Population development in the German federal states
The population development in the German federal states is shown using data from GENESIS , the joint database of the state statistical offices and the Federal Statistical Office.
Population development 1995–2015
The population development varied in the 16 federal states: in four of the five new federal states the population is shrinking continuously, while in Brandenburg the population initially grew until the year 2000. In Berlin, the trend was the opposite, while initially the population began to decline, and in 2000, population growth began.
The populations also developed differently in the old federal states. In Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria, Hamburg, Hesse and Schleswig-Holstein the population increased continuously. In the Saarland, however, the population fell steadily. The population of North Rhine-Westphalia (until 2004), Lower Saxony and Rhineland-Palatinate (both until 2003) first rose and then fell again. The population of Bremen fell until 2001, then increased until 2007 and began to decrease again in 2008.
Between 2000 and 2005, four federal states changed places: Schleswig-Holstein overtook Saxony-Anhalt and Hamburg Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
The respective highs (in the observation period 1995–2015) are in bold, the lows in italics.
state | Rank 1995 | Rank 2000 | Rank 2005 | Rank 2010 | Rank 2015 | 1995 | 2000 | 2005 | 2010 | 2015 |
North Rhine-Westphalia | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 17 893 045 | 18 009 865 | 18 058 105 | 17 845 145 | 17 865 516 |
Bavaria | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 993 484 | 12 230 255 | 12 468 726 | 12 538 696 | 12 843 514 |
Baden-Württemberg | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 319 367 | 10 524 415 | 10 735 701 | 10 753 880 | 10 879 618 |
Lower Saxony | 4th | 4th | 4th | 4th | 4th | 7 780 422 | 7 926 193 | 7 993 946 | 7 918 293 | 7,926,599 |
Hesse | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5,922,369 | 6 009 913 | 6 068 129 | 6 067 021 | 6 176 172 |
Saxony | 6th | 6th | 6th | 6th | 6th | 4,566,403 | 4,425,581 | 4,273,754 | 4,149,477 | 4,084,851 |
Rhineland-Palatinate | 7th | 7th | 7th | 7th | 7th | 3 977 919 | 4,034,557 | 4,058,843 | 4 003 745 | 4,052 803 |
Berlin | 8th | 8th | 8th | 8th | 8th | 3,471,418 | 3 382 169 | 3 395 189 | 3,460,725 | 3 520 031 |
Schleswig-Holstein | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 2,679,575 | 2,725,461 | 2,789,761 | 2,834,259 | 2,858,714 |
Brandenburg | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 2,542 042 | 2 601 962 | 2,559,483 | 2,503,273 | 2,484,826 |
Saxony-Anhalt | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 2,796,981 | 2,738,928 | 2,615,375 | 2,335,006 | 2,245,470 |
Thuringia | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 2,545,808 | 2,503,785 | 2,431,255 | 2 235 025 | 2 170 714 |
Hamburg | 14th | 14th | 13 | 13 | 13 | 1 707 901 | 1 715 392 | 1 743 627 | 1,786,448 | 1,787,408 |
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania | 13 | 13 | 14th | 14th | 14th | 1 823 084 | 1 775 703 | 1 707 266 | 1,642,327 | 1 612 362 |
Saarland | 15th | 15th | 15th | 15th | 15th | 1 084 370 | 1,068,703 | 1 050 293 | 1,017,625 | 995 597 |
Bremen | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 679 757 | 660 255 | 663 467 | 660 706 | 671 489 |
Population forecast 2015–2060
Lower limit
In this variant, a relatively high population decrease or a low population increase is assumed.
According to the prognosis of the German statistical offices, 13 out of 16 federal states will have a steadily decreasing population by 2015 at the latest. The Bavarian population will grow until 2021, the Hamburg population until 2027 and the Berlin population until 2030, before these populations also shrink.
However, there will be a shift because the populations of the federal states are shrinking at different speeds. In the period from 2020 to 2030, Rhineland-Palatinate will replace Saxony as the sixth most populous state. In the period 2030–2040 Hamburg will overtake Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt, and in the period 2050–2060 Brandenburg will also be overtaken by the Hanseatic city.
