Population development in the German federal states

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The population development in the German federal states is shown using data from GENESIS , the joint database of the state statistical offices and the Federal Statistical Office.

The map shows the federal states according to their population in 1995 . Red: 0–2 million, dark blue: 2–3 million, light blue: 3–4 million, dark green: 4–5 million, light green: 5–10 million, yellow: 10–18 million

Population development 1995–2015

The population development varied in the 16 federal states: in four of the five new federal states the population is shrinking continuously, while in Brandenburg the population initially grew until the year 2000. In Berlin, the trend was the opposite, while initially the population began to decline, and in 2000, population growth began.

The populations also developed differently in the old federal states. In Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria, Hamburg, Hesse and Schleswig-Holstein the population increased continuously. In the Saarland, however, the population fell steadily. The population of North Rhine-Westphalia (until 2004), Lower Saxony and Rhineland-Palatinate (both until 2003) first rose and then fell again. The population of Bremen fell until 2001, then increased until 2007 and began to decrease again in 2008.

Between 2000 and 2005, four federal states changed places: Schleswig-Holstein overtook Saxony-Anhalt and Hamburg Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.

The respective highs (in the observation period 1995–2015) are in bold, the lows in italics.

state Rank 1995 Rank 2000 Rank 2005 Rank 2010 Rank 2015 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
North Rhine-Westphalia 1 1 1 1 1 17 893 045 18 009 865 18 058 105 17 845 145 17 865 516
Bavaria 2 2 2 2 2 11 993 484 12 230 255 12 468 726 12 538 696 12 843 514
Baden-Württemberg 3 3 3 3 3 10 319 367 10 524 415 10 735 701 10 753 880 10 879 618
Lower Saxony 4th 4th 4th 4th 4th 7 780 422 7 926 193 7 993 946 7 918 293 7,926,599
Hesse 5 5 5 5 5 5,922,369 6 009 913 6 068 129 6 067 021 6 176 172
Saxony 6th 6th 6th 6th 6th 4,566,403 4,425,581 4,273,754 4,149,477 4,084,851
Rhineland-Palatinate 7th 7th 7th 7th 7th 3 977 919 4,034,557 4,058,843 4 003 745 4,052 803
Berlin 8th 8th 8th 8th 8th 3,471,418 3 382 169 3 395 189 3,460,725 3 520 031
Schleswig-Holstein 10 10 9 9 9 2,679,575 2,725,461 2,789,761 2,834,259 2,858,714
Brandenburg 12 11 11 10 10 2,542 042 2 601 962 2,559,483 2,503,273 2,484,826
Saxony-Anhalt 9 9 10 11 11 2,796,981 2,738,928 2,615,375 2,335,006 2,245,470
Thuringia 11 12 12 12 12 2,545,808 2,503,785 2,431,255 2 235 025 2 170 714
Hamburg 14th 14th 13 13 13 1 707 901 1 715 392 1 743 627 1,786,448 1,787,408
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania 13 13 14th 14th 14th 1 823 084 1 775 703 1 707 266 1,642,327 1 612 362
Saarland 15th 15th 15th 15th 15th 1 084 370 1,068,703 1 050 293 1,017,625 995 597
Bremen 16 16 16 16 16 679 757 660 255 663 467 660 706 671 489

Population forecast 2015–2060

The map shows the federal states according to their population in 2030 . Red: 0–2 million, dark blue: 2–3 million, light blue: 3–4 million, dark green: 4–5 million, light green: 5–10 million, yellow: 10–17 million
The map shows the federal states according to their population in 2060 . Red: 0–2 million, dark blue: 2–3 million, light blue: 3–4 million, dark green: 4–5 million, light green: 5–10 million, yellow: 10–17 million

Lower limit

In this variant, a relatively high population decrease or a low population increase is assumed.

According to the prognosis of the German statistical offices, 13 out of 16 federal states will have a steadily decreasing population by 2015 at the latest. The Bavarian population will grow until 2021, the Hamburg population until 2027 and the Berlin population until 2030, before these populations also shrink.

However, there will be a shift because the populations of the federal states are shrinking at different speeds. In the period from 2020 to 2030, Rhineland-Palatinate will replace Saxony as the sixth most populous state. In the period 2030–2040 Hamburg will overtake Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt, and in the period 2050–2060 Brandenburg will also be overtaken by the Hanseatic city.

