Elections in Madagascar 2018

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The Palais d'Iavoloha, about 15 kilometers south of the capital Antananarivo , is the current seat of government of the president. The building is based on the Rova of Antananarivo

The 2018 presidential elections in Madagascar took place on November 7th and December 19, 2018. The official election campaign began on October 8th. Since no candidate received an absolute majority of the votes in the first ballot, a runoff between the two highest votes was scheduled for December 19, 2018; from this went Andry Rajoelina produced 55.7 percent as the winner.

Around 7.8 million Madagascans were eligible to vote in the presidential elections in December 2013 , and just under 9.9 million in 2018. In 2013, Hery Rajaonarimampianina emerged victorious in the second round of elections and was introduced to the office of President of Madagascar at the end of January 2014 .

With an estimated population in 2017 of around 25 million people, the median age was 19.7 years. According to Aktion Deutschland Hilft - Alliance of German Aid Organizations (ADH), a quarter of those eligible to vote over the age of 18 cannot exercise their right to vote in the 2018 presidential election because they do not have an identity card.

Candidates

A total of 46 people, including seven women, applied for candidacy in Madagascar in 2018. In the end, for various reasons, only 36 people competed, including five women.

Four former Malagasy presidents were among the candidates. In addition to Hery Rajaonarimampianina - the head of state who resigned two months before the election for constitutional reasons, an accountant and tax expert - these were the entrepreneurs Andry Rajoelina , Marc Ravalomanana and Didier Ratsiraka , who is now over 80 and who is said by critics to have a certain closeness to Rajoelina becomes.

According to an assessment by the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung in May 2018, three former Madagascan presidents were among the most promising candidates because they have the necessary financial resources and an intact following. These were Andry Rajoelina, the leader of the so-called “Orange Revolution in Madagascar” from 2009, supported by the MAPAR party (“Miaraka amin'i prezida Andry Rajoelina”, dt. “With President Andry Rajoelina”), Marc Ravalomanana, who until The 2009 coup was head of state, supported by the TIM party ("Tiako I Madagasikara", dt. "I love Madagascar") and Hery Rajaonarimampianina, who resigned shortly before the election for constitutional reasons, supported by the HVM party ("Hery Vaovao ho an ' i Madagasikara ", German" New Forces Madagascar "). According to the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, however, there were no significant ideological or programmatic differences among the most promising top candidates. Rajoelina and Rajaonarimampianina even gave their program plans the same name: "Ascent" (French: émergence). According to commentators, the only differentiator between the three candidates was personality. According to Le Monde , Ravalomanana and Rajoelina are among the wealthiest people in Madagascar. All three former presidents directly or indirectly control media companies and thus had competitive advantages for election campaign spots and TV shows.

  • Candidate No. 12, Hery Rajaonarimampianina, President 2014-2018

  • Candidate No. 13, Andry Rajoelina, President 2009-2014

  • Candidate No. 25, Marc Ravalomanana, President 2002–2009

  • Candidate No. 21, Didier Ratsiraka, President 1975–1993 and 1997–2002

Other candidates with previously high offices were the former Prime Ministers of Madagascar Omer Beriziky (2015-2016) and Jean Ravelonarivo (2011-2014), as well as the former Minister for Economy, Finance and Budget (2002-2007) and Minister for Education and Science ( 2007–2008), Radavidson Andriamparany and Roland Ratsiraka, former Minister for Infrastructure (2014–2016) and Minister for Tourism (2016–2018), nephew of Didier Ratsiraka . Another well-known candidate was the trained sociologist, former MP and successful front man of the Mahaleo group , Zafimahaleo Rasolofondraosolo, known as Dama .

Campaign funding

The largest newspaper in the country, Midi Madagasikara , criticized the rental of eleven helicopters from South Africa on October 10, 2018 , which cost a fortune by Malagasy standards. At least three or four of the 36 favorite candidates were able to use the helicopters for their campaign appearances in different parts of the country during the hot election phase. It was also questioned where the candidates' campaign funds come from. In the absence of specific legislation in this area, the average citizen did not find out who financed the individual candidates and what consideration would be given to the “donor” locally or abroad if their candidate became President of the Republic of Madagascar.

The Malagasy branch of Transparency International assumed that the election campaign took place against the backdrop of money laundering . For this reason, the organization started an awareness-raising initiative and distributed questionnaires to all 36 candidates with the request to answer them by October 31, including direct questions about the candidate's budget: “How much did you personally invest in this pre-campaign / campaign ? ”,“ Have other people besides yourself financed your pre-campaign / campaign? ”Or“ What is the total budget for your campaign? ”This initiative wanted to help the citizens to make their choice better in these presidential elections and promised the answers of candidates to be published one by one. It will also make the job of the Political Financial Control Committee easier, a government agency responsible for examining and funding candidates for this presidential election, according to a Transparency International spokesman.

