Case-Shiller index

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Case-Shiller Index 1890-2016

The S & P / Case-Shiller Home Price Index , calculated by Standard & Poor’s , reflects the price development on the US real estate market.

concept

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index, distributed by Standard & Poor’s , is the leading real estate index in the United States. It is published monthly for various sub-markets. Here, 20 individual indices, each of which depict the development of house prices in an American metropolitan region , are aggregated into 2 groups : One index for the 10 most important regions and one index for all 20 regions. There is also a nationwide residential property index that is collected quarterly and contains 9 different US census divisions . The index family thus consists of 23 indices in total.

The concept developed by the economists Karl E. Case , Robert J. Shiller and Allan Weiss in the 1980s. Standard & Poor's has been calculating the index since 2002. Options and futures based on the Case-Shiller Index are traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange . Because the index focuses on real estate in metropolitan areas with correspondingly high prices, it is more volatile than national indices. For example, the FHFA House Price Index (formerly OFHEO House Price Index), published by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), better maps rural areas.

A disadvantage of all house price indices is that they are detailed, but due to the amount of data they are only published two months after the end of the investigation period. House price indices have a slightly negative correlation with stocks and bonds, and a slightly positive correlation with commodities and real estate investment trusts (REITs). The financial markets react sensitively to unexpected changes in the index; it is perceived as an indicator of developments in the US real estate market. Case-Shiller-Index, FHFA House Price Index or NAHB / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index belong to the group of indicators, the development of which has a noticeable influence on the stock indices .

composition

overview

  • 10-City Composite Index: The index includes house prices in the metropolitan areas of Boston, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Diego, San Francisco, and Washington DC
  • 20-City Composite Index: In addition to the prices of the 10 metropolitan regions of the 10-City Composite Index, the index also includes the prices of the regions of Atlanta, Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Minneapolis, Phoenix, Portland, Seattle and Tampa.
  • US National Home Price Index:
    • This index broadly covers 8 US states and the capital district : Connecticut, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Vermont.
    • Some data from 29 states are included: Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, California, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina , Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, and Washington.
    • Does not include data from 13 states: Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Indiana, Maine, Mississippi, Montana, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

Metropolitan regions in comparison

The table shows the highs and lows in the metropolitan regions during the real estate crisis.

Metropolitan area Peak date Lowest point date Changes in %
Boston , MA 182.45  Sep 2005 145.83  March 2009 −20.07
Chicago , IL 168.60  Sep 2006 102.76  March 2012 −39.05
Denver , CO 140.28  Aug 2006 120.21  Feb. 2009 −14.31
Las Vegas , NV 234.78  Aug 2006 89.87  March 2012 −61.72
Los Angeles , CA 273.94  Sep 2006 159.18  May 2009 −41.89
Miami , FL 280.87  Dec 2006 136.99  Apr. 2011 −51.23
New York , NY 215.83  June 2006 157.43  March 2012 −27.06
San Diego , CA 250.34  Nov 2005 144.43  Apr. 2009 −42.31
San Francisco , CA 218.37  May 2006 117.71  March 2009 −46.10
Washington, DC 251.07  May 2006 165.94  March 2009 −33.91
10-City Composite Index 226.29  June 2006 146.46  March 2012 −35.28
Atlanta , GA 136.47  July 2007 82.54  March 2012 −39.52
Charlotte , NC 135.88  Aug 2007 108.22  Feb. 2012 −20.36
Cleveland , OH 123.49  June 2006 94.22  Feb. 2012 −23.70
Dallas , TX 125.70  Aug 2006 112.26  Feb. 2009 −10.69
Detroit , MI 127.05  Dec 2005 64.47  Apr. 2011 −49.26
Minneapolis , MN 171.12  Sep 2006 105.82  March 2011 −38.16
Phoenix , AZ 227.42  June 2006 100.22  Sep 2011 −55.93
Portland , OR 186.51  July 2007 129.01  March 2012 −30.83
Seattle , WA 192.30  July 2007 128.99  Feb. 2012 −32.92
Tampa , FL 238.09  July 2006 123.91  Feb. 2012 −47.96
20-City Composite Index 206.52  July 2006 134.07  Feb. 2012 −35.08

history

Historical overview

The US National Home Price Index was first published in 1987. The calculation was carried out until 1953 (quarterly) and until 1890 (annually). From 1890 (3.66 points) to 1925 (6.50 points) house prices rose by 77.6 percent in the United States. It should be noted here that all data refer to the nominal prices in US dollars for the respective survey period, i.e. are not adjusted for inflation .

