Self-fulfilling prophecy

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A self-fulfilling prophecy (Engl. Self-fulfilling prophecy ) is a prediction that causes its fulfillment itself. Information about a possible future therefore has a decisive influence and is the main reason why this future will also occur.

An essential mechanism is: People (or, more generally, actors ) believe in the prediction. Therefore they act in such a way that it is fulfilled. There is a positive feedback between expectation and behavior.

In contrast to the self-fulfilling prophecy is self-destructing prophecy (Engl. Prophecy self-defeating ). Such a prophecy triggers reactions that mean that it is just not fulfilled.

First uses

Otto Neurath used the term self-fulfilling prophecy as early as 1911. The sociologist Robert K. Merton worked out the concept in 1948.

theory

Self-fulfilling prophecy

The "self-fulfilling prophecy" was analyzed by Robert K. Merton as a social mechanism to explain the effects of certain attitudes and behaviors, according to the so-called Thomas theorem : "If people define situations as real, their consequences are real."

In 1948, Merton described the phenomenon in a seminal article entitled The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy as follows:

“The self-fulfilling prophecy is, in the beginning, a false definition of the situation evoking a new behavior which makes the original false conception come true . This specious validity of the self-fulfilling prophecy perpetuates a reign of error. For the prophet will cite the actual course of events as proof that he was right from the very beginning. "

“The self-fulfilling prophecy is initially a wrong determination of the situation, but it causes a new behavior which causes the originally wrong view to become correct . The superficial validity of self-fulfilling prophecy continues a reign of error. For the prophet will cite the actual course of events as evidence that he was right from the start. "

The talk of the reign of error ( "reign of error") is a pun on the term reign of terror ( " Terror takes") terms.

Using exemplary cases, Merton demonstrates how the social appearance of a prognosis becomes the decisive cause for this prognosis to come true. For example, under appropriate circumstances, the emergence of the rumor of a bank's financial distress can lead to its actual collapse; whether this rumor was initially objectively justified or not. Merton takes another example from the area of ​​social prejudice: For example, many members of the white working class have the prejudice against blacks that they are “traitors to the working class” because they appear to be wage deprivation on the labor market. Therefore, they should also be excluded from membership in trade unions. This prejudice then acts as a prognosis that fulfills itself. Because blacks are excluded from union membership, they are practically forced to act as wage hunters.

In the famous study, "An American Dilemma," directed by Gunnar Myrdal , racial prejudice in the United States was also traced back to a self-reinforcing process of prejudice that produces its own confirmation. The living conditions of the black population of the lowest standard lead to prejudices among the white population against blacks, which in turn means that blacks cannot leave these conditions. The results of the study led the Supreme Court to rule against racial segregation in schools, construed as official recognition of the theory of cumulative cyclical causation .

Any public dissemination of predictions or warnings about possible events can lead to desired or undesired changes in the behavior of the recipients of this information, which themselves increase or reduce the prognostic content of this information. This phenomenon is best known in election forecasts , which is why polling shortly before the election date is prohibited by law in many countries.

If a consumer changes his preferences for a certain good just because he can observe the consumption preferences of other consumers, this social effect is called the follow-up effect in microeconomics . Corresponding investor behavior is also called " herd behavior ".

Self-destructive prophecy

Merton also mentioned the self-destructive prophecy in the 1948 essay, albeit only in a footnote, without going into detail. At the time, he called it "suicidal prophecy" (in quotation marks) - a prophecy that "kills itself":

“Counterpart of the self-fulfilling prophecy is the 'suicidal prophecy' which so alters human behavior from what would have been its course had the prophecy not been made, that it fails to be borne out. The prophecy destroys itself. This important type is not considered here. "

“The counterpart of self-fulfilling prophecy is 'suicidal prophecy'. It changes human behavior compared to the path it would have taken without the prophecy in a way that it does not come true . The prophecy is self-destructive. This important type [of social prophecy] is not considered here. "