Starting position

In April 2018 it came in the capital Antananarivo in the context of demonstrations of the extra-parliamentary party TGV ("Tanora malaGasy Vonona", German: "Young determined Madagascans") from Rajoelina, and the opposition parties MAPAR and TIM ("Tiako I Madagasikara", German .: "I love Madagascar"), the latter supports Ravalomanana, riots in which at least two people were killed. The resulting pre-election crisis was only ended by the intervention of the High Constitutional Court, which forced the President Rajaonarimampianina (party: HVM , "Hery Vaovao ho an'ny Madagasikara", German: "New strength for Madagascar") to resign June 2018 a provisional "government of national unity" was set up under Prime Minister Christian Ntsay (non-party). Ntsay was previously a senior UN representative in Madagascar.

The background to the pre-election crisis was the attempt by the previous government to prevent the two most promising candidates, Andry Rajoelina and Marc Ravalomanana, from running through election legislation.

Polls

A professional election survey was carried out for the first time in Madagascar in September 2018. This was carried out on behalf of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation by the opinion research institute ATW and was to be published by the Antananarivo news magazine Politika . However, publication of the results was prohibited by the Malagasy government six weeks before the presidential election on the grounds that it would pose a threat to “public order”. Election Commission President Hery Rakotomanana also expressed concern about opinion polls, saying that they are difficult because of the differing levels of education and political awareness among voters. According to the French magazine Jeune Afrique , Rajoelina is said to have been 25% ahead of its competitors Marc Ravalomanana (17%) and Hery Rajaonarimampianina (4%) in the survey. However, this information is not confirmed.

First round of elections

Preliminary official election result

The provisional official election results were announced on November 17, 2018 at 6 p.m. Since none of the 36 candidates won at least 50% of the votes, the two first-place winners - Andry Rajoelina and Marc Ravalomanana - came to the runoff on December 19, 2018.

candidate Party / supporter be right %
Andry Rajoelina MAPAR, "Miaraka amin'i prezida Andry Rajoelina", German "With President Andry Rajoelina" and supporter of the TGV, "Tanora malaGasy Vonona", German "Young determined Madagascans" 1,949,851 39.19
Marc Ravalomanana TIM, "Tiako I Madagasikara", German "I love Madagascar" 1,755,885 35.29
Hery Rajaonarimampianina HVM, "Hery Vaovao ho an'ny Madagasikara", German "New forces for Madagascar" 439,837 8.84
André Mailhol GFFM, "Gideonafandresena fahantrana eto Madagasikara" 63.205 1.27
Joseph Randriamampionona RMT, Refondation totale de Madagascar 57,654 1.16
Rado Rafalimanana FOMBA, "Front des Organizations Malagasy pour la Bienveillance de l'Avenir" 57,573 1.16
Paul Rabary MIASA 48,898 0.98
Randriamanantsoa Tabera KINTANA 48,555 0.98
Haingo Andrianjakamalala Rasolofonjoa "Avotra ho an'ny firenena" 47,750 0.96
Mamy Richard Radilofe "Roso ho amin'ny Demokrasia Sosialy" 42,663 0.86
Eliana Bezaza PSD, "Parti social-democrate malgache" 42,039 0.85
Jean Ravelonarivo ABA, Antokom-BAhoaka 29,211 0.59
Lalaoarisoa Marcellin Andriantseheno Tafajiaby 28,190 0.57
José Michel Andrianoelison ARO-RIAKA 26,451 0.53
Richard Razafy Rakotofiringa SJIAM, "Solidarité des Jeunes Intellectuels pour l'Avenir de Madagascar" 25,421 0.53
Andriamparany Benjamin Radavidson FFF, "Fahalalahana sy ny Fampandrosoana" 25,392 0.51
Saraha Rabeharisoa PLD, Parti Liberal Démocrate 23,633 0.48
Olivier Mahafaly Solonandrasana "PARRAINAGE" 23,333 0.47
Didier Ratsiraka AREMA, "Andry sy Rihana Enti-Manavotra an'i Madagasikara", German "Association for the rebirth of Madagascar" 22,156 0.45
Roland Ratsiraka MTS, "Malagasy Tonga Saina" 21,410 0.43
Serge Jovial Imbeh "Antoky ny Fivoaran'ny Malagasy" 19,436 0.39
Fanirisoa Ernaivo ZAMA-PATRAM 16,946 0.34
Zafimahaleo Dit Dama Mahaleo Rasolofondraosolo "Manajary Vahoaka" 16,390 0.33
Omer Beriziky "Antsika Madagasikara" 15,300 0.31
Jean Jacques Ratsietison "Manajary Vahoaka" 15,230 0.31
Erick Francis Rajaonary "Malagasy Miray sy Mifankatia" 14,683 0.30
Rivomanantsoa Orlando Robimanana "Madagsikara Vina sy Fanantenana" 14,583 0.29
Arlette Ramaroson "PARRAINAGE" 12,593 0.25
Falimampionona Rasolonjatovo "FITAMBOLAGNELA / IAD" 12.184 0.24
Jean Max Rakotomamomjy "LEADER Fanilo" 11,363 0.23
Rolland Jules Etienne MAFI, "Madagasikara Fivoarana" 10,733 0.22
Bruno Rabarihoela FAIMA, "Fahazavan'i Madagasikara" 9,984 0.20
Roseline Emma Rasolovoahangy EMA, "Ezaka Mampandroso Antsika" 8,573 0.17
Jean Louis Zafivao "Gasy Mifankatia" 6.121 0.12
Stephan Narison AGMM, "Antoko Gasy Miara Mandroso" 5,643 0.11
Solo Norbert Randriamorasata UDECMA-KMTP, UNION DEMOCRATES CHRETIENS DE MADAGASCAR 5,189 0.10
Invalid votes 392.853 7.32
Valid votes 4,975,018 100
Registered voters 9,913,599