Four years before the global economic crisis began, prices began to fall. In 1933 they reached a low of 4.52 points. The decline since 1925 is 30.5 percent. In the decades that followed, the value of residential real estate in the United States rose steadily. In June 2006 the US National Home Price Index reached an all-time high of 189.93 points. Thus house prices rose by 4102 percent over the entire period. The index for 20 metropolitan regions (Composite-20) marked an all-time high in July 2006 at 206.52 points.

A long period of price increases in the real estate market had turned into a real estate bubble in the USA . With the falling property prices, the financial crisis became acute from 2007 onwards. At the same time, more and more borrowers could no longer service their loan installments, partly because of rising interest rates, partly because of a lack of income. Initially, these problems in the real estate sector primarily affected subprime loans , which were mainly granted to borrowers with low credit ratings . The speculative bubble burst. The banks stayed on their loans.

The real estate crisis caused the US government to take control of the two largest US mortgage lenders , Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac , in 2008 . There were price falls on the global stock markets. Because bad loans were resold ( securitization ) and they were scattered all over the world, the crisis spread globally due to the close interlinking of individual economies and financial flows. In March 2009 the US National Home Price Index hit a low of 129.17 points. The 20-City Composite Index reached a low of 139.26 points in April 2009.

In March 2012, the national Case Schiller index fell to 124.01 points, its lowest level since June 2002. Since the all-time high in June 2006, the decline in national house prices has been a nominal 34.7 percent. It is the biggest drop in prices on the US real estate market since 1890. The index for 20 metropolitan regions fell in February 2012 to 134.07 points, to the level of October 2002. The loss since the all-time high of July 2006 is 35.1 percent . Numerous potential homebuyers in the US were over-indebted. Because the value of their properties had fallen, they could no longer service their mortgages . Foreclosures and distress sales rose to record levels nationwide. The high unemployment rate and the strict criteria for awarding mortgages put a strain on the market.

Annual development

20-City Composite Index

Development of the Composite-10, Composite-20 and US National Home (absolute and adjusted for inflation)
Absolute development of the 20 individual indices (2000–2016)

The table shows the development of the non-seasonally adjusted data of the 20-City Composite Index since 2000.

year Peak Lowest point Final stand
2000 111.58 100.00 111.58
2001 120.53 112.39 120.43
2002 135.15 120.64 135.15
2003 150.49 135.64 150.49
2004 174.83 151.69 174.83
2005 201.97 176.44 201.97
2006 206.52 202.44 203.33
2007 202.31 184.97 184.97
2008 180.68 150.54 150.54
2009 146.63 139.26 145.89
2010 148.88 142.39 142.39
2011 142.97 136.60 136.60
2012¹ 146.17 134.07

¹ October 30, 2012

US National Home Price Index

The following shows the development of the non-seasonally adjusted data of the US National Home Price Index, calculated back to 1890.

