International Energy Agency

from Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
International Energy Agency
- IEA -p1
Consist since November 15, 1974
Headquarters Paris , FranceFranceFrance 
Executive Director TurkeyTurkey Fatih Birol

The International Energy Agency ( english International Energy Agency , IEA) is a cooperation platform in the field of research, development, launch and application of energy technologies . The agency also has strategic oil reserves with which it can intervene in the oil market .

It was founded by 16 industrial nations to take joint action against the oil crisis of that time . On November 15, 1974, the International Energy Agency was established as an autonomous unit of the OECD with headquarters in Paris . It is traditionally considered to be atom-friendly. Important publications of the IEA include the annual “Key Energy Statistics” and the “ World Energy Outlook ”, the “Bible of the Energy Industry”. The former chief economist Fatih Birol has been the Executive Director of the IEA since September 2015.

Essential positions

Since 2007, the IEA has repeatedly warned of increasingly clearer scarcity trends on the international oil markets. In view of increasing demand and decreasing production volumes, there is a risk of an imminent oil shortage - a scenario that has long been expected by supporters of the peak oil theory in particular . The IEA points out that global oil production capacities are falling and oil reserves are likely to be greatly reduced. In the future, almost half of the demand would have to be covered by newly developed oil fields, because existing reserves are gradually drying up. The stronger global oil demand will be in an upswing - especially in the US, China and India - the sooner the bottleneck could occur and slow global economic growth. Everything points to a “supply crisis”, which could cause prices to rise to “record levels”. An oil price of up to $ 200 per barrel is possible. The OPEC therefore recommended u. a. stronger oil production by OPEC and more energy efficiency .

At an energy conference in London at the end of October 2007, the then IEA Director Nubuo Tanaka was very concerned about future oil supply security: “Despite five years of high oil prices, market tightness will actually increase from 2009. New capacity additions will not keep up With declines at current fields and the projected increase in demand “ (Despite the five years of high oil prices, the market shortage [of oil] will actually increase from 2009 onwards. New reserves will be replenished with the decline in production in the currently exploited oil fields and with the expected Rise in demand does not keep pace).

In its World Energy Outlook 2008 , the IEA described conventional energy sources such as oil and coal for the first time as "clearly not sustainable" from an ecological, economic and social point of view. “This requires nothing less than an energy revolution”. For the first time, the IEA warned of “catastrophic, irreversible damage to the global climate”. As the decline in oil production accelerates with a simultaneous increase in consumption of 45 percent, bottlenecks in oil are likely. "Which oil wells will be used to meet the growing demand, how much it will cost to extract this oil and how much consumers will have to pay for it, is extremely uncertain, possibly more uncertain than ever."

In the World Energy Outlook 2013 , the IEA recommended greater efforts to improve energy efficiency. A prerequisite for greater energy efficiency is to abolish global subsidies for fossil fuels, which amounted to 544 billion US dollars in 2012, while renewable energies were supported with 100 billion dollars.

In the World Energy Outlook 2014 , the IEA once again urged stronger measures for energy efficiency and security of supply and presented scenarios for the first time up to the year 2040. The world energy demand will increase by 37% by 2040, which will put pressure on the energy supply. Coal and oil would grow by then and then level off at consumption levels. Renewable energies would increase rapidly, due to sharply falling costs and government subsidies, and replace coal as the most important energy source. Half of the additional demand would be covered by renewables. Renewables, oil, natural gas and coal would each represent a quarter of global primary energy consumption in 2040.

In the World Energy Investment Outlook 2014 , the IEA reports that around 1.6 trillion dollars were invested worldwide in the energy sector in 2013, of which more than 1 trillion was for fossil fuels and 250 billion for renewable energy . Due to the focus on fossil energies, the world is heading for a global warming of four degrees. In order to achieve the two-degree target , however, no major additional financial expenditure is necessary. “The money just has to be spent differently.” Overall, the IEA assumes that 48 trillion US dollars would have to be invested worldwide over the next 20 years to maintain security of supply. According to her, annual investments would rise to two trillion. For renewable energies, the IEA calls for global investments of $ 5.8 trillion by 2035.

