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==Eastern Conference==
{{Refimprove|date=January 2008}}
{| class="wikitable"
[[Image:Eq-prob.jpg|right|thumbnail|[[Seismic hazard]] map of the [[San Francisco Bay Area]], showing the probability of a major earthquake occurring by 2032]]
|-
An '''earthquake prediction''' is a [[prediction]] that an [[earthquake]] in a specific [[Moment magnitude scale|magnitude]] range will occur in a specific region and time window. Predictions are considered as such to the extent that they are reliable for practical, as well as scientific, purposes. Although there is evidence that at least some earthquakes in some tectonic regimes are predictable with useful accuracy of time and space, the reliability and reproducibility of prediction techniques have not been established and are therefore generally not accepted by [[seismologist]]s. For practical purposes, seismologists bring forth [[seismic hazard]] assessment programs by estimating the [[probabilities]] that a given earthquake or suite of earthquakes will occur.
! Team
! Play-by-play
! Analyst
! Sideline
! Flagship Station
|-
|'''[[Hamilton Tiger-Cats|Hamilton]]'''
| [[Rick Zamperin]]
| [[John Salavantis]]
|
| [[CHML]]
|-
|'''[[Montreal Alouettes|Montreal]]'''
| [[Rick Moffat]]
| [[Ed Phillion]] & [[Tony Proudfoot]]
|
| [[CJAD]]
|-
|
| [[Denis Casavant]]
| [[Pierre Vercheval]]
|
| [[CKAC]]
|-
|'''[[Toronto Argonauts|Toronto]]'''
| [[Mike Hogan (sportscaster)|Mike Hogan]]
| [[Pete Martin]]
| [[Sara Buchan]]
| [[CJCL]]
|-
|'''[[Winnipeg Blue Bombers|Winnipeg]]'''
| [[Bob Irving]]
| [[Mitch Zalnasky]]
|
| [[CJOB]]
|}


==Western Conference==
==Controversy in trying to predict earthquakes==
{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Team
! Play-by-play
! Analyst
! Sideline
! Flagship Station
|-
|'''[[British Columbia Lions|British Columbia]]'''
| [[Rick Ball]]
| [[Giulio Caravatta]]
| [[Scott Rintoul]]
| [[CKST]]
|-
|'''[[Calgary Stampeders|Calgary]]'''
| [[Mark Stephen]]
| [[Greg Peterson (Canadian football)|Greg Peterson]]
| [[Scott Deibert]] or [[Rocco Romano]]
| [[CHRQ]]
|-
|'''[[Edmonton Eskimos|Edmonton]]'''
| [[Bryan Hall]]
| [[Dave Campbell (Canadian football)|Dave Campbell]]
|
| [[CHED]]
|-
|'''[[Saskatchewan Roughriders|Roughriders]]'''
| [[Rod Pedersen]]
| [[Carm Carteri]]
|
| [[CKRM]]
|}


==Television==
In the effort to predict earthquakes, people have tried to associate an impending earthquake with such varied phenomena as seismicity patterns, [[electromagnetic field]]s, weather conditions and [[Earthquake cloud|unusual clouds]], [[radon]] or [[hydrogen]] gas content of soil or ground water, water level in wells, and [[animal behavior]].
{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Play-by-play
! Analyst
! Sideline
! Network
|-
| [[Chris Cuthbert]]
| [[Glen Suitor]]
| [[Sara Orlesky]] (Friday Night Football), [[Wray Morrison]] (Saskatchewan Home Games), [[Jermain Franklin]] (Calgary Home Games), [[Farhan Lalji]] (BC Home Games), [[John Lu]] (Montreal Home Games), [[Ryan Rishaug]] (Edmonton Home Games), [[James Cybulski]] (Toronto Home Games), [[Shawn Churchill]] (Winnipeg Home Games)
| [[CFL on TSN|TSN]]
|-
| [[Rod Black]]
| [[Duane Forde]]
| [[Wray Morrison]] (Saskatchewan Home Games), [[Jermain Franklin]] (Calgary Home Games), [[Farhan Lalji]] (BC Home Games), [[John Lu]] (Montreal Home Games), [[Ryan Rishaug]] (Edmonton Home Games), [[James Cybulski]] (Toronto Home Games), [[Shawn Churchill]] (Winnipeg Home Games)
| [[CFL on TSN|TSN]]
|-
| [[Denis Casavant]]
| [[Pierre Vercheval]]
| [[David Arsenault]]
| [[Réseau des sports|RDS]]
|}


