NDCs of other countries only contain targeted climate protection measures, without quantitative information. In this context, it should also be emphasized that, in addition to unconditional contributions, numerous states have also promised contributions that are tied to certain conditions, such as international climate finance . This diversity not only makes it difficult to compare the NDCs, it also makes it difficult to assess the collective climate protection effects.

NDCs as an integral part of the architecture of the Paris Agreement

NDCs represent the central point of reference of the Paris Agreement and are firmly embedded in the architecture of the agreement: The contracting states not only have to submit NDCs and renew them every five years, but also report regularly on the progress of the implementation of the objectives (Art. 13). The reports submitted are subjected to an international assessment. This creates a considerable reputational risk for states whose measures fall short of the goals they have set themselves.

In addition to this transparency framework, the Paris Agreement created a mechanism that is intended to bring about regular sharpening of the NDCs over time. This mechanism stipulates that the NDCs set by the contracting states every five years must go beyond the targets applicable up to that point and should reflect the highest possible climate protection ambition (Art. 4.3). Every five years, a global stocktake is also carried out, which takes stock of the collective progress towards achieving the long-term goals anchored in the Paris Agreement (Art. 14). The results of this inventory should be taken into account when determining the national climate protection contributions (Art. 4.9).

Background of the concept and future development

NDCs as a result of a paradigm shift in global climate policy

The emergence of the concept of Nationally Determined Contributions must be viewed against the background of a comprehensive paradigm shift in international climate policy . The Kyoto Protocol negotiated in the 1990s was still based on the so-called targets and timetables approach, in which nationally binding climate protection targets were derived from a global emission reduction target . A continuation of this approach under a follow-up agreement with global participation was politically unenforceable: the USAmade it clear very early on that an agreement with their participation must have a completely different character and cannot include binding reduction targets. The large emerging economies such as China and India also opposed the expansion of binding climate protection targets under international law to include developing countries . From their point of view, such a step runs counter to the principle of “common but different responsibility” from the Framework Convention on Climate Change , according to which industrialized countries have been historically responsible for climate change and the means available to them in combating climate changeneed to move forward. Many industrialized countries, on the other hand, sought to overcome the static distinction between industrialized and developing countries, and referred to the rapidly increasing emissions in developing countries since the 1990s and to the financial resources available to the countries. With regard to their binding character under international law, the climate protection goals of all states should therefore be the same.

At the 2013 climate negotiations in Warsaw, a key step was finally taken in overcoming these obstacles, in that the contracting states agreed on the formulation of Nationally Determined Contributions . Since these contributions ( " contributions ") - unlike climate change commitments ( " commitments ") - are not mandatory, the concerns of the great were emerging markets and the United States be eliminated, while at the same time the desire of progressive industrial nations by international law uniform climate protection targets for all states could be met.

NDCs as part of the Paris Agreement

With the introduction of the concept at the climate conference in Warsaw in 2013, all contracting states of the UNFCCC were called upon to develop NDCs at national level in advance of the Paris climate conference and to announce them as early as possible (Decision 1 / CP.19, para 2 (b)). These contributions initially had a provisional, non-binding character, which was underlined by the designation as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). After the signatory states join the Paris Agreementthey were called upon to submit their final NDCs. Most of the countries have confirmed their contributions previously submitted as INDCs as NDCs: The INDCs have become NDCs. This difference is not taken into account in the analysis. Since the climate protection goals of the individual states were thus developed outside of the UN climate negotiations, a central conflict issue could be outsourced. The early announcement strengthened the trust between the negotiating parties and the negotiations could concentrate on other areas. The NDC concept can therefore be seen as a forerunner of the Paris Agreement .

Negotiations on an NDC set of rules

In the run-up to the Paris climate negotiations, the contracting states failed to agree binding specifications for the properties of NDCs and the information to be submitted by the states. The resulting diversity not only makes it difficult to compare climate protection contributions, it also makes it difficult to assess the collective climate impact. In order to counteract this, the contracting states agreed in Paris to develop common guidelines (Decision 1 / CP21: para 26, 28). These guidelines should become part of the rule book of the Paris Agreement .

The negotiations on the common NDC guidelines turned out to be difficult. At the climate negotiations in Bonn in November 2017 , the contracting states had different opinions: Many developing countries pleaded for a fundamental differentiation between industrialized and developing countries, so that fundamentally different approaches should be used. This was viewed critically by some industrialized countries . They feared that this could lead to a renewed differentiation of the countries into two camps, as is already known from the Kyoto Protocol : Here was the so-called firewallbetween industrialized and developing countries led to emerging and developing countries being excluded from mandatory reductions at an early stage. Therefore, at the negotiations in Bonn, the industrialized countries sought a common approach for all countries, within which the developing countries were allowed more flexibility.