Official final result in the first round of elections

The official final result of the first election round was announced on November 28, 2018, with deviations in the number of digits after the decimal point. However, this did not change the determination of the two candidates for the second round. Ultimately, the difference between Rajoelina and Ravalomanana was 193,186 votes.

Second round of voting

The runoff election between the first two winners in the first round - Andry Rajoelina (39.23% in the first round) and Marc Ravalomanana (35.35%) was held on December 19, 2018. Andry Rajoelina won it with a turnout of just over 48%.

Preliminary, not yet official election result

candidate Party / supporter be right % of valid votes % of the votes cast
Andry Rajoelina MAPAR, "Miaraka amin'i prezida Andry Rajoelina", German "With President Andry Rajoelina" and supporter of the TGV, "Tanora malaGasy Vonona", German "Young determined Madagascans" 2,587,035 55.66
Marc Ravalomanana TIM, "Tiako I Madagasikara", German "I love Madagascar" 2,061,051 44.34
Valid votes 4,648,086 100 97.49
Invalid votes 78,465 1.65
Abstentions 41,146 0.86
Votes cast 4,767,697 100
Registered voters 9,913,599

See also

literature

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ Madagascar: Elections - 36 Candidates, 4 (Ex-) Presidents, and a Lot of Money , allafrica.com, Analysis by Emilie Filou, October 2, 2018 (accessed October 20, 2018)
  2. ↑ Dominic Johnson: Young exputschist becomes president , taz.de December 31, 2018 (December 31, 2018)
  3. ↑ SADC election observers should adhere to the code of conduct: Cardoso. Namibia Press Agency , October 29, 2018.
  4. ↑ The World Factbook, Madagascar , CIA, last update September 27, 2018 (accessed October 14, 2018)
  5. ↑ Madagascar - an overview of aktion-deutschland-hilft.de Sources: CIA (The World Factbook), UNHCR, Federal Center for Political Education, Foreign Office, status: 08/2018 (accessed on October 14, 2018)
  6. ^ Presidential election November 7, 2018 , Haut Cour Constitutionnelle (accessed October 14, 2018)
  7. ↑ Hatao antsapaka ny laharan'ny kandidà , newsmada.com from August 23, 2018 (accessed October 14, 2018)
  8. ↑ Décision n ° 26-HCC / D3 du 22 août 2018 arrêtant la liste définitive des candidats au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle du 7 novembre 2018 , hcc.gov.mg from 22 August 2018 (accessed on 14 October 2018)
  9. ↑ Profile Andry Rajoelina , Munzinger Archive (read on October 14, 2018)
  10. ↑ The Political Crisis of March 2009 in Madagascar: A Case Study of Conflict. - The Trigger and Dimensions of the Conflict , by Adrien M. Ratsimbaharison (2017), p. 65 (accessed October 14, 2018)
  11. ↑ Profile Andry Rajoelina , Munzinger Archive (read on October 14, 2018)
  12. ↑ Marcus Schneider: Madagascar in the election year 2018 , FES, May 2018, p. 5 (accessed on October 14, 2018)
  13. ↑ Analysis. A Madagascar, coup d'envoi d'une campagne électorale marquée par le combat des "ex" , lemonde.fr of October 9, 2018 (accessed October 14, 2018)
  14. ↑ Décision n ° 26-HCC / D3 du 22 août 2018 arrêtant la liste définitive des candidats au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle du 7 November 2018 , hcc.gov.mg from 22 August 2018 (accessed on 18 October 2018)
