Matthias Jung (election researcher)

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Matthias Jung in the ZDF studio for the 2013 federal election

Matthias Jung (* 1956 in Speyer ) is a German election researcher . Since 1991 he has been a board member of the polling institute Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (FGW) and, since 1994, managing partner of FGW Telefonfeld GmbH , which carries out surveys for the FGW . Jung coined the term “ asymmetrical demobilization ” for the strategy on which the Bundestag election campaigns of the CDU / CSU had been based since 2009 .

Life

Jung graduated from high school in 1975 and did military service in 1975/76 . From 1976 to 1983 he studied economics , political science and mathematics at the University of Mannheim and became a graduate economist . During his studies he was a member of the conservative university group Demokrats '70 and chairman of the AStA . From 1983 to 1987 he was a research assistant at the University of Mannheim. Since 1987 he has been working for the Wahlen research group in Mannheim, which Wolfgang Gibowski co-founded and is affiliated with the CDU . In 1990 he became head of the GDR / New Lander office of the Wahlen research group in Berlin . Since 1991 he has been a member of the board of the Wahlen research group and managing partner of the Institute for Practice-Oriented Social Research (IPOS) and, since 1994, managing partner of FGW Telefonfeld GmbH .

Jung presents election analyzes primarily on ZDF . He publishes on election research, survey research methods, and military sociology . Since 2000, Jung also acted as a demoscopic advisor to CDU chairwoman Angela Merkel . In the press, Jung was dubbed “Merkel's demoskop” or “Chancellor whisperer”.

Plant and positions

In September 2009, in an interview with the Börsen-Zeitung , Jung accused German politicians of not having adequately informed the population about the risks of the financial crisis . He reported on "failures in crisis communication" and a lack of education of the population about the importance of the banking sector for a functioning economy and the protection of assets .

In connection with the 2009 federal election , Jung coined the term “ asymmetrical demobilization ”. This describes the strategy of the CDU, in this election as well as in the federal elections in 2013 and 2017, to position itself in the political center and to avoid topics that offer a target for political opponents. This was intended to induce (disappointed) sympathizers of the other parties to abstain, which indirectly benefited the Union. In some cases the party even took positions, e.g. B. in social and environmental policy, which differed only slightly from those of political competitors such as the SPD and Greens. The strategy turned out to be successful for the CDU, so Jung is considered to be jointly responsible for the Union's modernization course. But this also led to fears that the CDU was “losing its core” and “becoming social democrat”. The Spiegel journalists Markus Feldenkirchen and René Pfister accused Jung of claiming that his theory was an “attack on democracy” and that the previous “German party system” had been destroyed.

In March 2015, Jung published an article entitled The AfD as an opportunity for the Union in the journal Political Studies of the CSU-affiliated Hanns Seidel Foundation . In it he demanded that the Union “must move closer to the political center”. According to Jung, the upswing in the alternative for Germany should not be explained primarily as a reaction to the “modernization course of the Union”. This should now focus even more on the political center and distance itself from right-wing populist positions that are already in the AfD - and thus "find their home outside the Union". In addition, the strength of the AfD holds the advantage for the Union of preventing a left majority (“ red-red-green ”).

At the Hamburg Olympic Citizenship Referendum in November 2015, the Elections Research Group forecast clear approval for the Olympic application when the polling stations were closed. However, the majority of voters voted against it. The deviation of the forecast by eight per cent from the election result described Jung as a result of a failed experiment in the methodology carried out the previous day telephone survey.

Web links

Commons : Matthias Jung  - Collection of images, videos and audio files

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ a b Stefan Schirmer: Is the opinion poll Matthias Jung behind the middle course of the Chancellor? In: Die Zeit , No. 44/2017, October 26, 2017.
  2. ↑ a b Robert Birnbaum: Wahlfoscher Matthias Jung - Merkel's Demoskop. In: Der Tagesspiegel , June 24, 2016.
  3. ^ Stefan Reinecke: Opinion research strategies - power and powerlessness. In: taz , September 20, 2017. Quoted in Christina Holtz-Bacha: Bundestag election 2017. Slack election campaign? Exciting choice! In: The (mass) media in the election campaign. The 2017 Bundestag election. Springer VS, 2019, pp. 1–26, on pp. 4–5.
  4. ^ Stephan Lorz: Election researcher criticizes deficits in politics . In: Börsen-Zeitung , No. 174, September 11, 2009, p. 1. Accessed November 17, 2016
  5. ^ Matthias Jung, Yvonne Schroth, Andrea Wolf: Change of government without change mood . In: From Politics and Contemporary History . No. 51 . Federal Agency for Civic Education, Berlin December 3, 2009, p. 12-19 ( bpb.de ).
  6. ↑ Christina Holtz-Bacha: Bundestag election 2017. Slack election campaign? Exciting choice! In: The (mass) media in the election campaign. The 2017 Bundestag election. Springer VS, 2019, pp. 1–26, on pp. 4–5.
  7. ↑ Manfred G. Schmidt: The social policy of the CDU / CSU-FDP coalition from 2009 to 2013. In: Reimut Zohlnhöfer, Thomas Saalfeld: Politics in the shadow of the crisis. A review of the Merkel government 2009–2013. Springer VS, 2015, pp. 413-414.
  8. ↑ Udo Zolleis: It depends on the Chancellor. The CDU under Angela Merkel. In: Reimut Zohlnhöfer, Thomas Saalfeld: Politics in the shadow of the crisis. A review of the Merkel government 2009–2013. Springer VS, 2015, pp. 81–83.
  9. ^ Markus Feldenkirchen, René Pfister: "Change of government without change of mood". Spiegel interview with election researcher Matthias Jung about the crisis of the party system. In: Der Spiegel , No. 39, September 22, 2018, p. 44.
  10. ↑ Matthias Jung: The AfD as an opportunity for the Union. In: Political Studies , No. 460, March – April 2015, pp. 47–57.
  11. ↑ ZDF is completely wrong with the Olympic forecast - how it came about , Stern, accessed on November 25, 2016
personal data
SURNAME Jung, Matthias
BRIEF DESCRIPTION German election researcher
DATE OF BIRTH 1956
PLACE OF BIRTH Speyer