Stagnation (economy)

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In the economy , stagnation describes a period of time in the economy in which production comes to a standstill. The measured variable for this is either the gross domestic product (domestic concept) or the gross national income (domestic concept). However, other (especially macroeconomic ) variables are also referred to as stagnation if they experience only slight growth, e.g. B. domestic consumption , macroeconomic demand or investment demand . If the gross domestic product falls, one speaks of recession or depression .

Stagnation describes a situation in which economic development falls short of its potential growth, which for example leads to unemployment. If such stagnation of macroeconomic variables persists for a longer period of time, one speaks of a stagnation crisis . If stagnation occurs together with inflation , it is also referred to as stagflation . However, in the imagination of both classic economists and modern growth critics , an economy without growth can be accompanied by full employment and a socially desirable state. Then rather than stagnation, people talk about a stationary economy .

The Keynesian US economist Alvin Hansen coined the term "secular stagnation" in the late 1930s. The thesis of “secular stagnation” is now being taken up again and advocated by economists such as Lawrence Summers and Paul Krugman . The secular stagnation is also discussed in connection with the low interest rate phase ( zero interest rate policy , negative interest rate ).

literature

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ Norbert Reuter : Stagnation in Trend - Living with saturated markets, stagnating economies and shorter working hours . Zeitschrift für Sozialökonomie , volume 166–167, November 2010, pp. 21–32.
  2. ^ Murray Milgate, Shannon C. Stimson: After Adam Smith . A Century of Transformation in Politics and Political Economy. Princeton University Press, ISBN 978-0-691-14037-7 . Pages 186-216.
  3. ^ Herman Daly : Steady-State Economics Island Press, 1977.
  4. ↑ Ferdinand Wenzlaff, Christian Kimmich, Oliver Richters: Theoretical approaches to a forced growth in the money economy , Center for Economic and Sociological Studies, University of Hamburg, ISSN  1868-4947 / 45, 2014.
  5. ↑ z. B. Hans-Werner Sinn : Forget Inflation. @ project-syndicate.org, February 26, 2009, accessed December 14, 2014
  6. ↑ Patrick Welter: “Unfounded fear of stagnation” , faz.net , January 9, 2014
  7. ↑ Hans-Werner Sinn: Letter to Carl Christian von Weizsäcker "Letter from Professor Hans-Werner Sinn to Professor Carl-Christian von Weizsäcker as a reaction to the current discussion about secular stagnation" (PDF), Munich, January 11, 2014
  8. ↑ Gauti Eggertson, Lawrence Summers "Secular stagnation in the open economies: How it spreads, how it can be cured" July 22, 2016
  9. ↑ German Institute for Economic Research , January 30, 2017: "The Natural Rate of Interest and Secular Stagnation"