{{CFL}}
Thus far, earthquake prediction is controversial because data are sparse and there is little evidence or verified physical theory to link observable phenomena to subsequent seismicity. The frequent practice of publishing predictions after the fact further complicates matters. Also, given enough predictions, it is virtually inevitable that some will succeed "by chance." Assessing whether a successful prediction is a fluke is challenging. Most assessments rely on chance models for earthquake occurrence, models that are difficult to test or validate, because large earthquakes are so rare, and because earthquake activity is naturally clustered in space and time.


[[Category:Canadian Football League on television|Current Canadian Football League broadcasters]]
==Earthquake pre-detection versus prediction==

Earthquake pre-detection is more reliable than earthquake prediction since it is based upon detecting the non-destructive [[P-wave|primary waves]] that travel more quickly through the earth's crust than do the destructive [[S-waves|secondary]] and [[Rayleigh wave|Rayleigh]] waves, in the same way that lightning flashes reaches our eyes before we hear the thunder during a storm. The advance warning time available using this approach is only on the order of seconds (or tens of seconds for deep and distant large quakes), however there exists a technology currently in use known as the QuakeGuard™, Quake Alarm™ systems that employs this technique to automate emergency response procedures that protect against loss of life and reduce property damage.<ref name="pre-detection">{{cite web |url=http://www.seismicwarning.com/web/technology/waveseparation.php |title=Earthquake P-wave Pre-Detection and Disaster Mitigation Technology |year= 1999}}</ref>

==Predictions versus forecasts==

A meaningful earthquake prediction must have all the following elements:
* Specific area
* Specific magnitude or magnitude range
* Specific time window
* Estimate of probability compared to random chance
* A physical basis

A meaningful 'forecast' does not require the same accuracy, rather the term refers to prognostications on a longer time scale that are usually probabilistic.

Note that a physical basis is most critical for a prediction to have meaning to the geological community. Any method to make accurate predictions would be welcome and meaningful to many people even if no mechanism were known (much like doctors are now investigating diagnostics through statistical analysis of gene expression microarrays, even when the mechanisms linking particular genes to conditions remain unknown), as long as it was repeatable and the reliability could be quantified.

==Tidal forces==

There are two flavors of tidal stressing that have been claimed to generate enhanced rates of earthquakes - diurnal and biweekly tides. The diurnal correlations would arise from more earthquakes only during the hours when the tidal stress is pushing in an encouraging direction, in contrast, biweekly effects would be based on earthquakes occurring during the days when the sinusoidal stressing oscillations are largest. The former, as most easily observed in the twice-daily rise and fall of the ocean tides, have occasionally been shown to influence tides (e.g.,<ref>{{cite journal
|url= http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/306/5699/1164?maxtoshow=&HITS=10&hits=10&RESULTFORMAT=&fulltext=Earth+tides+can+trigger+shallow+thrust&searchid=1&FIRSTINDEX=0&resourcetype=HWCIT
|author = E. S. Cochran and J. E. Vidale and S. Tanaka
|publisher = Science
|journal = Science
|pages = 1164–1166
|year = 2004
| title = Earth tides can trigger shallow thrust fault earthquakes
|volume= 306
|doi= 10.1126/science.1103961
| pmid = 15498971
}}</ref>, this paper shows there may be some weak tidal triggering of shallow, oceanic thrust-faulting earthquakes). The latter, which arises from the periodic alignment of the Sun and Moon, has often been claimed in the popular press to incubate earthquakes (sometimes termed the "syzygy" effect) and occasionally for small datasets in the scientific literature (e.g.,<ref>{{cite journal
| url=http://www.gsajournals.org/i0091-7613-31-6-e3.html
| author=John H. Glaser
| publisher=The Geological Society of America
| journal=Geology: Online Forum - Breathing of the seafloor
| pages=pp. e3
| month=May | year=2003
| title=Tidal correlations of seismicity
| doi=10.1130/0091-7613(2003)031<0387:NGRAMT>2.0.CO;2
| volume=31
| year=2003
}}</ref>), but generally such effects do not appear in careful studies of large datasets.