In the World Energy Outlook Special Report 2015 , the IEA called for an ambitious UN climate protection agreement ahead of the UN climate conference in Paris 2015 , according to which global greenhouse gas emissions should peak in 2020. Subsidies for fossil fuels should be ended and investments in renewable energies should be increased significantly.

Member States

Member States

The Member States are (in alphabetical order):

  1. AustraliaAustralia Australia
  2. BelgiumBelgium Belgium
  3. DenmarkDenmark Denmark
  4. GermanyGermany Germany
  5. EstoniaEstonia Estonia
  6. FinlandFinland Finland
  7. FranceFrance France
  8. GreeceGreece Greece
  9. United KingdomUnited Kingdom United Kingdom
  10. IrelandIreland Ireland
  11. ItalyItaly Italy
  12. JapanJapan Japan
  13. CanadaCanada Canada
  14. LuxembourgLuxembourg Luxembourg
  15. MexicoMexico Mexico
  16. NetherlandsNetherlands Netherlands
  17. New ZealandNew Zealand New Zealand
  18. NorwayNorway Norway
  19. AustriaAustria Austria
  20. PolandPoland Poland
  21. PortugalPortugal Portugal
  22. SpainSpain Spain
  23. SwedenSweden Sweden
  24. SwitzerlandSwitzerland Switzerland
  25. SlovakiaSlovakia Slovakia
  26. Korea SouthSouth Korea South Korea
  27. Czech RepublicCzech Republic Czech Republic
  28. TurkeyTurkey Turkey
  29. HungaryHungary Hungary
  30. United StatesUnited States United States

Judgment on the German energy policy

In its 2013 country report, the IEA judges German energy policy that the Renewable Energy Sources Act " has proven to be a very effective instrument for the dissemination of renewable energies and, in particular, electricity generation through biomass, wind energy and photovoltaics. It has also proven to be successful in reducing costs, as shown in particular by the lowering of the feed-in tariffs for solar power, which has come about in response to the rapid expansion of this technology over the past four years. "

In addition, the report notes:

"Germany must [...] continue to develop cost-efficient, market-oriented concepts in order to accompany the expected expansion of supply-dependent renewable energies. In addition, costs and benefits must be distributed fairly and transparently to all market participants, paying special attention to private households. In future, the expansion of renewable energies must take place in parallel with the timely expansion of the transmission and distribution networks. A stable regulatory framework is also required in order to guarantee long-term financing options for network operators. In addition, it is important to continue to monitor Germany's capacity to cover peak load requirements in the medium term. "


Actual development of the installed photovoltaic capacity ( GW p ) compared with the IEA forecasts 2002–2016

The IEA has been criticized several times by scientists and associations for its drastic false prognoses on the growth potential and costs of renewable energies in the annual World Energy Outlook reports. In particular, she repeatedly underestimated the actual photovoltaic expansion by far. For example, the energy economist Konrad Mertens wrote that the IEA was “more oriented towards fossil fuels” and that photovoltaics “only ever expected the growth in the future that had already occurred”. In 2004, the IEA forecast a PV output of 80 GW for 2030; this value was reached in 2012. In 2008, they expected 200 GW of PV output in 2030, but in 2017 the real value was already over 400 GW. In 2017 she also forecast that the prices of large photovoltaic systems would drop to $ 1,000 / watt peak by 2030. This prediction has even been overtaken by reality after just one year.

For example, in the World Energy Outlook 2015, a break in the market growth of photovoltaics was assumed; According to this forecast, future additions will fall below the 2013 rate. In fact, the expansion increased dramatically.