Examples

Self-fulfilling prophecies

  • Placebo effect : Placebos, i.e. tablets without an active ingredient, are used in medicine to achieve an expected psychological effect on the patient.
  • Nocebo effect (analogous to the placebo effect): The expectation that a (supposed) drug will have harmful effects can cause this effect - a harmful side effect is triggered or intensified by the negative expectation. Pessimistic attitudes, bad experiences or anxiety can lead patients to expect a negative effect.
  • A classic experiment was carried out in 1968 by Robert Rosenthal at American elementary schools: First, with a mock test, he convinced the staff that certain students he had chosen at random were so-called highly intelligent "bloomers" who would perform well in the future. In an intelligence measurement at the end of the school year, most of these students had actually greatly improved compared to their intelligence level recorded at the beginning of the school year (45 percent of the children selected as “high-flyers” or “bloomers” were able to increase their IQ by 20 or more points and 20 percent could even increase it by 30 or more points). This Pygmalion effect (similar to the Rosenthal effect ) has been replicated many times since then.
  • The fear of falling leads to a higher number of falls among seniors.
  • Negative campaigning is a form of advertising or political public relations, in which the (political) opponent is to be put in a worse light. A targeted rumor disguised as a forecast can develop its own momentum that ultimately makes it come true. In the USA, negative campaigning is supported by the specific election campaign culture and supported by society and the media. Such campaigns, in part, reflect American culture and are self-fulfilling prophecies.
  • Fear of failure : The belief in the prediction "In this performance test , I will fail" results so deteriorated benefits that the Predicted occurs. This interpretation can also come about even if the person is objectively able to adequately handle the challenge.
  • Horoscope critics point out that predictions such as “You will get to know a woman better this week” or “You are about to have a traffic accident this week” could lead to a change in the behavior of those who believe in it: for example, they speak more courageously than usual at someone or drive more afraid. This does not prove that horoscopes are actually verifiable valid predictions. In particular, this is not possible afterwards.
  • The Andorra Effect states that people often adapt to the judgments and assessments made by society.
  • Baskerville Effect : Studies show that Americans of Chinese and Japanese descent are particularly likely to succumb to cardiac death on the 4th day of each month. This is attributed to 4 as the unlucky number in corresponding cultures, which in Chinese circles is due to the fact that the pronunciation of "4" and "death" in Chinese are very similar.
  • Positive test strategy describes the effect that people look for examples that support the hypothesis to confirm a hypothesis, but not for counter-examples. This leads to confirmation errors (confirmation bias). The selective perception of humans is closely related .

Self-destructive prophecies

  • The prediction of an accident (such as a fire disaster) leads to the fact that measures are initiated that make this accident impossible.
  • An assassination attempt is predicted, therefore countermeasures are taken so that the assassination attempt is foiled.
  • The foreseeable catastrophic spread of an infectious disease such as the COVID-19 pandemic will be prevented by suitable countermeasures.

Methodological problems

The fact that published forecasts have a retroactive effect on the predicted system behavior is often used as an argument to call the predictability of such systems impossible at all.

Methodologically , a complex problem is raised. In the experimental natural sciences, the two-valued logic that is familiar to us is often sufficient if a test arrangement is strictly adhered to : A prognosis is either true or false (W | F) depending on the outcome of the experiment . For predictions in the social sciences, however, a more than two-valued logic such as Günther's logic is required to include all options . Example: To the prognosis that a ship will capsize tomorrow after departure, the captain can react by not facing the "either / or" of capsizing or not, but instead chooses a third option, namely to remain in port - an example already considered by Aristotle . How is that to be understood logically? Günther uses the third value “V” alongside “W” and “F”.

literature

  • E. Aronson , TD Wilson, RM Akert: Social Psychology. Pearson study. 6th edition, 2008, ISBN 978-3-8273-7359-5 .
  • Lars Clausen : On the asymmetry of prognosis and epignosis in the social sciences . In: Ders .: Krasser social change. Leske + Budrich, Opladen 1994, ISBN 3-810-01141-X .
  • Lars Clausen: On the fertility of Günther's logic for the social sciences. Attempt of an epistemological approach to the introduction. Pp. 11-13. In: Reinhard Strangmeier (Ed.): Second Günther Symposium on Trans-Classical Logic - Preliminary Résumé. CAUSA 20 (Christian Albrechts University, sociological work reports). Kiel 1995.
  • Robert K. Merton : The self-fulfilling prophecy. In: The Antioch Review. Volume 8, 1948. pp. 193-210.
  • Robert K. Merton: Sociological Theory and Social Structure. Berlin 1995 (English original 1949), pp. 399-413.
  • Markus Schnepper: Robert K. Merton's theory of the self-fulfilling prophecy. Peter Lang, Frankfurt a. M. 2004, ISBN 3-631-52420-X .
  • Helga Schachinger: The self, the self-knowledge and the feeling for one's own worth. 2005, ISBN 3-456-84188-4 .
  • M. Snyder, ED Tanke, E. Berscheid: Social perception and interpersonal behavior. On the self-fulfilling nature of social stereotypes . In: Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. (PDF; 901 kB) Volume 35, 1977, pp. 656-666.
  • Paul Watzlawick : Chapter Self-fulfilling Prophecies , in Paul Watzlawick (ed.): The invented reality . How do we know what we think we know? Contributions to constructivism. Piper, Munich 1981, ISBN 3-492-02581-1 .
  • Paul Watzlawick: Chapter self-fulfilling prophecies , in: Instructions for unhappiness. Piper, 1988, ISBN 3-492-22100-9 .

