Risk type

A risk type results from a typology of risk properties and classifies harmful events. For target group segmentation , groups of people (for example investors) are also taken as a risk type; They are classified according to their willingness to take risks or the possibility of addressing them in risk management .

Risk types according to WGBU

In the 1998 annual report of the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), a risk typology was introduced that relativized the scientific perspective on risks. The risk types defined here characterize potential classes of damaging events, which are divided according to the following four criteria:

• Probability of occurrence
• Extent of damage
• Reliable assessment of the probability of occurrence
• Reliable assessment of the extent of damage.

In order to assess global environmental risks, various types of risk are distinguished in the work of international committees:

• Cyclops means a combination of unknown probability and high degree of damage in the event of occurrence. Example: earthquake
• Pythia means a combination of unknown probability and unknown extent of damage in the event of occurrence. Example: BSE
• Damocles means a combination of the lowest probability and high degree of damage in the event of occurrence. Example: breaking a dam
• Pandora means an irreversible effect of substances or things on the environment, the effects of which are still largely unknown. Example: environmental toxins
• Cassandra means a large time span between the cause and the damage. Example: climate change
• Medusa means ambiguity and disagreement about cause and harm. Example: electrosmog

It is named after people and beings from Greek mythology . With this classification, different possible amounts of damage, their probability of occurrence and the perception of risks in the public are classified into categories.

The risk types in detail:

Kassandra

The Kassandra risk type describes dangers in which there is a long period of time between the causation and the occurrence of serious damage. The name refers to the ancient seer Kassandra , who always foresaw correctly, but who never believed anyone.

With this type of risk, it is recommended that the responsibility of states and societies for future generations be strengthened through collective self-commitment and the promotion of long-term global institutions . This also includes informing the public about the consequences of inaction.

A classic example is climate change .

Cyclops

The risk type Cyclops means gigantic, devastating damage if it occurs . In this case, it is clear from the start that the extent of the damage will be enormous. However, the probability of this event occurring is not known or cannot be estimated. It is named after the mythical Cyclops .

An example could be earthquakes or major floods .

Pythia

A characteristic of the Pythia risk type is that neither the extent of damage nor its probability can be assessed. In Greek mythology, Pythia was the high priestess of the Oracle of Delphi .

An example of this is the occurrence of BSE .

Damocles

The Damocles type of risk means gigantic, devastating damage if it occurs . In this case, it is clear from the start that the extent of the damage will be enormous. However, the probability of this event occurring is estimated to be very low. This risk type is named after the ancient Damocles , above whose head a sword hung on a very thin thread.

Examples are the rupture of a dam or the meltdown in a nuclear power plant ( Chernobyl disaster ).

Pandora

The Pandora risk type is characterized by long exposure to substances or things that cannot be reversed, but whose long-term effects are not fully known or cannot be estimated. It is named after the story of Pandora's box , which could no longer be closed.

An example of this is the entry of chemical poisons into the environment .

Medusa

The Medusa risk type is characterized by ambiguity and disagreement. While experts deny and reject risk, parts of the public are afraid and there is a high potential for mobilization, for example via the mass media . It is named after the mythical Medusa , the sight of which made everyone turn to stone.

An example of this are electromagnetic fields in the environment : The discussion about electrosmog .

Further risk typologies

In the business literature, risks are also differentiated according to their origin (“internal risks” / “external risks”) or on the basis of the analysis of the risk structure along the separation of normal operational processes and entrepreneurial risk ; the operational risks then include B. Production risks such as breakage or transport and assembly risks, to the company risks sales and revenue risks , but also investment risks . You can take out insurance against most business risks.

Web links

• Scientific Advisory Council of the Federal Government ( Memento from January 6, 2010 in the Internet Archive )

Individual evidence

1. ↑ Example for the latter: Fund saving and willingness to take risks Step 3: Determination of the individual risk type ( Memento of the original from October 17, 2012 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was automatically inserted and not yet checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. . 
2. ↑ D. Grünwald-Funk target group segmentation for health communication in the field of nutrition - an innovative approach using the example of obesity risk groups Diss. Gießen 2013
3. ↑ Albert Scheibler Business decisions in theory and practice Wiesbaden 1974, p. 104ff.