Syzygy, which is not given much credence in the scientific community, is motivated by the observation that, historically, there have been some great earthquakes whose timing with when the tidal forces are near their maximum. For maximum tidal force, three factors must coincide: First, when the moon (in its elliptical orbit) is closest to the earth; second, when it is within a day or two of a new moon (so that the tidal forces of the moon and sun are acting in concert); and third, when the earth (in its elliptical orbit) is at or near its closest distance to the sun.

Shallow earthquakes near mid-ocean ridges, volcanic earthquakes, and episodic tremor and slip have also been observed to sometimes correlate with the diurnal tides, with enhanced activity correlating with times that faults are unclamped.

==Earthquake prediction in China==
Chinese earthquake prediction research is largely based on unusual events before earthquakes, such as change of ground water levels, strange animal behavior and foreshocks. The Chinese successfully predicted the [[February 4]], [[1975]] M7.3 [[1975 Haicheng earthquake|Haicheng earthquake]]<ref>{{cite web
| url=http://www.eserc.stonybrook.edu/wise/HSfall2001/QuakePrediction.html
| title=Earthquake Prediction: Haicheng, China - 1975
| publisher=Earth Science Educational Resource Center
| year=2001
| author=Glenn Richard
| accessdate=2006-10-22
}} Course notes for a workshop held at the Mineral Physics Institute at the Stony Brook University.</ref> and the China State Seismological Bureau ordered an evacuation of 1 million people the day before the earthquake, but failed to predict the [[July 28]], [[1976]] M7.8 [[Tangshan earthquake]].<ref>{{cite web
| url=http://www.drgeorgepc.com/EarthquakePredictionChina.html
| title=Earthquake Prediction in China
| author=George Pararas Carayannis
| accessdate=2006-10-22
}}</ref> This failure put Chinese earthquake prediction research in doubt for several years.
However, there are messages showing that the Tangshan earthquake was predicted successfully.<ref>{{cite book
| url=http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%BC%B5%E6%85%B6%E6%B4%B2
| date=2006-01
| title=《[唐山警世錄─七‧二八大地震漏報始末]》上海人民出版社2006年1月初版，ISBN 7-208-06038-X /K.1170
| author=張慶洲
| publisher=上海人民出版社
}}{{zh icon}}</ref>.
Chinese research has now merged with Western research, but traditional techniques are still common. Another successful prediction of the [[November 29]], [[1999]], M5.4 [[Gushan-Pianling Earthquake]] in [[Haicheng, Liaoning|Haicheng]] city and [[Xiuyan]] city, [[Liaoning]] Province, China was made a week before the earthquake. No fatalities or injuries were reported.<ref>{{cite news
| publisher=People's Daily
| url=http://web.peopledaily.com.cn/rmrb/199912/06/newfiles/col_19991206001042_jryw.html
| title=海城岫岩地震预测准确 (Roughly: Prediction of Youyan, Haicheng Earthquake was precise)
| date=[[December 6]], [[1999]]
| accessdate=2006-10-22
}} {{zh icon}}</ref>

==Demeter microsatellite==
The "Detection of Electro-Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions" satellite, constructed by [[CNES]], has made observations which show strong correlations between certain types of low frequency electromagnetic activity and the seismically most active zones on the Earth, and have shown a sharp signal in the [[ionosphere|ionospheric]] [[electron]] [[density]] and [[temperature]] near southern Japan seven days before a 7.1 magnitude occurred there (on [[August 29]] and [[September 5]], [[2004]], respectively).<ref>{{cite web
| url=http://lettres-histoire.ac-rouen.fr/histgeo/demeter.htm
| title=Satellite défilant du CNES (France)
| accessdate=2006-10-22
}} {{fr}}</ref>