A study published in 2015 by the Energy Watch Group and the TU Lappeenranta came to the conclusion that the IEA regularly underestimated the growth of photovoltaics and wind energy between 1994 and 2014. According to the study, the projections for photovoltaics published by the IEA in 2010 for 2024 were already achieved in January 2015 (180 GW), which exceeds the IEA forecast for 2015 by a factor of three. The wind capacities of 2010 exceeded the projections made in 2002 by 260% and the forecasts from 2005 by 104%. The IEA forecasts for wind power for the year 2030 were thus achieved 20 years earlier. Similarly, the IEA has regularly overestimated the importance of coal, oil and nuclear power. Despite a decline in nuclear power, the IEA continues to expect annual growth of around 10 GW in the coming decade.

In response to the dynamic expansion of renewable energies worldwide, which significantly exceeded forecasts, the IEA corrected its forecasts somewhat in 2016. In 2017, too, the IEA estimated the addition of photovoltaics to be lower than the real values ​​achieved and predicts falling expansion values ​​for the long-term future. In the World Energy Outlook published in 2018, the IEA also forecast a continuous decline in global photovoltaic expansion in its base scenario until 2035.

See also

Web links

Individual evidence

  1. ^ "OPEC - Dispute over strategic oil reserves" Handelsblatt June 27, 2011.
  2. "IEA makes 60 million barrels of oil available to market to offset Libyan disruption" ( Memento of the original from June 26, 2011 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. IAE press release of June 23, 2011 @1@ 2Template: Webachiv / IABot /
  3. Katrin Forgó: The International Energy Agency, basics and current questions , queried on November 15, 2009
  4. Welt Online: International Energy Agency against nuclear phase-out June 24, 2007
  5. Süddeutsche Zeitung, interview
  6. a b taz: IEA is becoming greener. Oil lobby calls for energy revolution
  7. Die Zeit No. 47/2008
  8. ^ IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol is named Agency's next Executive Director. In: Retrieved October 15, 2016 .
  9. ^ Süddeutsche Zeitung: The next oil crisis is coming May 17th, 2010
  10. SPIEGEL Online: Price explosion: Energy agency sounds the alarm - new oil crisis in five years 10 July 2010
  12. World Energy Outlook , short version, German translation
  13. IEA: Signs of stress must not be ignored, IEA warns in its new World Energy Outlook, Press Release, 20 Nov 2014
  14. Die Welt: The world's energy security is not guaranteed. 3rd June 2014
  15. ^ IEA: IEA sets out pillars for success at COP21
  16. ^ IEA: Energy Policy of the IEA Countries - Germany. 2013 ( Memento of the original from September 14, 2013 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. (PDF; 724 kB) @1@ 2Template: Webachiv / IABot /
  17. ^ A b Auke Hoekstra et al .: Creating Agent-Based Energy Transition Management Models That Can Uncover Profitable Pathways to Climate Change Mitigation . In: Complexity . 2017, doi : 10.1155 / 2017/1967645 .
  18. Felix Creutzig et al .: The underestimated potential of solar energy to mitigate climate change . In: Nature Energy . tape 2 , 2017, doi : 10.1038 / nenergy.2017.140 (English).
  19. Konrad Mertens: Photovoltaics: textbook on basics, technology and practice . 4th edition, Munich p. 340.
  20. Energy Watch Group releases PV graphics to again highlight IEA's unrealistic renewable scenarios , PV Magazine, Nov 2015 ; Energy Watch Group: IEA creates irrational scenarios for the future development of solar power generation in the WEO 2015. Nov 2015
  21. a b Solar energy - eleven years of ignorance at a glance . In: Manager-Magazin , November 17, 2017. Retrieved February 17, 2018.
  22. ^ The projections for the future and quality in the past of the World Energy Outlook for solar PV and other renewable energy technologies. Matthieu Metayer, Christian Breyer, Hans-Josef Fell ( Memento of the original from September 28, 2015 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. @1@ 2Template: Webachiv / IABot /
  23. Bloomberg, Two Charts That Show How Renewable Energy Has Blown Away Expectations, Oct 15, 2016
  24. ^ IEA versus the reality of solar PV . In: PV-Magazine , November 20, 2018. Retrieved November 23, 2018.