Joint diagnosis

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The joint diagnosis (often short: GD ) is a joint economic analysis and forecast that leading German economic research institutes prepare in spring and autumn of each year under the title The Situation of the World Economy and the German Economy . The client is the federal government , represented by the Federal Ministry of Economics . The first joint forecast was drawn up in 1950 .

Participating institutes

Until 2007

Until spring 2007, the following were involved in the report:

These six institutes are members of the Working Group of German Economic Research Institutes (ARGE). The Hamburg World Economic Archive was closed at the end of 2006.

2007 to 2010

In addition to the dissolved HWWA, the DIW was also eliminated from the new tender : the Federal Government had reservations about the efficiency of the institute due to the departure of experienced employees from the DIW. After the tender by the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology for the period autumn 2007 to spring 2010, the following institutes and working groups are involved in the joint diagnosis (institutes under a common heading each formed a bidding group):

2010 to 2013

When the newly appointed Ministry of Economic Affairs under Brüderle (FDP) called for a new tender, several previously involved institutes were eliminated; for the period from autumn 2010 to spring 2013, the following institutes and working groups are involved in the joint diagnosis (institutes under a common heading each formed a bidding consortium):

From 2013

When the new call for tenders in 2013, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and its consortium partner, the Center for European Economic Research, dropped out of the group of institutes working on the joint diagnosis. Instead, the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) came into play, which after two failed applications (in 2007 and 2010) and a development process in macroeconomic policy advice and forecasting activities together with its consortium partner, the Austrian Institute for Economic Research (WIFO) , came back into play. For the project period 2013 to 2016, the following consortia are involved in the joint diagnosis:

  • German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin),
    • Austrian Institute for Economic Research (WIFO);
  • ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich (ifo),
    • KOF Economic Research Center at ETH Zurich;
  • Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Halle (IWH),
    • Kiel Economics Research & Forecasting GmbH & Co. KG;
  • Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI),
    • Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS), Vienna.
As of 2016

The joint forecast will be drawn up by these bidding consortia from July 2016:

  • German Institute for Economic Research Berlin (DIW) with the Austrian Institute for Economic Research (Vienna)
  • Ifo Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich (Ifo) with the Economic Research Center at the ETH Zurich
  • Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
  • Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Halle (IWH)
  • RWI Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Essen (RWI) with the Institute for Advanced Studies (Vienna).

The IfW and the RWI are appointed to the group of experts for four years. DIW, Ifo and IWH for two years. All five research institutes are part of the Leibniz Research Association.

For participation in the joint diagnosis, four places were originally advertised, two for four years and two for two years. But then five places were awarded. According to the internal ranking of the ministries, the DIW bidding consortium was in fifth place, but DIW President Marcel Fratzscher had good relations with the then Minister of Economic Affairs, Sigmar Gabriel .

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ a b Wolfgang Nierhaus: The joint diagnosis of the economic research institutes . In: Ifo Schnelldienst , ISSN 0018-974X, Volume 55, Number 8, pp. 40-42, hdl : 10419/163774 .
  2. ↑ FTD: DIW threatens to be excluded from the joint diagnosis, June 25, 2007 ( Memento of January 12, 2012 in the Internet Archive )
  3. ↑ Press release of the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology of July 3, 2007 on the replacement of the joint diagnosis ( Memento of July 14, 2007 in the Internet Archive )
  4. ↑ FTD: When everyone thinks the same, June 4, 2010 ( Memento of June 5, 2010 in the Internet Archive )
  5. ↑ Press release of the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology from June 3, 2010 on the replacement of the joint diagnosis ( Memento from June 7, 2010 in the Internet Archive )
  6. ↑ Press release of the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology of June 7, 2013 on the replacement of the joint diagnosis ( Memento of June 12, 2013 in the Internet Archive )
  7. ↑ Press release of the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology of July 26, 2016 on the replacement of the joint diagnosis ( Memento of October 12, 2016 in the Internet Archive )
  8. ↑ Patrick Bernau : Mauschelei in Sigmar Gabriels Ministry. In: FAZ September 21, 2016, accessed on January 9, 2018 .

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