==The VAN method==
[[VAN method|VAN]] is a method of earthquake prediction proposed by Professors [[Panayotis Varotsos|Varotsos]], Alexopoulos and Nomicos in the 1980s; it was named after the researchers' initials. The method is based on the detection of "seismic electric signals" (SES) via a telemetric network of conductive metal rods inserted in the ground. The method stems from theoretical predictions by P. Varotsos, a solid-state physicist at the [[National and Capodistrian University of Athens]]. It is continually refined as to the manner of identifying SES from within the abundant electric noise the VAN sensors are picking up. Researchers have claimed to be able to predict earthquakes of magnitude larger than 5, within 100 km of epicentral location, within .7 units of magnitude and in a 2-hour to 11-day time window. The method has undergone [http://www.amazon.com/Critical-Review-Van-Earthquake-Prediction/dp/9810225423 critical review] by [http://deprem.itu.edu.tr/VAN_METHOD.htm Sir James Lighthill], and has [http://yochi.iord.u-tokai.ac.jp/eprc/res/incede/incede2a.html created scientific interest in Japan].

==Animal behavior==

{{weasel}}

It is claimed that animals can detect the [[P-wave]] or [[ultrasonic wave]] generated by a big underground explosion or the rupture of an earthquake, even if the waves are too small for humans' senses. These waves travel faster than the [[S-wave]] and Rayleigh earthquake waves that most strongly shake the ground and causes the most damage; when this happens, animals can detect the incoming earthquake wave, and start behaving agitatedly or nervously.

Others postulate that the animal behavior is simply their response to an increase in low-frequency [[Electromagnetic radiation|electromagnetic]] signals. The [[University of Colorado at Boulder|University of Colorado]] has demonstrated that electromagnetic activity can be generated by the fracturing of crystalline rock. Such activity occurs in fault lines before earthquakes. According to recent research, electromagnetic sensors yield statistically valid results in predicting earthquakes.<ref>{{cite journal
| url=http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/freeabs_all.jsp?arnumber=1549778
| author = T. Bleier and F. Freund
| journal=Spectrum, IEEE
| month=December | year=2005
| volume=42
| issue=12
| pages=22–27
| accessdate=2006-10-22
| title=Earthquake [earthquake warning systems]
| doi=10.1109/MSPEC.2005.1549778
}}</ref>

Some people believe that in these ways, animals sense the immediate onset of earthquakes. In support of this claim, instances are cited when people have witnessed flight of animals just before an earthquake disaster. In fact, according to the Chief conservator of forests for the [[India]]n state of [[Tamil Nadu]], a few minutes before the killer [[tsunami]] waves generated by an underwater earthquake hit the Indian coastline in December 2004, a 500-strong herd of blackbucks rushed away from the coastal areas to the safety of a nearby hilltop. Since the beginning of recorded history, observations of unusual animal behavior before earthquakes have been recorded by people from almost all civilizations. The Chinese began a systematic study of this unusual animal behavior and in December 1974 predicted a major earthquake that did, in fact, occur in February 1975. But skeptics claim to debunk nearly all such observations. In fact, the 1975 prediction relied most heavily on a series of strong foreshocks. The animal behavior reports are often ambiguous and not consistently observed. There is little evidence for animals being able to sense impending earthquakes, although it is likely they can sense the initial, weaker P-waves before people. Seismometers remain much more sensitive than even the animals, however.

In folklore, some animals have had more reports of being able to predict earthquakes than others, especially dogs, cats, chickens, horses, and other smaller animals. There have been reports with elephants, as well. Goats, cows, and most larger animals are generally reported as being less able to predict earthquakes.

[[Japan]] has a long tradition associating catfish with earthquake prediction. From this idea emerged a long university research programme concluding in 2004 in which it was proposed that the (established) high sensitivity of catfish to electric fields was involved in detecting fields of a few [[hertz]] because of [[piezoelectric]] effects on deeply buried [[quartz]] crystals. Actual monitoring of catfish and correlation with earthquakes gave results that are not promising.

==Other predictions==
In early 2004, a group of scientists at the [[University of California, Los Angeles]], lead by Dr. [[Vladimir Keilis-Borok]], predicted that a quake similar in strength to the [[San Simeon earthquake]] of 2003 would occur in a 12,000 square mile (31,100 km) area of [[Southern California]] by September of that year. The odds were given as 50/50.