Rank 2020 state Rank 2030 Rank 2040 Rank 2050 Rank 2060 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
1 North Rhine-Westphalia 1 1 1 1 17 539 16 936 16 213 15 325 14 371
2 Bavaria 2 2 2 2 12 991 12,933 12 595 12 054 11 430
3 Baden-Württemberg 3 3 3 3 10 887 10 776 10 504 10 089 9 602
4th Lower Saxony 4th 4th 4th 4th 7 775 7 498 7 128 6 685 6 222
5 Hesse 5 5 5 5 6 154 6 030 5 837 5 581 5 288
6th Saxony 7th 8th 8th 8th 3,991 3 782 3,541 3 303 3,078
7th Rhineland-Palatinate 6th 7th 7th 7th 3,978 3 829 3 636 3 399 3 158
8th Berlin 8th 6th 6th 6th 3 652 3 711 3 691 3 634 3,542
9 Schleswig-Holstein 9 9 9 9 2,837 2,769 2 626 2,445 2 252
10 Brandenburg 10 10 10 11 2 430 2,321 2 138 1 930 1 731
11 Saxony-Anhalt 11 12 13 13 2 124 1 917 1 728 1 552 1 394
12 Thuringia 12 11 12 12 2,082 1 916 1 752 1,597 1 456
13 Hamburg 13 13 11 10 1 827 1 840 1 833 1 804 1,747
14th Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania 14th 14th 14th 14th 1 553 1 444 1 324 1 197 1 081
15th Saarland 15th 15th 15th 15th 961 895 828 755 687
16 Bremen 16 16 16 16 665 643 622 599 571

Upper limit

The map shows the federal states according to their population in 2030 . Red: 0–2 million, dark blue: 2–3 million, light blue: 3–4 million, dark green: 4–5 million, light green: 5–10 million, yellow: 10–17 million
The map shows the federal states according to their population in 2060 . Red: 0–2 million, dark blue: 2–3 million, light blue: 3–4 million, dark green: 4–5 million, light green: 5–10 million, yellow: 10–17 million

In this variant, a relatively high increase or a small decrease in the population is assumed.

According to the forecast of the statistical offices, twelve of the 16 countries will have a steadily shrinking population after 2020. In Baden-Wuerttemberg, Berlin, Bavaria and Hamburg, the population will continue to grow, only to decline “belatedly”.

There will be some changes in the ranking: In the period 2020–2030, Thuringia will overtake Saxony-Anhalt, in the following decade Berlin, Rhineland-Palatinate and Saxony will overtake, and Hamburg will overtake Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt. In the period 2050–2060, Hamburg will also overtake Brandenburg, making it the tenth most populous federal state.

Rank 2020 state Rank 2030 Rank 2040 Rank 2050 Rank 2060 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
1 North Rhine-Westphalia 1 1 1 1 17 640 17 264 16 784 16 142 15 438
2 Bavaria 2 2 2 2 13 092 13 259 13 164 12 870 12 500
3 Baden-Württemberg 3 3 3 3 10 968 11 037 10 962 10 748 10 467
4th Lower Saxony 4th 4th 4th 4th 7 818 7 639 7 375 7 038 6 683
5 Hesse 5 5 5 5 6 201 6 181 6 100 5,960 5 786
6th Saxony 7th 8th 8th 8th 4 006 3 883 3 628 3 427 3 239
7th Rhineland-Palatinate 6th 7th 7th 7th 4 001 3 905 3 769 3,589 3 406
8th Berlin 8th 6th 6th 6th 3 689 3 827 3 893 3,928 3,929
9 Schleswig-Holstein 9 9 9 9 2,850 2,815 2 707 2,558 2,399
10 Brandenburg 10 10 10 11 2,439 2,354 2 195 2 008 1 831
11 Saxony-Anhalt 12 13 13 13 2 132 1 941 1,770 1 611 1 472
12 Thuringia 11 12 12 12 2 091 1 943 1,799 1 664 1 543
13 Hamburg 13 11 11 10 1 840 1 883 1 909 1 913 1,890
14th Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania 14th 14th 14th 14th 1 560 1 466 1 362 1 250 1 151
15th Saarland 15th 15th 15th 15th 967 912 858 798 743
16 Bremen 16 16 16 16 670 660 652 643 629

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