year Points
1890 3.66
1891 3.30
1892 3.36
1893 3.50
1894 4.08
1895 3.70
1896 3.21
1897 3.31
1898 3.53
1899 3.37
1900 3.85
1901 3.23
1902 3.81
1903 3.87
1904 4.05
1905 3.55
year Points
1906 4.21
1907 4.65
1908 4.19
1909 4.10
1910 4.43
1911 4.33
1912 4.49
1913 4.49
1914 4.66
1915 4.28
1916 4.68
1917 4.78
1918 5.08
1919 5.59
1920 6.13
1921 5.99
year Points
1922 6.07
1923 6.16
1924 6.17
1925 6.50
1926 6.23
1927 6.00
1928 6.09
1929 5.97
1930 5.71
1931 5.24
1932 4.70
1933 4.52
1934 4.65
1935 5.10
1936 5.27
1937 5.40
year Points
1938 5.35
1939 5.28
1940 5.46
1941 5.00
1942 5.17
1943 5.76
1944 6.71
1945 7.50
1946 9.31
1947 11.29
1948 11.53
1949 11.54
1950 11.96
1951 12.68
1952 13.24
year Quarter I. Quarter II Quarter III Quarter IV
1953 14.66 14.71 14.76 14.77
1954 14.77 14.77 14.87 14.89
1955 14.87 14.77 14.93 14.93
1956 14.81 14.76 15.05 15.04
1957 15.18 15.34 15.34 15.46
1958 15.51 15.63 15.55 15.52
1959 15.50 15.54 15.51 15.60
1960 15.61 15.58 15.61 15.70
1961 15.67 15.64 15.71 15.78
1962 15.83 15.88 15.92 15.88
1963 15.93 16.03 16.06 16.15
1964 16.26 16.20 16.30 16.41
1965 16.52 16.44 16.47 16.64
1966 16.73 16.77 16.79 16.86
1967 16.87 16.94 17.06 17.23
1968 17.33 17.35 17.52 17.85
1969 18.21 18.43 18.79 19.17
1970 19.59 19.93 20.32 20.74
1971 20.88 21.10 21.40 21.65
1972 21.84 21.97 22.36 22.37
1973 22.35 22.41 22.61 23.02
1974 23.56 24.00 24.47 25.17
1975 26.33 26.96 26.84 27.29
1976 27.67 28.65 28.93 29.37
1977 30.33 31.72 32.43 33.54
1978 34.61 36.03 37.06 38.17
1979 39.97 41.18 42.07 42.93
1980 43.63 44.30 45.67 45.78
1981 46.07 47.17 47.81 47.96
1982 48.47 48.70 48.40 48.75
1983 49.64 50.24 50.55 50.74
1984 51.49 52.33 52.84 53.34
1985 54.09 54.94 55.88 56.55
1986 57.65 58.85 59.82 60.76
1987 62.03 64.09 65.32 66.18
1988 66.67 69.27 70.50 71.22
1989 72.43 74.40 75.22 75.37
1990 75.58 76.42 75.84 74.59
1991 73.43 74.75 75.16 74.65
1992 74.30 75.48 75.40 74.74
1993 74.46 75.48 76.06 75.91
1994 76.46 78.06 78.23 77.89
1995 77.74 79.28 79.87 79.51
1996 79.61 81.11 81.72 81.18
1997 81.82 83.55 84.37 84.80
1998 85.71 88.30 90.10 90.81
1999 92.08 94.75 97.03 98.29
2000 100.00 103.77 106.33 107.90
2001 109.27 112.69 115.50 116.23
2002 118.00 122.24 126.13 128.58
2003 130.48 134.20 138.41 142.29
2004 146.26 152.92 158.53 163.06
2005 169.19 176.70 183.08 186.97
2006 188.66 189.93 188.11 186.44
2007 184.83 183.17 180.01 170.75
2008 159.36 155.93 150.48 139.41
2009 129.17 133.19 137.51 135.99
2010 132.08 138.28 135.61 130.89
2011 125.62 130.78 130.90 125.99
2012 124.01 132.81 135.67

Web links

Individual evidence

  1. ^ Standard & Poor's: Methodology
  2. ↑ a b Standard & Poor's: Home Price Index Levels
  3. ↑ Manager Magazin: US House Prices Fall To New Low , February 28, 2012
  4. ^ Robert J. Shiller: Irrational Exuberance. Princeton University Press, Princeton 2005, ISBN 0-691-12335-7
  5. ↑ Yale University: US National Index Levels from 1890 ( MS Excel ; 156 kB)
  6. ^ Standard & Poor's: US National Index Levels since 1987