In April 2004, the [[California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council]] (CEPEC) evaluated Keilis-Borok's prediction and reported to the [[California State Office of Emergency Services]].<ref>{{cite web
| url=http://www.conservation.ca.gov/index/CEPEC_KB_Report_030204.pdf
| title=Report to the Director, Governor's Office of Emergency Services
| author=California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council
| month=March | year=2002
| accessdate=2006-10-22
|format=PDF}}</ref> CEPEC concluded that the "uncertainty along with the large geographic area included in the prediction (about 12,400 square miles) leads (us) to conclude that the results do not at this time warrant any special policy actions in California.” The predicted time window came and went with no significant earthquake.

Based on the historic record of the various published efforts to predict a quake, one might conclude that earthquake prediction is usually imprecise, but remains an art that is scientifically and socially useful.

According to new research to be published by Prof. [[Shlomo Havlin]], of Bar-Ilan University's Department of Physics, earthquakes form patterns which can improve the ability to predict the timing of their recurrence. In November 2005 (November 11 issue) the journal ''[[Physical Review Letters]]'', published by the [[American Physical Society]], published an article by researchers from Israel and Germany that say that there is a way to predict when the next earthquake will hit.

Prof. Shlomo Havlin's from [[Bar-Ilan University]] in Israel, in collaboration with Prof. Armin Bunde, of the [[University of Giessen|Justus-Liebig University]] in Giessen, Germany, and Bar-Ilan University graduate student Valerie Livina used the "scaling" approach from physics to develop a mathematical function to characterize earthquakes of a wide range of magnitudes in order to learn from smaller magnitude earthquakes about larger magnitude earthquakes. The team's findings reveal that the recurrence of earthquakes is strongly dependent on the recurrence times of previous earthquakes.

This memory effect not only provides a clue to understanding the observed clustering of earthquakes, but also suggests that delays in earthquake occurrences, as seen today in Tokyo and in San Francisco, are a natural phenomenon.

In another paper in the journal ''[[Nature (journal)|Nature]]'', Richard Allen of the University of California claims that the distinction between small and large earthquakes can be made from the very first seconds of seismic energy recorded by seismometers, though other scientists are not convinced.<ref>{{cite journal
| date=[[November 9]], [[2005]]
| url=http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v438/n7065/index.html
| title=The start of something big?
| author=Rachel Abercrombie
| journal=Nature
| pages=171
| accessdate=2006-10-22
}}</ref> If correct this may make earthquake early warning (as distinct from prediction) more powerful. Earthquake early warning provides an alarm that strong shaking is due soon to arrive, and the more quickly that the magnitude of an earthquake can be estimated, the more useful is the early warning. However, earthquake early warning can still be effective without the ability to infer the magnitude of an earthquake in its initial second or two.

One possible method for predicting earthquakes, although it has not yet been applied yet, is fractoluminescence. Before the Kobe earthquake in Japan, many people reported seeing flashes of red and blue light in the sky up to an hour before the earthquake. Studies at the Chugoku National Industrial Research Institute by Yoshizo Kawaguchi have shown that upon fracturing, silica releases red and blue light for a period of about 100 milliseconds. Kawaguchi attributed this to the relaxation of the free bonds and unstable oxygen atoms that are left when the silicon oxygen bonds have broken due to the stresses within the rock.<ref>{{cite journal
| date=[[April 6]], [[1998]]
| url=http://jjap.ipap.jp/link?JJAP/37/3495/
| title=Charged Particle Emission and Luminescence upon Bending Fracture of Granite
| author=Yoshizo Kawaguchi
| journal=Jpn. J. Appl. Phys.
| pages=3495-3499
| accessdate=2008-10-13
}}</ref>

== Loma Prieta, California ==

From 1968 to 1988 scientists in California mapped seismic activity on a cross section of the fault lines. They identified a "[[seismic gap]]" in the Loma Prieta area from various features of the regional seismicity. They therefore concluded that Loma Prieta was due for an earthquake. On [[17 October]] [[1989]] the [[Loma Prieta earthquake]] occurred, initially reported as measuring 7.1 on the Richter scale but later more accurately recorded as moment magnitude 6.9, causing 63 deaths. This prediction, however was not very useful as it could not predict the exact date.

