John Graunt

Bills of Mortality , 1676

Cover page of Graunt's work Natural and Political Observations Made upon the Bills of Mortality (1662).

John Graunt (* April 24, 1620 in London ; † April 18, 1674 ibid) made a significant contribution to the systematic data acquisition and analysis and is considered an important pioneer of modern statistics .

Live and act

Graunt was one of the founders of demography , despite being a haberdashery seller . Together with William Petty , he developed early statistical and census methods that form the basis of modern demography. Graunt calculated the first mortality table in 1662 and thus for the first time gave survival probabilities for every age. He is also seen as one of the first experts in the field of epidemiology as his famous work was primarily concerned with health statistics.

In his book Natural and Political Observations Made upon the Bills of Mortality (1662) he analyzed the death registers in London. The basis was the attempt by the King of England, Charles II and other official bodies to install a warning system for the occurrence and spread of the plague in London . Although this was never satisfactory, Graunt's work led to the first statistically based estimate of the population of London.

He presented his work to the Royal Society , which then accepted him as a member in 1662. Originally, the members of the Royal Society did not want him to be a member because he was just a haberdashery seller. It was only under pressure from the king that they overcame their concerns and elected him.

After admission to the Royal Society, Graunt converted to Catholicism , although during this period the pressure on Catholics increased. As a result, he was also charged with being involved in the Great Fire of London . As a result of the charges, he lost his job with a water company. Without further financial support, Graunt became impoverished and died of jaundice and liver disease at the age of 53 .

literature

• Craig Turnbull: A History of British Actuarial Thought, Palgrave Macmillan 2017

Works

• Natural and Political Observations mentioned in a following Index, and made upon the Bills of Mortality , 1665 ( digitized ( Memento from June 11, 2007 in the Internet Archive )) (German natural and political notes on the death lists of the City of London 1702)

Web links

• John Graunt (1620–1674) , Text of the Observations and other works by Graunt from Western Washington University .
• Entry to Graunt; John (1620-1674) in the Archives of the Royal Society , London