  15. ↑ Dama, le chanteur qui veut bousculer la scène politique malgache , lemonde.fr of August 21, 2018 (accessed on October 14, 2018)
  16. ^ R. Edmond: Campagne électorale: Plus de 15 milliards d'ariary pour les 11 hélicoptères prévus . In: Midi Madagasikara . October 11, 2018 ( midi-madagasikara.mg [accessed October 15, 2018]).
  17. ^ Arena R .: Transparency international doute d'un blanchiment sur fond de campagne . In: Madagascar Tribune . October 13, 2018 ( madagascar-tribune.com [accessed October 15, 2018]).
  18. ↑ Handbook Social Policies of the World Editors: Markus Porsche-Ludwig, Wolfgang Gieler, Jürgen Bellers, 2013, p. 355 (accessed on October 14, 2018)
  19. ↑ Handbook Social Policies of the World Editors: Markus Porsche-Ludwig, Wolfgang Gieler, Jürgen Bellers, 2013, p. 36 (accessed on October 14, 2018)
  20. ↑ Deaths in demonstrations in Madagascar against election laws , dw.com from April 23, 2018
  21. ↑ Resignation in Madagascar - Premier Solonandrasana throws down , dw.de from June 4, 2018 (accessed October 15, 2018)
  22. ↑ Madagascar - 2018 Election , globalsecurity.org, August 16, 2018 (accessed October 17, 2018)
  23. ↑ Madagascar: polémique après l'interdiction d'un sondage sur la présidentielle. Retrieved October 22, 2018 (fr-fr).
  24. ↑ politics. Madagascar Government Bans Opinion Poll Before Presidential Vote , bloomberg.com, September 28, 2018 (accessed October 14, 2018)
  25. ↑ Rija Ramamiarijery: "Le sondage joue un rôle très important dans le jeu de la démocratie" , politika.mg of October 1, 2018 (accessed on October 14, 2018)
  26. ↑ Présidentielle à Madagascar: quels sont les résultats du sondage polémique? - JeuneAfrique.com . In: JeuneAfrique.com . October 1, 2018 ( jeuneafrique.com [accessed October 22, 2018]).
  27. ↑ Aah, Jeune Afrique a eu les résultats du fameux sondage . In: ACTUTANA . ( actutana.com [accessed October 22, 2018]).
  28. ^ Three ex-presidents are the favorites in Madagascar's high-stakes election . In: South China Morning Post . ( scmp.com [accessed November 6, 2018]).
  29. ↑ SONDAGE: Jeune Afrique brave l'embargo . In: La dépêche de Madagascar . October 2, 2018 ( ladepeche-madagascar.com [accessed October 22, 2018]).
  30. ↑ a b c d Décision n ° 26-HCC / D3 du 22 août 2018 arrêtant la liste définitive des candidats au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle du 7 novembre 2018. In: gov.mg. August 22, 2018, accessed November 18, 2018 (French).
  31. ^ A b Presidents à Madagascar: two anciens présidents qualifiés pour le second tour. In: Le Monde. November 17, 2018, accessed November 18, 2018 (French).
  32. ↑ Arrêt n ° 11-HCC / AR du 28 novembre 2018 portant proclamation des résultats officiels du premier tour de l'élection présidentielle du 7 novembre 2018 (accessed on 29 November 2018)
  33. ↑ http://www.midi-madagasikara.mg/a-la-une/2018/11/29/deuxieme-tour-rajoelina-ravalomanana-5000-voix-de-plus-pour-les-deux-finalistes/
  34. ↑ Former President Rajoelina wins election in Madagascar , dw.com from December 27, 2018 (accessed January 3, 2019)
  35. ↑ a b CENI: PUBLICATION DES RÉSULTATS PROVISOIRES DU SECOND TOUR DE L'ÉLECTION DU PRÉSIDENT DE LA RÉPUBLIQUE. In: Agence nationale d'information taratra. December 27, 2018, accessed November 29, 2018 (French).