Missouri Bellwether
In the English-speaking world, Missouri Bellwether is the name given to the phenomenon that the US state of Missouri precisely portrayed the United States in the 20th century in socio-cultural, demographic and political terms . From the beginning of the last century to 2008, Missouri was a competitive swing state in presidential elections and from 1904 to 2004, with one exception, always voted for the victorious candidate in the election.
Missouri's status as a bellwether (bellwether) is increasingly being questioned.
background
Missouri, geographically located in the middle of the USA, represented both camps during the civil war in the 19th century: Although Missouri remained part of the Union , the governor announced that he would join the confederation from exile . Missouri has been the site of fierce fighting between Union forces and Confederates.
Missouri's demographic structure has long represented a “microcosm” of the United States. The proportion of urban and rural population and ethnic composition hardly differed from the average in the United States over the course of the 20th century. In 1990, 88.1 percent of Missouri's residents were white and 10.7 percent were African American, while in the entire United States there were 83.9 percent white and 12.3 percent African American.
Accordingly, Missouri voted from the presidential election in 1904 on, with the exception of 1956 , where the gap was only 4,000 votes, always for the ultimately victorious candidate in the presidential election. Missouri has been highly competitive in almost every election and voted in most elections with similar percentage results as the rest of the United States. The saying goes: "As Missouri goes, so goes the nation" ('As Missouri votes, so the nation votes').
In presidential primaries, Missouri has always voted for the final nominee for the Democrats since 2000 , with one exception for the Republicans (2012).
Missouri is also a Bellwether in other state-wide elections: In the 2006 Senate election , Democrat Claire McCaskill prevailed against Republican incumbent Jim Talent - the Democrats regained control of the Senate in this election. In the 2012 Senate election it was able to extend its lead and the Democrats won a total of seats in the Senate, but they lost the 2018 election , just as the Democrats lost seats and remained a minority party.
Social trends such as attitudes towards abortion or equal rights for homosexuals and African-Americans also corresponded to the trend in the USA. If surveys in Missouri showed a change in approval for a topic (e.g. same-sex marriage ), this was also the case across the US.
future
Missouri's status as a Bellwether is classified as uncertain or out of date. In 2008 , Missouri did not vote for the victorious candidate in the presidential election, Barack Obama , for the first time since 1956 , but by a narrow margin for Republican John McCain . In 2012, Republican Mitt Romney won by nine points over Obama, who won the election overall. In 2016 Hillary Clinton lost Missouri 19 points behind Donald Trump , while she was way ahead of the US. Political observers now classify Missouri as a firmly republican state and no longer as contested.
The main reasons for this are seen in ever larger deviations in the demographic structure. In 2018, 61.5 percent of the US population were non-Hispanic white, 14.1 percent African-American and 18.3 percent Hispanics of any race , while in Missouri 80.4 percent were white (excluding Hispanics), 12.6 percent were African-American and only 4.3 percent were Hispanics. The latter group in particular is considered to be more inclined towards the Democrats. In addition, while in the United States the cities are gaining more and more inhabitants both in absolute terms and in relation to the country, the urban centers of Missouri are stagnating in absolute numbers or are even losing inhabitants, while the proportion of the rural population continues to rise. In addition, Missouri has a higher proportion of traditionally conservative evangelicals than other states. Voter turnout in rural Missouri also rose significantly more sharply in the last election than in the cities.
States such as Ohio or Nevada are now seen as Bellwether , with the former showing demographic trends similar to Missouri and it is accordingly assumed that Ohio, like Missouri, will lose its Bellwether status in the near future.
See also
literature
- Donald W. Beachlet et al .: Presidential Swing States: Why Only Ten Matter , Lexington Books, 2015, ISBN 0739195255 .
Individual evidence
- ↑ a b Richard Deiss: From the blue banana to the rhubarb triangle , BoB Verlag, 2013, ISBN 3833455136 , p. 17 (" Bellwether ")
- ↑ a b c Micah Cohen: In Missouri's Move to the Right, a Question of How Far , FiveThirtyEight , August 21, 2012, accessed August 18, 2019
- ↑ a b Michael Streck: Mother of the Swing States , Die Wochenzeitung , October 28, 2004, accessed: August 18, 2019
- ^ John Payne: Is Missouri Still a Bellwether? , The American Conservative, October 7, 2016. Retrieved August 18, 2019
- ↑ a b c d Donald W. Beachlet et al .: Presidential Swing States: Why Only Ten Matter , Lexington Books, 2015, ISBN 0739195255 , pp. 46-61 (chapter “ The One That Got Away: Missouri's Break from Ultimate Swing State Status ")
- ↑ a b Population Trends, 1990 to 2018 , Missouri Census Data Center, accessed August 18, 2019
- ↑ a b c Brian Ellison: As Trump Upends DC Norms, Missouri Has Its Own Political Turbulence , KCUR 89.3, January 25, 2018, accessed August 18, 2019
- ^ Mary Edwards & Evita Caldwell: No longer a bellwether, how significant will Missouri's role be during the 2016 election? , St. Louis Public Radio, July 1, 2015, accessed August 18, 2019
- ^ Henry Grabar: Why Can't Democrats Win in Ohio? , slate.com, November 12, 2018, accessed: August 18, 2019