Parliamentary elections in Armenia in 2021

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2018Parliamentary elections in Armenia in 2021
(in %)
 %
80
70
60
50
40
30th
20th
10
0
54.0
(−16.4)
21.1
(+17.2)
5.2
(+0.5)
4.0
(−4.3)
3.0
(+1.0)
1.5
( n / a )
2018

2021

Template: election chart / maintenance / notes
Remarks:
e Comparative value 2018: result of the we-alliance
71
29
7th
71 29 7th 
A total of 107 seats

The parliamentary elections in Armenia 2021 took place on June 20, 2021. The members of the Armenian National Assembly were elected . As planned, the election would not have taken place until 2023, but was brought forward after the lost Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020 and subsequent protests.

background

The Armenian government under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan came to power after nationwide protests in 2018 and won 70% of the vote in that election . The government had focused on domestic issues: the fight against corruption, administrative reforms and a tax reform that introduced a single income tax rate. Many representatives of the former governments, which were seen as corrupt, were dismissed from the civil service, some were persecuted for embezzlement and some of the economic monopolies that had supported Pashinyan's predecessor were broken up. Foreign policy issues, in particular the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Azerbaijan, received less attention.

In autumn 2020, the war over Nagorno-Karabakh broke out , which Armenia lost with the allied de facto regime of Artsakh Republic and had to surrender control of large areas to Azerbaijan. There was a domestic political crisis with mutual accusations from the government, opposition and military that they were responsible for the defeat. During the war, civil liberties were severely restricted, which has already led to some criticism of excessive martial law measures. After the restrictions were lifted in December 2020, resentment soon broke out. In the same month there were street blockades demanding Pashinyan's resignation. There followed months of protests, further road blockades and the storming of a government building - but at the same time demonstrations for the government - as well as calls for resignation from the Armenian Church and, in February 2021, from the top military, what the government described as an attempted coup.

As a result, Pashinyan resigned on April 25, 2021 to pave the way for the dissolution of parliament and new elections. On May 3, Pashinyan's renewed candidacy was rejected by parliament in accordance with an agreement between all parliamentary groups, so that the chamber could be dissolved and new elections scheduled. Pashinyan remained in office as managing director.

Electoral system

The members of the National Assembly are elected on the basis of party lists. The number of seats is at least 101 and increases if additional mandates need to be assigned. Seats are allocated according to the D'Hondt procedure with a voting threshold of 5 percent for parties and 7 percent for alliances.

Regardless of the performance of the third-best party, it is a legal requirement that at least three parliamentary groups have to move into parliament. If a party wins more than two-thirds of the seats, the losing parties that made it over the five percent threshold will get additional seats, reducing the winning party's seat share to two-thirds.

The seats are allocated to the parties according to their national share of the vote. Four seats are reserved for national minorities ( Assyrians , Kurds , Russians and Yazidis ), with the parties having separate lists for the four groups.

Election campaign

The past, lost war and the security of Armenia are the dominant themes of the election campaign, which is dominated by nationalist parties and alliances. The issues of concentration of power among the elite and the distribution of wealth, which were decisive for the success of Pashinyan a few years earlier, have receded into the background. Many new parties and alliances are running for election. Pashinyan is also running again as the top candidate of his civil contract party and wants to gain a political majority for another term of office. He advertises his economic successes and the fight against monopolies and corruption, although the war and crises of 2020 initially wiped out the success of his economic policy. The border conflicts with Azerbaijan, which continued to flare up even after the ceasefire, are increasing dissatisfaction with the Pashinyan government. Pashinyan therefore accused Azerbaijan of influencing the election campaign with recurring incidents at the joint border - Azerbaijani soldiers are said to have penetrated Armenian territory several times. In addition, there was a scandal about the inadequate storage of the remains of Armenian soldiers from the war, while many of the dead have still not been identified. The prisoners of war still held in Azerbaijan are also an election issue. Their relatives continued to demonstrate during the election campaign for their release and for the Armenian government to be more involved in this matter. Coming under public pressure, Pashinyan offered his own son in exchange for the remaining prisoners. At the beginning of June, 15 prisoners of war were exchanged for cards showing areas mined by Armenia before 2020, which are now under Azerbaijan's control. However, it remains to be seen whether the exchange of Pashinyan is an advantage in the election.