==See also==
*[[Forecasting]]
*[[Earthquake storm]]
*[[Earthquake weather]]
*[[Earthquake warning system]]
*[[Jim Berkland]] (and the role of the [[moon]])

==References==
{{reflist}}

==External links==
* The USGS view on earthquake prediction http://www.geophys.washington.edu/SEIS/PNSN/INFO_GENERAL/eq_prediction.html
* Earthquake forecasting techniques and more research on the study of electromagnetic fields: http://www.quakefinder.com/research/forecasttech.php
* Studies on Tide-Forming Forces and Earthquakes were published in [http://www.opteryx.de/docs/tamrazyan/Tamrazyan_1967.pdf 1967] and [http://www.opteryx.de/docs/tamrazyan/Tamrazyan_1968.pdf 1968] by [[Elsevier]], but the [http://earthquake.usgs.gov/faq/myths.html#5 U.S. Geological Survey: Common Myths About Earthquakes] contradicts this study.
* [http://www.petquake.org/ PetQuake] - encourages users to submit reports of atypical animal behavior and produces real-time dot map of the world
* [http://hayadan.org.il/english/2008/01/01/havli-earthquakes/ When Will the Next Earthquake Occur?]
* [http://www.isracast.com/tech_news/181105a_tech.htm Stopping the next big one] - Is Earthquake prediction and prevention possible?
* [http://quake.exit.com Earthquake Predictions]
* [http://www.earthquakeweather.org The Earthquake Weather Project]
* [http://www.quakeprediction.com Earthquake Prediction - updated daily]
* [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7435324.stm Plan for quake 'warning system'] (BBC News)

Earthquake prediction by geometric relationship of planets, moon, and sun.
* [http://www.quakestar.org Astronomical/astrological geometric relationship prediction]
* [http://www.seismicwarning.com/web/technology/waveseparation.php Earthquake Pre-Detection and Advance Warning Technology for Disaster Mitigation]

[[Category:Earthquake and seismic risk mitigation]]
[[Category:Prediction]]

[[de:Erdbebenvorhersage]]
[[eo:Tertrema prognozo]]
[[ja:地震#地震予知]]
[[tl:Pagtaya ng lindol]]
[[zh:地震預測]]

Revision as of 19:03, 13 October 2008

Eastern Conference

Team Play-by-play Analyst Sideline Flagship Station
Hamilton Rick Zamperin John Salavantis CHML
Montreal Rick Moffat Ed Phillion & Tony Proudfoot CJAD
Denis Casavant Pierre Vercheval CKAC
Toronto Mike Hogan Pete Martin Sara Buchan CJCL
Winnipeg Bob Irving Mitch Zalnasky CJOB

Western Conference

Team Play-by-play Analyst Sideline Flagship Station
British Columbia Rick Ball Giulio Caravatta Scott Rintoul CKST
Calgary Mark Stephen Greg Peterson Scott Deibert or Rocco Romano CHRQ
Edmonton Bryan Hall Dave Campbell CHED
Roughriders Rod Pedersen Carm Carteri CKRM

Television

Play-by-play Analyst Sideline Network
Chris Cuthbert Glen Suitor Sara Orlesky (Friday Night Football), Wray Morrison (Saskatchewan Home Games), Jermain Franklin (Calgary Home Games), Farhan Lalji (BC Home Games), John Lu (Montreal Home Games), Ryan Rishaug (Edmonton Home Games), James Cybulski (Toronto Home Games), Shawn Churchill (Winnipeg Home Games) TSN
Rod Black Duane Forde Wray Morrison (Saskatchewan Home Games), Jermain Franklin (Calgary Home Games), Farhan Lalji (BC Home Games), John Lu (Montreal Home Games), Ryan Rishaug (Edmonton Home Games), James Cybulski (Toronto Home Games), Shawn Churchill (Winnipeg Home Games) TSN
Denis Casavant Pierre Vercheval David Arsenault RDS
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