Consumer Confidence Index
The US Consumer Confidence Index (CCI index for consumer confidence) measures the propensity of households in the United States . It is published by the independent research institute "The Conference Board" based in New York . The index is in competition with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index , the consumer confidence index from Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan .
concept
The US Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is a leading indicator of economic development in the United States. For the calculation, 5,000 representatively selected consumers are surveyed about their consumption plans, in particular their propensity to buy durable consumer goods . The monthly report, the Consumer Confidence Survey, measures the confidence households have in the performance of the American economy . Consumer confidence is a key indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for around two-thirds of US economic output. The market research company that conducts the survey for the Conference Board sends out 5000 questionnaires nationwide, of which around 3500 are answered.
The survey consists of five questions on the following topics:
- Judgment on the current economic development in the region of the respondent
- Assessment of the economic development in six months
- Current availability of jobs in the respondent's region
- Availability of jobs in six months
- Family income for the next six months
The participants of the survey are asked to answer each question “positive”, “negative” or “neutral”. From all data, the Conference Board calculates two sub-indices, which together make up the overall index: the Present Situation Index for assessing the current situation and the Expectations Index, which includes the assessment of future expectations. Opinions on current behavior account for up to 40 percent of the overall index, expectations of future behavior make up 60 percent. The preliminary results from the Consumer Confidence Survey will be on the last Tuesday of each month at 10:00 EST (16:00 CET published).
rating
One of the strengths of the US Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is the publication of data for the current month. Consumer confidence is a leading indicator of economic cycles. The published information provides information about the current situation and future expectations of consumers.
One of the weaknesses of the index is that consumers do not have the information necessary to make a correct estimate of income and job growth in advance. The monthly report contains information about planned expenses that are not necessarily made.
In a phase of prolonged economic growth, buying intentions may decrease despite falling unemployment , as the brisk demand has already been satisfied. On the other hand, when inflation rises, the purchase plans can increase in the short term, as consumers, in anticipation of rising prices, implement them quickly in order to avoid the price increase.
The financial markets react sensitively to unexpected changes in the index; it is perceived as a leading indicator for economic developments as well as rising inflation . Like the Case-Shiller Index , the FHFA House Price Index or the oil price, the CCI and Purchasing Managers Index belong to the group of indicators , the development of which has a noticeable influence on the stock indices .
In addition to the CCI, there are two consumer climate indices in the United States : the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index from Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan, and the ABC News Consumer Comfort Index from the Washington Post . While the question of the Conference Board focuses on the labor market situation, the other indices focus on the financial situation of households. Overall, the data from the Conference Board form a more stable relationship with economic data than the indices from the University of Michigan and the Washington Post. The CCI is the most widely watched consumer confidence index in the United States by the media, businesspeople, and consumers.
history
Historical overview
The US Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) was first published in 1985 with a base value of 100 points by the market research institute "The Conference Board" and was calculated back to December 1966. The long-term average of the time series of the CCI from 1966 to 2007 is 98.7 index points. The average from 2008 to 2012 is 56.5 index points. The average of the entire time series from 1966 to 2012 is 94.1 index points. According to the Conference Board, the limit at which the US economy can find itself in an expansion phase is 90 points. The average of consumer confidence in the phases of stable economic development is 110 points.
In January and May 2000 the CCI achieved an all-time high of 144.7 points. In the course of the financial crisis from 2007 onwards, the situation on the labor market in the United States deteriorated . Unemployment grew and workers' real income fell. Accordingly, consumer confidence fell in February 2009 to an all-time low of 25.3 points. The two sub-indices on the current situation and on expectations experienced a similar development.
In July 2000, the Present Situation Index reached a record high of 186.8 points. By December 2009 it fell to a low of 20.2 points. It was lower only during the recession from 1980 to 1982. In December 1982 the situation index marked an all-time low of 15.9 points. The Expectations Index rose in January 2000 to a high of 119.1 points. It was only a few points below its all-time high of May 1983 with 124.3 points. By February 2009, the expectation index had dropped to an all-time low of 27.3 points.