Former Armenian President Robert Kocharyan and his party alliance “Armenia” turned out to be the most important candidate among the opposition parties in the election campaign . He benefits from the fact that he was in command of the first successful war for Nagorno-Karabakh in Armenia at the beginning of the 1990s. He is also considered a friend of Russian President Putin, receives support from Russian media, government agencies and entrepreneurs and can therefore unite pro-Russian voices behind him. Nevertheless, some analysts see only limited chances for Kocharyan, since, despite some approval, significantly larger sections of the population still reject him after he allegedly manipulated the 2008 election and put down protests. In addition, it is still associated with oligarchs who have taken advantage of and corrupted, which were widespread among his party's governments. However, the fact that he returned to Armenia in 2018 and spent some time in prison because of the allegations also makes him appear particularly strong in the eyes of some voters. His alliance "Armenia" includes several nationalist groups and promises to bring back some of the areas lost in the war and to set up militias. In terms of foreign policy, they rely on strong ties to Russia and less cooperation with the West. Internally, based on the Russian model, civil rights organizations financed from abroad such as so-called “Soros organizations” (those (co-) financed by Open Society Foundations ) are to be banned or restricted. In economic terms, they want to concentrate on building infrastructure that serves national security, as well as on digitization. In addition, Kocharian's alliance wants to lower taxes. While Pashinyan receives more support in the countryside, where local concerns are considered more important, the “Armenia” alliance is predicted to be more popular in the cities.

Former President Levon Ter-Petrosyan , who was also running, criticized Kocharyan's promise as “unrealistic warmongering”. He joins the Armenian National Congress and advocates a compromise with Azerbaijan. His party wants to push through an administrative reform and modernize the economy in the direction of environmentally friendly production and agriculture as well as information and nanotechnology and new energy sources. The alliance “I have honor” (PU, Heimatland / HHK) with Robert Harutjanjan wants to concentrate on budget restructuring and support for small and medium-sized companies and secure basic services for the citizens. Hrant Bagratyan and the Freedom Party want the state to invest more and reform financial policy. The 5.165 party calls for the Armenian economy to focus on military industry, agriculture, education, science, health and tourism. A unity government was proposed from the Blossoming Armenia party , which is supposed to lead the country out of the crisis, which is, however, also controversial within the party - especially with regard to the cooperation with the previous ruling party.

According to political scientist Oganesjan, the election is the first in Armenia in which the opposition can mobilize more resources than the government and therefore also the one with the strongest political competition so far. The ombudsman for human rights elected by parliament, on the other hand, expressed concern about the hate speech emerging during the election campaign, which could deepen the division in the country. He turned against the prime minister's martial rhetoric in particular. The OSCE is sending 80 election observers. At the end of the election campaign there were allegations from the opposition that the Pashinyan government was putting pressure on state officials in order to be able to gather as many people as possible for his election campaign appearances. The main competitors are close to a large number of national media or are owned by the parties or their members: the civil contract includes Haykakan Zhamanak Daily Newspaper, Armtimes.com, Free news TV company, Ararat Magazine, araratnews.am, Armenpress and Public Television of Armenia . The "Armenia" block is supported by Channel 5 TV, Yerevan Today, PARA TV and Yerkir Media TV. “I have honor” is connected to the media ArmNews TV, tert.am, blognews, news.am, 168․am, Hayeli.am, Analitik.am, Armenia TV and the newspaper Jokhovurd. While BHK is not affiliated with the media, ANK is associated with ilur.am news and the newspaper Tschorord Ischchanutiun.

Parties and Applicants

Participating parties

A total of 25 parties or alliances were registered to participate in the election:

  1. Fair Armenia Party (FAP)
  2. Armenian National Congress (HAK)
  3. Civil contract (KP)
  4. National Christian Party
  5. Freedom party
  6. Alliance "I have honor"
  7. United Home Party
  8. Armenian Statehood Party
  9. Luminous Armenia (LH)
  10. Armenia is our home
  11. Republican Party of Armenia (HHK)
  12. Home Party of the Armenians
  13. Free home alliance
  14. Blooming Armenia (BHK)
  15. Democratic Party of Armenia
  16. 5165 National Conservative Movement Party
  17. Citizen decision
  18. Alliance of Democrats
  19. National agenda
  20. Promotion party
  21. Liberal Party
  22. European Party of Armenia
  23. Armenian Alliance (HD)
  24. National democratic pole
  25. Sovereign Armenia Party

Top candidates

KP HD ( ARF / WH ) BHK PU ( home country / HHK ) LH
Nikol Pashinyan (2018-05-14) .jpg
Robert Kocharyan, second President of Armenia, 2006 (02) .JPG
Гагик 2016-09-13 17 (cropped) .jpg
Silver - replace this image male.svg
E.Marukyan.jpg
Nikol Pashinyan Robert Kocharyan Gagik Zarukjan Artur Vanetsyan Edmon Marukjan

Survey

Polls during the election campaign

The results of the surveys vary greatly depending on the institute, so that the informative value is limited. There are also a large number of undecided voters. This also applies to the approval of the most prominent candidates. So Pashinyan is sometimes preferred by 28%, sometimes by 33%, while Kocharyan is preferred by 13% or 20%. In particular, the meaningfulness of the results of MPG / Gallup International Armenia is questioned, since the methodology is ambiguous and is only based on calls from less common landline connections. However, when the government's polls were still high, this criticism did not yet come from the government-affiliated media.

