Tipping point

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A native of the English term tipping point (dt. Tipping point or turning point ) indicates a point or moment in which a previously straight and clear development abruptly breaks off by certain feedback, changes direction or is greatly accelerated ( " qualitative turning point ") . In German, the term Kipppunkt or Kippelement is used.

The term was first used in 1957 by Morton Grodzins in an investigation into racial segregation . The American economist Thomas Schelling then developed it further . Currently, this term is often used in connection with climate models . Scientists suspect that there are tipping points in climate development (e.g. spontaneous, fundamental changes in global heat transport due to altered water or air currents) which cause dramatic climatic changes in a very short time. These tipping elements include the melting of the Greenland ice sheet or a change in the El Niño phenomenon.

In 2000, the book "Tipping Point - How Little Things Can Make a Big Impact " (original title: The tipping point - How Little Things Can Make A Big Difference ) by Malcolm Gladwell was published and made the term popular.

General example

Making popcorn: Put oil in a saucepan a few millimeters high. Then you add a handful of corn kernels and put the pot on the stove and heat the pot. The pot will get warmer, but nothing will happen at first. Only after a few minutes, when the oil has reached a temperature of 163 degrees Celsius, will the first grain of corn pop up. This is because a kernel of corn has a hard and stable shell on the outside and is filled with soft and water-based starch on the inside. The water inside begins to boil and evaporate and pressure is built up until the shell can no longer withstand the pressure and bursts: Little by little, the corn kernels will explode. First a few, then more and more and faster and faster, until the temperature of 169 degrees Celsius is reached. This has to do with the fact that not all maize kernels are the same size, the husks of the maize kernels are not all the same thickness, etc. But in the narrow range of 163 degrees Celsius to 169 degrees Celsius, almost all of them will burst and the process is no longer reversible.

Tipping point guidance

In business, the tipping point phenomenon is viewed as an element of a leadership style . It is assumed that changes in the organization are not based on the transformation of the crowd. Rather, you have to concentrate on individuals or extremes, which have a large asymmetric influence on the so-called performance and thus quickly trigger a "tipping point".

Success factors

Gladwell identified three factors that are responsible for the spread of an epidemic :

The Law of the Few

Not all members of a group have the same influence. Rather, individual members have a disproportionately large influence on bringing about changes.

Stickiness

The presentation of a message has a major influence on whether the addressees can actually be motivated to act. Even small changes can have a big impact. For example, the children's show “ Sesame Street ” flopped in the first pilot tests in the USA, but was then a success. The original concept was only changed with the addition of the Bibo character .

The Power of Context (environmental conditions)

People are very much influenced in their actions by the environmental conditions of the respective situation. In this respect, the spread of epidemics and the success of measures depend on the situation of the addressees. An example of this is the application of the Broken Windows Theory by New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani from 1994 onwards. The New York Police Department concentrated on combating apparent petty crimes, which, however, impaired the quality of life of the residents of New York. Tolerance ”. Giuliani's policies resulted in a significant decrease in crime in New York. It was made clear to the potential criminals in New York that there was “zero tolerance” even for minor violations, and this attitude became a tipping point in New York's crime statistics.

In an interview in ZEIT magazine, Gladwell points to a different theory. People with lead poisoning are therefore disinhibited. “In 1973, lead disappeared from gasoline in the United States. Exactly 18 years later, when those born at the time came to the age at which one would become criminals, the crime rate began to fall steeply in large cities. ”Levitt describes the study by Lott and Whitley, which shows a more plausible alternative explanation by themselves approaches the topic using statistical data from several countries. It can therefore be assumed that a large number of factors contributed to this effect; only the inclusion of all of these in a large-scale study could provide more precise information on causalities.

Examples in business

Both examples describe innovations with a disruptive effect, the appearance of which led to the rapid, almost complete suppression of previously established technologies.

Digital camera replaces analog camera

The transition from the analog camera to the digital camera is known as the tipping point. Within 3 years the market share of digital cameras in sales has increased from 5 to 90 percent. A short time later, sales of analog cameras have dropped to almost zero.

Flat screen replaces tube monitor

The transition from tube monitor to flat screen is known as the tipping point. Within 3 years the market share of flat screens has increased from 5% to 90%. Shortly afterwards, the market share of tube monitors went to zero.

Example in climatology

The earth system has a multitude of interacting feedbacks. As a result, gradual climate change can have serious consequences. These can affect the climate on a regional or global level in the form of abrupt climate changes . In addition, there are also specific tipping elements which, if a “tipping point” is exceeded, can change their state quickly and usually with difficulty, sometimes irreversibly. Although the existence of the tilting elements is almost certain, it is only approximately known when the tipping points of these elements become effective. Research on the melting dynamics of glaciers on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet shows that the tipping point for their melting has been reached there. The mass of the Pine Island Glacier there and other glaciers in the Amundsen Sea area alone would lead to an increase in sea levels of 1.2 m worldwide. At the same time, it is an example of an irreversible point of no return , since the ongoing melting in the coming centuries could probably no longer be stopped even by reduced global warming: the inland glacier lacks an abutment because of the fact that the ice shelf is already floating up, and it is sliding increasingly into the sea, where the temperature is much higher than on land.

literature

  • Malcolm Gladwell: The Tipping Point - How Little Things Can Make A Big Difference (2000) German Der Tipping Point (2002), ISBN 978-3-442-12780-1
  • W. Chan Kim, Renée Mauborgne: The Blue Ocean as a Strategy. How to create new markets where there is no competition. Carl Hanser Verlag, Munich and Vienna 2005, ISBN 3-446-40217-9 , especially chapter 7

See also

swell

  1. ↑ Christoph Bals: Tipping points in the climate system. Interview with Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Germanwatch, 2006, accessed on February 20, 2014 .
  2. ↑ a b c Jürgen Klöckner: Trend researcher expects e-cars to break through soon , November 5, 2013, zeit.de
  3. ↑ a b c Electromobility: Revolution in the automotive industry by Lars Thomsen , lecture by Lars Thomsen at the 26th international "Engine and Environment" conference of AVL List GmbH on September 12, 2013 in Graz, Austria, video on YouTube , published on 11 . October 2013
  4. ^ Gladwell, p. 146
  5. ^ Die Zeit, May 28, 2009, pp. 11-13
  6. ↑ Hans Marquardt, Siegfried G. Schäfer (Ed.): Textbook of Toxicology. Spektrum Akademischer Verlag , Heidelberg 1997. ISBN 3-8274-0271-9 , pp. 513-517
  7. ^ Gladwell interview, p. 13
  8. ↑ Steven Levitt , "Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything," 2005
  9. ↑ TM Lenton, H. .. Held, E. .. Kriegler, JW Hall, W. .. Lucht, S. .. Rahmstorf, HJ Schellnhuber: Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system . In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences . 105, No. 6, February 12, 2008, pp. 1786-1793. ISSN 0027-8424 . doi : 10.1073 / pnas.0705414105 .  
  10. ↑ NASA Jet propulsion laboratory News: The "unstable" West Antarctic Ice sheet: A primer