In February 2011 there were changes in the market research company and in the methodology. The Nielsen Company conducted the monthly survey for the Conference Board from Taylor Nelson Sofres (TNS). A random sample , a subsequent stratification by weighting for gender, income, geography and age, as well as the seasonal adjustment method X-12-ARIMA from the United States Census Bureau were introduced . The change in methodology resulted in higher consumer confidence than originally published. The new index resulted in 57.8 points for November 2010 (previously 54.3 points), 63.4 points for December 2010 (previously 53.3 points) and 65.6 points for January 2011 (previously 60.6 points). In February 2011 a value of 72.0 points was determined.
In October 2011, the consumer confidence index fell to 40.9 points and was below the 50 point limit for the third month in a row, after August (45.2 points) and September (46.4 points). Consumer confidence was thus at a level last seen during the 2008 and 2009 recession.
In October 2012 the index rose to 73.1 points, its highest level since February 2008.
For the month of December 2012 a value of 65.1 points was determined.
CCI versus US economic data
Consumer confidence in the United States is closely correlated with unemployment, inflation and real income. There is a strong connection with consumer behavior. However, the sizes do not necessarily match.
Inflation and economic growth have been calculated hedonically in the United States since 1996 . This is an attempt to quantify the quality increases of products. This leads to lower inflation rates and, depending on the state and industry, an estimated up to 30 percent higher growth figures. Social benefits are often adjusted with the rate of inflation. Wage policy is also based on the inflation rate. In Germany, a corresponding revision of the national accounts took place in 2005.
The following table compares the overall index and the individual indices (situation index and expectation index) with unemployment, underemployment and inflation. There are six different unemployment rates in the United States (U-1 through U-6), with U-3 being considered the official number and U-6 being the underemployment rate (see United States Labor Market Statistics ).
| date |
Overall index in points |
Position index in points |
Expectation index in points |
Labor unemployment in% |
Under- employment in% |
Inflation in% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 1980 | 78.6 | 59.9 | 91.1 | 7.2 | 10.1 | 12.5 |
| Dec. 31, 1985 | 98.2 | 98.2 | 98.2 | 7.0 | 10.6 | 3.8 |
| Dec 31, 1990 | 61.2 | 63.3 | 59.8 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 6.1 |
| Dec 31, 1995 | 99.2 | 109.6 | 92.3 | 5.6 | 10.0 | 2.5 |
| Dec. 31, 2000 | 128.6 | 176.1 | 96.9 | 3.9 | 6.9 | 3.4 |
| Dec 31, 2005 | 103.8 | 120.7 | 92.6 | 4.9 | 8.6 | 3.4 |
| Dec 31, 2010 | 63.4 | 28.8 | 86.5 | 9.4 | 16.6 | 1.5 |
| Dec 31, 2011 | 64.8 | 46.5 | 77.0 | 8.5 | 15.2 | 3.0 |
Best and worst months
The table shows the months with the highest and lowest values of the Consumer Confidence Index since 1967.
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Annual development
The following table shows the annual high, low, and closing levels as well as the annual average of the US Consumer Confidence Index calculated back to 1967.