Survey institute date KP HD BHK HHK LH Other source
MPG June 18, 2021 10.8% 28.7% 5.4% 5.4% 5.2%
MPG June 10, 2021 23.8% 24.1% 3.7% 7.4% 3.1% 3.1%
MPG June 4, 2021 22.4% 20.6% 4.2% 3.9% 2.9% 3.6%
MPG May 28, 2021 22.9% 17.5% 3.8% 2.7% 2.3% 4.5%
MPG May 21, 2021 24.8% 14.3% 4.1% 3.1% 2.0% 3.5%
MPG April 27, 2021 27.2% 8.1% 3.7% 1.8% 1.8% 2.2%
MPG March 29, 2021 31.7% 5.9% 4.4% 2.4% 2.7% 3.0%

Older polls

2019 - February 2021
Survey institute date KP HD BHK HHK LH Other source
MPG February 17, 2021 33.1% - 4.4% 2.2% 2.6% 3.3%
IRI February 16, 2021 33% - 3% 1 % 1 % 2%
MPG June 27, 2020 55% - 6% 1.4% 5% 1.9%
MPG 1st December 2019 61.3% - 14.2% 1.5% 3.9% 3.6%
IRI October 13, 2019 55% - 19% 4% 6% 5%
IRI May 31, 2019 59% - 12% 5% 4% 5%
MPG May 9, 2019 60% - 11.9% 1.6% 4.6% 2.8%

course

Surveys averaged over monthly survey results, from May 9, 2019 to June 4, 2021

Preliminary result

Political party voices proportion of Seats ±
My step alliance 687.251 53.97%
71/107
−17
"Armenia" (WH / ARF ) 268.165 21.06%
29/107
+29
"I have honor" ( HHK ) 66,633 5.23%
7/107
+ 07
Blooming Armenia 50,416 3.96%
0/107
−26
republic 38,713 3.04%
0/107
00
Armenian National Congress 19,647 1.54%
0/107
00
Shirinyan-Babajanyan Alliance 19,142 1.50%
0/107
New
National Democratic Alliance 18,767 1.47%
0/107
New
Shining Armenia 15,557 1.22%
0/107
−18
5165 National Conservative Movement 15,534 1.22%
0/107
New
Liberal Party 14,923 1.17%
0/107
New
Homeland of the Armenians 13,115 1.03%
0/107
New
Armenia is our home 12,162 0.96%
0/107
New
Democratic Party of Armenia 5,017 0.39%
0/107
New
National Christian Party 4,623 0.36%
0/107
New
Free homeland 4.136 0.32%
0/107
New
Fair Armenia 3,921 0.31%
0/107
New
Citizen decision 3,771 0.30%
0/107
00
Sovereign Armenia 3,558 0.28%
0/107
New
European Party of Armenia 2,786 0.22%
0/107
New
Freedom party 1,842 0.14%
0/107
New
Promotion party 1,245 0.10%
0/107
New
Some homeland 956 0.08%
0/107
New
All-Armenian State Party 803 0.06%
0/107
New
National agenda 721 0.06%
0/107
New
Invalid votes 8,507 - - -
total 1,281,911 100% 107 + 00
Voters and turnout: 2,593,572 49.43% - -
Source: Central Electoral Commission of the Republic of Armenia

After the election

When the preliminary results were announced on the night after the election, according to which the government alliance was able to hold an absolute majority, Pashinyan declared himself the winner. Because of the surprisingly good performance of the ruling party, the opposition, especially the “Armenia” alliance under Robert Kocharyan, complained about violations in the vote. She does not want to recognize the election result at first, as it contradicts the mood in the country and the many protests. The General Prosecutor's Office received 319 reports of irregularities and six investigations into suspected bribery during the election campaign were initiated. 41 incidents are being investigated for violations of the electoral process.