Rank 2020 | state | Rank 2030 | Rank 2040 | Rank 2050 | Rank 2060 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | 2060 |
1 | North Rhine-Westphalia | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 17 539 | 16 936 | 16 213 | 15 325 | 14 371 |
2 | Bavaria | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 991 | 12,933 | 12 595 | 12 054 | 11 430 |
3 | Baden-Württemberg | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 887 | 10 776 | 10 504 | 10 089 | 9 602 |
4th | Lower Saxony | 4th | 4th | 4th | 4th | 7 775 | 7 498 | 7 128 | 6 685 | 6 222 |
5 | Hesse | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 154 | 6 030 | 5 837 | 5 581 | 5 288 |
6th | Saxony | 7th | 8th | 8th | 8th | 3,991 | 3 782 | 3,541 | 3 303 | 3,078 |
7th | Rhineland-Palatinate | 6th | 7th | 7th | 7th | 3,978 | 3 829 | 3 636 | 3 399 | 3 158 |
8th | Berlin | 8th | 6th | 6th | 6th | 3 652 | 3 711 | 3 691 | 3 634 | 3,542 |
9 | Schleswig-Holstein | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 2,837 | 2,769 | 2 626 | 2,445 | 2 252 |
10 | Brandenburg | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 2 430 | 2,321 | 2 138 | 1 930 | 1 731 |
11 | Saxony-Anhalt | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 2 124 | 1 917 | 1 728 | 1 552 | 1 394 |
12 | Thuringia | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 2,082 | 1 916 | 1 752 | 1,597 | 1 456 |
13 | Hamburg | 13 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 1 827 | 1 840 | 1 833 | 1 804 | 1,747 |
14th | Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania | 14th | 14th | 14th | 14th | 1 553 | 1 444 | 1 324 | 1 197 | 1 081 |
15th | Saarland | 15th | 15th | 15th | 15th | 961 | 895 | 828 | 755 | 687 |
16 | Bremen | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 665 | 643 | 622 | 599 | 571 |
Upper limit
In this variant, a relatively high increase or a small decrease in the population is assumed.
According to the forecast of the statistical offices, twelve of the 16 countries will have a steadily shrinking population after 2020. In Baden-Wuerttemberg, Berlin, Bavaria and Hamburg, the population will continue to grow, only to decline “belatedly”.
There will be some changes in the ranking: In the period 2020–2030, Thuringia will overtake Saxony-Anhalt, in the following decade Berlin, Rhineland-Palatinate and Saxony will overtake, and Hamburg will overtake Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt. In the period 2050–2060, Hamburg will also overtake Brandenburg, making it the tenth most populous federal state.
Rank 2020 | state | Rank 2030 | Rank 2040 | Rank 2050 | Rank 2060 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | 2060 |
1 | North Rhine-Westphalia | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 17 640 | 17 264 | 16 784 | 16 142 | 15 438 |
2 | Bavaria | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 092 | 13 259 | 13 164 | 12 870 | 12 500 |
3 | Baden-Württemberg | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 968 | 11 037 | 10 962 | 10 748 | 10 467 |
4th | Lower Saxony | 4th | 4th | 4th | 4th | 7 818 | 7 639 | 7 375 | 7 038 | 6 683 |
5 | Hesse | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 201 | 6 181 | 6 100 | 5,960 | 5 786 |
6th | Saxony | 7th | 8th | 8th | 8th | 4 006 | 3 883 | 3 628 | 3 427 | 3 239 |
7th | Rhineland-Palatinate | 6th | 7th | 7th | 7th | 4 001 | 3 905 | 3 769 | 3,589 | 3 406 |
8th | Berlin | 8th | 6th | 6th | 6th | 3 689 | 3 827 | 3 893 | 3,928 | 3,929 |
9 | Schleswig-Holstein | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 2,850 | 2,815 | 2 707 | 2,558 | 2,399 |
10 | Brandenburg | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 2,439 | 2,354 | 2 195 | 2 008 | 1 831 |
11 | Saxony-Anhalt | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 2 132 | 1 941 | 1,770 | 1 611 | 1 472 |
12 | Thuringia | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 2 091 | 1 943 | 1,799 | 1 664 | 1 543 |
13 | Hamburg | 13 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 1 840 | 1 883 | 1 909 | 1 913 | 1,890 |
14th | Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania | 14th | 14th | 14th | 14th | 1 560 | 1 466 | 1 362 | 1 250 | 1 151 |
15th | Saarland | 15th | 15th | 15th | 15th | 967 | 912 | 858 | 798 | 743 |
16 | Bremen | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 670 | 660 | 652 | 643 | 629 |