| year | Peak | Lowest point | Final stand | Annual average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1967 | 140.7 | 130.1 | 136.1 | 134.8 |
| 1968 | 142.3 | 130.7 | 137.9 | 136.0 |
| 1969 | 138.2 | 126.0 | 126.0 | 133.9 |
| 1970 | 126.0 | 75.7 | 75.7 | 93.8 |
| 1971 | 85.0 | 75.2 | 85.0 | 79.6 |
| 1972 | 116.1 | 85.0 | 116.1 | 100.7 |
| 1973 | 116.1 | 70.6 | 70.6 | 102.1 |
| 1974 | 95.1 | 43.2 | 43.2 | 73.2 |
| 1975 | 93.7 | 43.2 | 93.7 | 70.3 |
| 1976 | 101.0 | 87.1 | 98.9 | 93.8 |
| 1977 | 109.7 | 93.1 | 109.7 | 98.0 |
| 1978 | 109.9 | 96.5 | 102.2 | 106.0 |
| 1979 | 101.5 | 79.4 | 90.7 | 91.9 |
| 1980 | 87.2 | 50.1 | 78.6 | 73.8 |
| 1981 | 86.9 | 66.6 | 66.6 | 77.4 |
| 1982 | 64.9 | 54.3 | 59.5 | 59.0 |
| 1983 | 103.6 | 59.0 | 103.6 | 85.7 |
| 1984 | 106.1 | 97.0 | 97.0 | 102.3 |
| 1985 | 104.4 | 96.0 | 98.2 | 100.0 |
| 1986 | 100.2 | 85.8 | 93.2 | 94.7 |
| 1987 | 115.7 | 85.4 | 107.7 | 102.6 |
| 1988 | 120.2 | 109.9 | 119.4 | 115.2 |
| 1989 | 120.7 | 113.0 | 113.0 | 116.8 |
| 1990 | 110.6 | 61.2 | 61.2 | 91.5 |
| 1991 | 81.1 | 52.5 | 52.5 | 68.5 |
| 1992 | 78.1 | 47.3 | 78.1 | 61.6 |
| 1993 | 79.8 | 58.6 | 79.8 | 65.9 |
| 1994 | 103.4 | 79.9 | 103.4 | 90.6 |
| 1995 | 104.6 | 94.6 | 99.2 | 100.0 |
| 1996 | 114.2 | 88.4 | 114.2 | 104.6 |
| 1997 | 136.2 | 118.5 | 136.2 | 125.4 |
| 1998 | 138.2 | 119.3 | 126.7 | 131.7 |
| 1999 | 141.7 | 128.9 | 141.7 | 135.3 |
| 2000 | 144.7 | 128.6 | 128.6 | 139.0 |
| 2001 | 118.9 | 84.9 | 94.6 | 106.6 |
| 2002 | 110.7 | 79.6 | 80.7 | 96.6 |
| 2003 | 94.8 | 61.4 | 94.8 | 79.8 |
| 2004 | 105.7 | 88.5 | 102.7 | 96.1 |
| 2005 | 106.2 | 85.2 | 103.8 | 100.3 |
| 2006 | 110.0 | 100.2 | 110.0 | 105.9 |
| 2007 | 111.9 | 87.8 | 90.6 | 103.4 |
| 2008 | 87.3 | 38.6 | 38.6 | 58.0 |
| 2009 | 54.8 | 25.3 | 53.6 | 45.2 |
| 2010 | 63.4 | 46.4 | 63.4 | 53.3 |
| 2011 | 72.0 | 40.9 | 64.8 | 58.1 |
| 2012¹ | 73.7 | 60.6 | 65.1 | 66.9 |
¹ December 31, 2012
Web links
Individual evidence
- ^ The Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Survey
- ↑ Markt-Daten.de: Consumer Confidence, Conference Board Consumer Confidence ( Memento of the original from September 26, 2010 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice.
- ↑ Wallstreet-online.de: US consumer confidence at a new all-time low , from February 24, 2009
- ^ Wall Street Journal, Conference Board Changes Show Higher Consumer Confidence , Feb. 14, 2011
- ↑ Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Survey Technical Note - February 2011 (PDF; 359 kB)
- ↑ Manager Magazin: US Consumer Confidence October Far Worse Than Expected October 25, 2011
- ↑ Handelsblatt: Beautified Growth Data - The American Statistics Schmu , from June 4, 2010
- ↑ Research Institute for Application-Oriented Knowledge Processing: Reales BIP ( Memento of the original from February 19, 2010 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link has been inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice.
- ↑ US Inflation Calculator: Historical US Inflation Rate
- ^ US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization
- ^ A b Duke University: Historical data 1967–2001
- ↑ a b University of Wisconsin – Madison: Historical data from 1977 ( memento of the original from October 6, 2012 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice.
- ↑ a b AAStocks: historical data from 2001