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ Otto Neurath (1911): Nationalökonomie und Wertlehre, a systematic study , Journal for Economics, Social Policy and Administration, Vol. 20, Vienna / Leipzig, 1911, pp. 52–114, in: Rudolf Haller, Ulf Höfer (1998): Otto Neurath. Collected economic, sociological and socio-political writings , Vol. 4 and Vol. 5, Vienna: Hölder-Pichler-Tempsky, pp. 470-518, see especially p. 517.
  2. ↑ Cf. Otto Neurath (1921): Anti-Spengler , in: Rudolf Haller, Heiner Rutte (1981): Otto Neurath. Collected philosophical and methodological writings , Vol. 1 and Vol. 2, Vienna: Hölder-Pichler-Tempsky, pp. 139–196, see especially p. 141.
  3. ↑ a b c Robert K. Merton, The self-fulfilling prophecy , in: The Antioch Review , Vol. 8, 1948, pp. 193-210.
  4. ^ Robert K. Merton: The momentum of social predictions. In: Ernst Topitsch, (ed.): Logic of the social sciences. Kiepenheuer & Witsch Cologne Berlin 1965 (translated from: Robert K. Merton: Social theory and social structure. Rev. Enl. Ed. New York 1957). P. 144 ff.
  5. ↑ Jay Weinstein: The Place Of Theory In Applied Sociology: A Reflection. Theory & Science (2000). ISSN  1527-5558 . P. 18.
  6. ↑ Harvey Leibenstein : Bandwagon, Snob, and Veblen Effects in the Theory of Consumers' Demand , The Quarterly Journal of Economics (May 1950); see also: Harvey Leibenstein: Beyond Economic Man: A New Foundation for Microeconomics. Harvard University Press: Cambridge, Mass. 1976.
  7. ^ Robert K. Merton, The self-fulfilling prophecy , in: The Antioch Review , Vol. 8, 1948, pp. 193-210, here p. 196.
  8. ↑ Zalpour, Christoff, ed. Springer Lexikon physiotherapy. Springer-Verlag, 2014. p. 941.
  9. ^ ER Smith, DM Mackie: Social Psychology . Psychology Press, 2nd edition 2000, ISBN 0-86377-587-X , pp. 94 f.
  10. ^ E. Aronson, TD Wilson, RM Akert: Social Psychology . Pearson study. 4th edition 2004. ISBN 3-8273-7084-1 , p. 23.
  11. ^ Elliot Aronson, Timothy D. Wilson, Robin M. Akert: Social Psychology . 2008. Munich: Pearson Studies; Figure 3.6, p. 68.
  12. ↑ 2010 study in the British Medical Journal
  13. ↑ Schmücking, Daniel. Negative campaigning: the impact and development of negative political advertising in the Federal Republic. Springer-Verlag, 2014. p. 64.
  14. ^ Zimbardo, Philip G. "Psychology. 6th, revised and expanded edition." Berlin et al. (1995). P. 576.
  15. ↑ Watzlawick, Paul. Instructions for being unhappy. Gabler, 2006. p. 17.
  16. ↑ SWR2 'Knowledge': Other countries, other unlucky numbers
  17. ↑ "But there can be no real predictive science for a system that might change its behavior if we publish a model of it." - Daniel Cloud in: Scientific Capitalism
  18. ↑ Cf. Lars Clausen : On the asymmetry of prognosis and epignosis in the social sciences. 1994, pp. 169-180, especially pp. 172 ff.