Audios

Individual evidence

  1. ^ Sunday, December 09, 2018 Parliamentary Elections. In: elections.am. Central Electoral Commission of the Republic of Armenia, accessed June 21, 2021 (arm).
  2. ^ A b c Laure Delcour: The Future of Democracy and State Building in Postconflict Armenia. Carnegie Europe, January 19, 2021, accessed June 20, 2021 .
  3. a b c d e f g Tigran Petrosyan: Elections in Armenia: All for the Fatherland . In: The daily newspaper: taz . June 14, 2021, ISSN  0931-9085 ( taz.de [accessed June 18, 2021]).
  4. a b tagesschau.de: Armenia: Power struggle shifts to the streets. Retrieved June 18, 2021 .
  5. Nikol Pashinyan's Opponents block three motorways in Armenia. In: Kawkasski Usel. December 22, 2020, accessed June 20, 2021 .
  6. tagesschau.de: Demonstrators storm government buildings. Retrieved June 18, 2021 .
  7. a b c Frank Nienhuysen: elections in Armenia: Premier Paschinjan threatens a defeat. Retrieved June 18, 2021 .
  8. Tigran Petrosyan: The aftermath of the war in Armenia: The church is suddenly in opposition . In: The daily newspaper: taz . December 24, 2020, ISSN  0931-9085 ( taz.de [accessed June 18, 2021]).
  9. Süddeutsche Zeitung: Armenia's head of government sees a coup attempt by the army. Retrieved June 18, 2021 .
  10. Armenia: Prime Minister Pashinyan clears the way for new elections , on de.euronews.com
  11. a b c d Barbara Oertel: Lost war leads to new elections in Armenia . In: The daily newspaper: taz . June 17, 2021, ISSN  0931-9085 , p. 5 ( taz.de [accessed June 18, 2021]).
  12. MPs reject Pashinyan's candidacy for post of prime minister of Armenia. In: Kawkasski Usel. May 3, 2021, accessed June 20, 2021 .
  13. a b c d e f g h i j k Armenia’s ex-president seeks to lead again | Eurasianet. Accessed June 18, 2021 .
  14. a b c d Elections in Armenia: Politicians present visions for the post-war economy. Retrieved June 19, 2021 .
  15. Pashinyan accuses Baku of trying to influence election outcomes in Armenia. In: Kawkasski Usel. May 31, 2021, accessed June 20, 2021 .
  16. Relatives of missing soldiers block a street in Yerevan. In: Kawkasski Usel. May 31, 2021, accessed June 20, 2021 .
  17. Frank Nienhuysen: elections in Armenia: Premier Paschinjan threatens a defeat. Retrieved June 20, 2021 .
  18. DER SPIEGEL: Azerbaijan releases Armenian prisoners of war. Retrieved June 20, 2021 .
  19. a b c Election in Armenia: Pashinyan against all. In: Caucasus Watch. June 18, 2021, accessed June 20, 2021 .
  20. ^ A b c Elections in Armenia: the final countdown. In: Caucasus Watch. June 18, 2021, accessed June 20, 2021 .
  21. ^ Elections in Armenia: Gallup states that Kocharyan now is ahead of Pashinyan. In: Caucasus Watch. June 13, 2021, accessed June 20, 2021 .
  22. Elections in Armenia: Kocharyan announces further political guidelines; Pashinyan expects a clear victory. In: Caucasus Watch. June 4, 2021, accessed June 20, 2021 .
  23. Armenia's ombudsman criticizes Nikol Pashinyan. In: Caucasus Watch. June 17, 2021, accessed June 20, 2021 .
  24. opposition accuses Pashinyan of using administrative resources in election campaign. In: Kawkasski Usel. June 18, 2021, accessed June 19, 2021 .
  25. MPG survey of June 10, 2021 , on youtube.am
  26. MPG survey from June 4, 2021 , on youtube.am
  27. MPG survey of May 28, 2021 , on youtube.am
  28. MPG survey of May 21, 2021 , on gallup.am
  29. ^ Gallup. Փաշինյանի դաշինքի վարկանիշը նվազել է 4.5% -ով , on panarmenian.am
  30. Հարցվածների 31.7 տոկոսը պատրաստ է քվեարկել «Իմ քայլը» դաշինքի օգտին , on armenexpress.am
  31. Նիկոլ Փաշինյանը մնում է ամենաբարձր վարկանիշ ունեցող քաղաքական գործիչը. հարցում , on armenexpress.am
  32. IRI survey of February 16, 2021 , on iri.org
  33. Հարցում ․ Քաղաքացիների 9 տոկոսը Գագիկ Ծառուկյանին կցանկանար տեսնել վարչապետի պաշտոնում , on aravot.am
  34. Հայաստանում հարցվածների 61.3% -ն ընտրությունների դեպքում պատրաստ է ձայնը տալ «Իմ քայլը» դաշինքին , on armenpress.am
  35. IRI survey of October 13, 2019 , on iri.org
  36. IRI survey of May 31, 2019 , on iri.org
  37. «8-10 տոկոս նվազում կա». Արամ Նավասարդյանը ՝ Նիկոլ Փաշինյանի վարկանիշի մասին , on aravot.am
  38. Early parliamentary elections in Armenia: victory for Pashinyan's party . In: The daily newspaper: taz . June 21, 2021, ISSN  0931-9085 ( taz.de [accessed June 21, 2021]).
  39. tagesschau.de: Election in Armenia: Pashinyan declared the election winner. June 21, 2021, accessed June 21, 2021 .
  40. ^ Police fixed 47 violations at early elections in Armenia. In: Kawkasski Usel. June 21, 2021, accessed June 21, 2021 .