Energy scenarios for an energy concept of the federal government
In the coalition agreement for the 17th legislative period , the CDU / CSU and FDP agreed to present an energy concept in the course of 2010 that formulates scenario-related guidelines for a clean, reliable and affordable energy supply .
The basis for the energy concept is a reference development as well as four different target scenarios for the future energy supply in Germany, which were developed by the working group Prognos AG , the Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne and the Society for Economic Structural Research (GWS) (p. 1).
The essential assumptions for the scenarios were developed in an ongoing discussion process between the client, the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology (BMWi) and the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMU), and the experts. The ministries commissioned the experts to calculate scenarios for service life extensions of 4, 12, 20 and 28 years for German nuclear power plants . In addition, two data sets were specified for the retrofitting costs of the nuclear power plants. The first sentence is based on a suggestion from the reviewers; a second data set was defined by the BMU and made available to the experts. The four target scenarios were calculated with both retrofit cost rates (p. 1).
Assumptions
The basis of all assumptions is the coalition agreement and the resulting extension of the service life of the nuclear power plants. Whether an extension of the service life makes economic sense was therefore not checked in the energy scenarios. The coalition agreement between the CDU / CSU and FDP only leaves open the duration of the extension of the term (p. 4) and the amount of the retrofitting costs to be estimated.
In all scenarios, greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced by at least 85% by 2050 compared to 1990. The federal government's energy concept specifies that the share of renewable energies in primary energy consumption should be around 50% in 2050 and that primary energy productivity in Germany will increase by 2.1% per year (assuming annual growth of only 0.8 %). In the energy scenarios, an increase in primary energy productivity of 2.49–2.55% per year was specified for the target scenarios and final energy productivity increases by 2.12–2.17% / a for the period from 2008 to 2050 (p. 139).
structure
The scenario calculations differentiate between two types of forecast for future developments in the energy industry.
- The reference scenario represents a development that could occur if the policies applied so far - above all the exit of the red-green federal government from nuclear energy in 2000 - are continued in the future. It is assumed that politics will not stick to the current state of affairs, but that adjustments will also be made in the future, which will continue the trends observed in the past.
- Scenarios I to IV are target scenarios with assumed term extensions of 4, 12, 20 or 28 years, in which targets for the reduction of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions and for the share of renewable energies must be achieved. The target scenarios I to IV were calculated with two different rates of retrofitting costs for the lifetime extension of the nuclear power plants (p. 3).
Measures assumed to achieve the target (electricity)
There is a strong reduction in electricity demand in Germany of 20% to 24% (p. 33) in the target scenarios up to 2050, as well as a slight reduction in electricity demand in Europe (p. 36).
The expansion of renewable energies in Germany and Europe will continue until 2020 through an update of existing funding systems. From 2020, the expansion of renewable energies will be driven forward across Europe in a cost-oriented manner (pp. 37–39).
In order to achieve the target with regard to the power grids , there will be a strong expansion of the European domes, i.e. the connections between the national power grids, by three times by 2050, an expansion of the domestic German high-voltage line networks and the improvement of the communicative networking and control of the networks ("smart grids") ) (Pp. 37-40).
Investment incentives must also be guaranteed. By 2050 there will be both a higher need for reserve capacities with few full load hours and a further development of the market design (p. 37–40).
The last measure that was assumed to achieve the target is social acceptance and ensuring the legal framework for carbon capture and storage technology (CCS) by 2025 (p. 43). “CCS” means the separation of CO 2 from the exhaust gases of fossil power plants and the permanent, container-free storage of this CO 2 in deep underground rock layers .
Results
In all target scenarios, the prescribed reduction target for CO 2 emissions of 85% between 1990 and 2050 will be achieved or slightly exceeded. In the reference scenario, the energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decrease by 34.6% between 1990 and 2020. In 2020, the GHG reduction in the individual scenarios ranges from 39.9% (Scenario IV B) to 44.2% (Scenario II A) compared to 1990. This difference is essentially due to differences in the structure of electricity generation (pp. 5–6).
The primary energy consumption is reduced from 2008 to 2050 in the target scenarios by just over 50%. The share of fossil fuels will be halved by 2050 - depending on the target scenario - to 41% to 43%; Renewable energies then contribute around 50% to covering the primary energy demand . In the reference scenario, consumption will decrease by around 34% by 2050 (pp. 6–7).
The final energy consumption goes into the target scenarios from 2008 to 2050 by about 43% return, the consumption of fossil fuels by 73% to 75%. The use of renewable energies in 2050 is 3.5 times higher than in 2008. In 2050, fossil fuels will cover between 30% and 33% of final energy consumption - depending on the scenario], while electricity accounts for 28% to 30% (p. 7 -8th).
The share of fossil-based electricity generation falls to 19% to 24% in the target scenarios (reference: 46%; shares in the respective gross electricity generation ). Nuclear power plants of different lengths (4, 12, 20 or 28 years) have an impact on the electricity system. Shorter operating times lead to a comparatively higher utilization of the remaining power plant portfolio, a later shutdown of existing power plants as well as earlier power plant construction and more electricity imports (p. 9-10).
The overall economic energy productivity - measured as economic output in relation to the use of primary energy sources (PJ) - increases in the target scenarios between 2.49% p. a. and 2.55% p. a., in the reference only by 1.8% (pp. 10–11).
The use of renewable energies tripled in the target scenarios between 2008 and 2050. In 2050 they will cover around 50% of the primary energy requirement (reference: almost 32%) (p. 11–12).
criticism
The neutrality of the report has been questioned by various media.
Individual evidence
- ↑ a b BMU : Energy Concept of the Federal Government. (PDF; 2.4 MB) (No longer available online.) Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety, September 28, 2010, archived from the original on December 14, 2010 ; Retrieved March 29, 2011 . Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice.
- ^ Coalition agreement for the 17th legislative period. ( Memento of the original from September 18, 2013 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. from: bmi.bund.de , October 28, 2009, accessed on March 29, 2011.
- ↑ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q EWI, GWS, Prognos: Energy scenarios for an energy concept of the federal government. (PDF; 2.4 MB) EWI , Society for Economic Structural Research (GWS), Prognos AG , August 27, 2010, accessed on March 30, 2011 .
- ^ Carbon Capture and Storage. ( Memento of the original from November 4, 2010 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. from: wupperinst.org , accessed March 30, 2011.
- ↑ Nuclear experts receive money from RWE and E.on. on: Zeit online , August 26, 2010, accessed March 30, 2011.
- ↑ Energy report: "Those who are paid by Eon cannot be neutral". on: sueddeutsche.de , August 27, 2010, accessed on March 30, 2011.
