Great recession

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Economic growth in 2009, in brown countries with recession

The Great Recession is a near global recession that began around 2007 and peaked in 2009. The recession was triggered by various factors, in particular the bursting of a property price bubble (especially in the USA ) and the associated financial crisis from 2007 and the banking crisis , which was later followed by sovereign debt crises such as the Greek sovereign debt crisis . In addition, there were hunger crises in poor countries. The extent to which these partial crises are interrelated is the subject of debate; a direct connection with the global economic crisis cannot be established beyond doubt. The end of the economic crisis can be estimated at around mid-2009 for Germany and at the end of 2013 for the entire euro zone.

In March 2012, at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 2012 conference , the Bank for International Settlements stated in its conclusion that debt cannot be solved with debt. Although that sounds plausible, it is not correct in terms of balance mechanics - since credit-financed expenses enable other debtors to service their credit liabilities ( balance sheet shortening ) - i.e. one debtor replaces another - the BIS statement is in any case (also from the perspective of credit mechanics and the macroeconomic financial accounting ) to put into perspective.

For example, Robert Shiller warned Europe and the US against excessive savings. Similarly, the report by Olivier Blanchard (chief economist of the IMF), published on January 1, 2013 on the IMF's website (WP 13/1), points to a possible savings paradox by admitting that the level of the fiscal multiplier is too low assumed to have massively underestimated the influence of national austerity policies on economic growth. Olli Rehn ( EU currency commissioner ) doubts the correction of the level of the fiscal multiplier or its general ability to determine and is sticking to European austerity programs .

The economist Joseph Stiglitz , who was awarded the Alfred Nobel Memorial Prize for Economics, explains that no major economy ever overcame a crisis through austerity measures and literally: "Austerity measures only make everything worse - they weaken demand, increase unemployment and social costs - and lead into recession. "

The disinflationary tendency that has been noticeable in Germany since the beginning of 2013 in view of the continued negative level of import prices is intended as part of internal devaluation (structural reforms / competitiveness) of EU economic policy (towards the crisis countries). There is also the risk of declining net borrowing (across sectors). European companies have been extremely reluctant to invest since 2012. Despite all the upswing forecasts, the economic momentum weakened even in export-oriented Germany from mid-2014 and deflation (−0.2%) occurred in December 2014 for the first time (and once) since the euro zone was founded.

The robust growth in many countries of the world in 2017/2018, including for the first time since the beginning of the financial crisis in all G-20 countries , led some analysts to believe that a phase of synchronized global growth had occurred ("synchronized global growth ").

overview

Web links

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ Bank for International Settlements: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 2012 conference: Central banking in a balance sheet recession and as PDF, p. 4, Conclusions. Both accessed on January 18, 2013.
  2. ↑ Wolfgang Stützel: Economic balance mechanics. A contribution to monetary theory. (Reprint of the 2nd edition) Tübingen 2011 ( online ) p. 218 f:
    "[...] that without a tendency to accumulate deposits in the economy as a whole, every increase in new loans must lead to an equal increase in the flow of loan repayments [...]"
  3. ^ Wilhelm Lautenbach: About credit and production. Frankfurt 1937. p. 18:
    How does the credit system work when the state finances large expenditures through credit? Where do the funds come from?
    “Most of the people who ask the question, and it is by no means just lay people, think that there is some limited supply of money or credit. This notion is usually linked to the worried question whether the state might not tighten credit for the economy through its credit claims. In truth, however, it is exactly the opposite. When the state takes credit on a large scale, the entire credit economy is loosened up. The money and credit markets are becoming liquid, entrepreneurs are becoming liquid, their bank loans are decreasing, business deposits are increasing [...]. "
  4. ↑ Handelsblatt, November 25, 2012: Economist Shiller warns Europe and the US against excessive savings . Retrieved January 18, 2013.
  5. ↑ IMF, Working Paper 13/1: Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers (PDF, 43 p .; 1.1 MB) Retrieved January 18, 2013.
  6. ↑ Jens Berger, January 10, 2013: IMF and fiscal multiplier: The mistake of the euro rescuers and the silence in the Blätterwalde. Accessed on January 18, 2013
  7. ↑ Washington Post, January 3, 2013: An amazing mea culpa from the IMF's chief economist on austerity.Retrieved January 18, 2013.
  8. ^ Wiener Zeitung, January 9, 2013: Influence of national austerity policies on economic growth underestimated. IMF miscalculated dramatically . Retrieved January 18, 2013.
  9. ↑ Reuters, January 11, 2013: Budget cuts must go on, EU's Rehn says . Retrieved January 18, 2013.
  10. ↑ Manager Magazin, October 1, 2012: Stiglitz: A walk on the edge of the abyss.Retrieved on February 2, 2013.
  11. ↑ Federal Statistical Office: Import & Export Price Index
  12. ↑ See Oesterreichische Nationalbank: Credit Report December 2013 ( Memento from January 6, 2014 in the Internet Archive ) (PDF) - see: MFI loans to non-financial companies in the euro area: p. 4.
  13. ↑ Süddeutsche, July 2, 2014: Economic crisis: Europe lacks investments of 200 billion euros .
  14. ^ Deutsche Bundesbank, July 21, 2014: Economic momentum in Germany is slowing
  15. ↑ Enda Curran, Alessandro Speciale: Global Growth Hasn't Looked This Synchronized Since 2010. In: Bloomberg.com , March 2, 2017; Frank Holmes: Synchronized Global Growth May Have Arrived. In: Forbes.com , November 20, 2017.