As a result of the Katowice Climate Change Conference (2018) , the signatory states adopted a common set of rules, including guidelines for reporting by NDCs.

Currently submitted NDCs

At the beginning of 2018, 174 countries had ratified the Paris Agreement. 167 NDCs were submitted by January 2018.

The climate impact of NDC currently submitted is not sufficient even if fully implemented, to the warming of global average temperature below 2 ° C to significantly limit; the aim of the Paris Agreement would therefore be clearly missed. UNEP calculations have shown that there is a reduction gap of 11 to 13.5 gigatons of CO ₂ for the year 2030 . According to the Climate Action Tracker , even if the NDCs are fully implemented, global warming in 2100 will be 2.8 ° C. With the US withdrawing from the Paris Agreement , the temperature rise compared to pre-industrial levels could even be 3.1 ° C.

In December 2020, Great Britain took on a leading role in international climate policy with an ambitious emissions target: By 2030, greenhouse gas emissions are expected to be 68 percent below the 1990 level. Switzerland wants to reduce its emissions by at least 50 percent by 2030 and achieve the net zero target by 2050 . Many other countries want to update or expand their national climate commitments.

Summary and Outlook

The concept of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) is an expression of a paradigm shift in international climate policy and changed political framework conditions under which binding reduction targets could not be politically implemented. Firmly embedded in the architecture of the Paris Agreement , NDCs give the contracting states more leeway in setting their climate protection goals, while international review and transparency mechanisms are intended to ensure the implementation of the goals and increase ambition. The cooperation mechanisms set out in Article 6 of the Paris Agreement are also intended to increase the climate protection ambition.

As the analyzes of the NDCs currently submitted make clear, an increase in ambition is urgently required. The success of the NDC concept will therefore largely depend on whether the mechanisms set out in the Paris Agreement to increase ambition can actually develop their effect. The rules (" rule book" ) of the Paris Agreement, which will be adopted at the end of 2018, must lay down robust rules for this. The current negotiations on the " rule book" are therefore of central importance.

Web links

• UN Climate Action Summit: 2020 Climate Progress Tracker Tool. NDCs by country, including their compliance with the Paris Climate Goals

Individual evidence

1. ↑ Lukas Hermwille, Nicolas Kreibich: A price for greenhouse gas emissions - market-based instruments for international climate protection. Ed .: Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety. Berlin 2016.
2. ↑ Wolfgang Obergassel, Christof Arens, Lukas Hermwille, Nicolas Kreibich, Florian Mersmann, Hermann E. Ott, Hanna Wang-Helmreich: Phoenix from the Ashes: an analysis of the Paris Agreement to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change . In: Environmental law and management . 27th edition. part 1, no. 6 , 2015, p. 243-262 .
3. ↑ Wolfgang Obergassel, Christof Arens, Lukas Hermwille, Nicolas Kreibich, Hermann E. Ott , Hanna Wang-Helmreich: Paris Agreement: Ship Moves out of the Drydock - An Assessment of COP24 in Katowice . Ed .: Wuppertal Institute . February 2019 ( wupperinst.org [PDF; 1.8 MB ]).
4. ^ United Nations Climate Change. UNFCCC, accessed January 29, 2018 . 
5. ↑ United Nations Environment Program (ed.): The Emissions Gap Report 2017: a UN Environment Synthesis report. 2017 ( wur.nl ).
6. ^ Improvement in warming outlook as India and China move ahead, but Paris Agreement gap still looms large. (PDF) (No longer available online.) In: Climate Action Tracker. CAT, 2017, archived from the original on December 8, 2017 ; accessed on January 29, 2017 . Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice.  
7. ↑ Christian Mihatsch: Great Britain is raising its climate target significantly. In: Klimareporter. December 4, 2020, accessed on December 5, 2020 (German). 
8. ↑ Climate protection: Five years of the Paris Agreement. Federal Office for the Environment FOEN, DETEC General Secretariat, December 11, 2020, accessed on December 12, 2020 . 
9. ↑ 2020 NDC Tracker. In: climatewatchdata.org. Retrieved December 12, 2020 . 
10. ↑ Finally get started! WWF Germany, December 12, 2020, accessed on December 12, 2020 .