Howe Robinson Container Index
The Howe Robinson Container Index (HRCI) is maintained by the shipping broker Howe Robinson & Co. Ltd. published in London and shows the global price development on the charter market for container ships .
concept
The Howe Robinson Container Index (HRCI) represents the container market for charter rates (rental price for a ship per day) and is managed by the shipping broker Howe Robinson & Co. Ltd. published in London. The company was founded in 1883 and is one of the world's largest independent brokerage houses for container ships and bulk carriers . Howe Robinson & Co. Ltd. is a member of the Baltic Exchange in London.
A total of 14 ship classes ranging from feeder ships (510 TEU ) to Panamax class (4,300 TEU) are taken into account. An overall index is created on the basis of the individual indices. The speed as well as the minimum and maximum running time are included in the calculations. All deals concluded on the global time charter market within a week are taken into account. A weighting according to the number of ships and cost-covering charter rates takes place annually. Only the tonnage available on the shipping market is included in the index calculation.
The charter rates are determined exclusively from the information provided by ship brokers , ship owners and charterers . Only real demand and real supply for container ships are included in the price. In contrast to the economic data, the HRCI data are not subject to any subsequent changes. Manipulation is not possible with the method of determining the index.
composition
The overall HRCI index is made up of 14 individual indices. The table shows the ship types and their loading capacity in TEU , their carrying capacity in dead weight tonnage (dwt), their speed in knots (kn) and their weighting in percent.
| index | Loading capacity in TEU |
Load capacity in dwt |
Loading harness | Speed in kn |
Weighting in% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 1 | 510 | 6,500 | No | 15.0 | 2.5 |
| Class 2 | 520 | 5,500 | Yes | 15.5 | 2.5 |
| Class 3 | 650 | 9,500 | Yes | 15.0 | 5.0 |
| Class 4 | 1,000 | 12,000 | Yes | 17.5 | 2.5 |
| Class 5 | 1,100 | 13,750 | No | 19.0 | 7.5 |
| Class 6 | 1,100 | 18,500 | Yes | 19.0 | 7.5 |
| Class 7 | 1,200 | 17,000 | No | 19.0 | 10.0 |
| Class 8 | 1,600 | 25,000 | No | 18.0 | 12.5 |
| Class 9 | 1,700 | 24,000 | Yes | 19.5 | 12.5 |
| Class 10 | 2,080 | 30,000 | No | 21.5 | 7.5 |
| Class 11 | 2,500 | 34,000 | Yes | 22.0 | 10.0 |
| Class 12 | 2,800 | 35,000 | No | 22.0 | 10.0 |
| Class 13 | 3,500 | 45,000 | No | 22.5 | 5.0 |
| Class 14 | 4,300 | 55,000 | No | 24.0 | 5.0 |
Business indicator
Since the Howe Robinson Container Index (HRCI) determines the charter rates (ship rentals) for container ships, it precisely measures the demand for container transports and thus the volume of world trade today. While the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) records the freight rates of raw materials, the preliminary stage of production, the HRCI shows later stages of economic development when semi-finished or finished products have emerged from the raw materials. The Baltic Dry Index is an early indicator of economic developments, while the HRCI is an indicator of the current state of world trade and the world economy.
The BDI is heavily influenced by Chinese raw material imports and only reflects one aspect of the freight business. The HRCI, on the other hand, measures tonnage in a broader market segment, container transport. Here, it is not bulk goods such as coal and iron ore that are recorded, but consumer and industrial products. The HRCI is closer to consumption and not early cycle like the BDI.
The greater the number of containers to be shipped, the greater the demand for container ships and the higher the charter price. An upward movement in the HRCI signals an increase in global trade, a downward movement the opposite. The HRCI has a slightly positive correlation with the equity markets and a slightly negative correlation with the bond markets .
Over 90 percent of world trade, almost 95 percent of the European Union's foreign trade and almost 70 percent of German imports and exports are carried out by sea. The container ships covered by the HRCI have a 14 percent share of the shipping market.
Charter rates
The calculation of the Howe Robinson Container Index (HRCI) includes all deals made on the global time charter market that meet a defined minimum speed as well as a minimum and maximum duration. Charter deals in connection with a new ship, sale-lease-back transactions or the exercise of options are not taken into account .
With a time charter, the shipowner (owner) makes the operational, loadable and manned ship available to the charterer for a defined period of time. In international practice, a charter rate (rent) is agreed and calculated in US dollars per day of use. The owner remains responsible for the technical condition of the ship and has to maintain the ship during the period. He can carry out the ship management himself or transfer it to a third party, the so-called contract shipowner .
If the ship cannot be used during the period of use, for example due to docking or a technical defect, the ship will be “off-hire”, which means that the charterer does not pay any charter for this period. With this type of charter, the risk of delays is on the part of the charterer.
history
Historical overview
The Howe Robinson Container Index (HRCI) started on January 1, 1997 with a base value of 1,000 points. During several economic crises between 1997 and 1999 ( Asian crisis , Russian crisis , Brazilian crisis ), the index lost value. In February 1999 the HRCI stood at 595.3 points, 40.5 percent lower than in January 1997. On September 20, 2000, the index closed at 953.1 points. During the 2001/2002 recession, the HRCI fell again. On January 16, 2002, it closed at 451.4 points. This corresponds to a decrease of 52.6 percent compared to September 2000.
The increase in demand for transport services from Asia and the continued economic growth in the People's Republic of China and India caused the index to rise sharply over the next three years. On June 8, 2005, an all-time high of 2,092.6 points was achieved. This corresponds to an increase of 363.6 percent since September 2000.
The international financial crisis from 2007 onwards led to a global decrease in the demand for container transport. In December 2009 the percentage of unused container ships was 11.7 percent, the highest ever recorded. According to the ASX Alphaliner industry service, rates of around 10 percent of the global container fleet are historically high.
The HRCI began to fall two years before the financial crisis began. On October 1, 2008, it fell below the 1,000 point limit at 961.5 points. On January 7, 2009, 487.4 points were below the 500 mark. On November 25, 2009, the index fell to an all-time low of 329.4 points. Since the all-time high of June 2005, the loss has been 84.3 percent. It is the largest fall in the history of the Howe Robinson Container Index.
In 2010 there was a global economic upswing, supported by government stimulus programs and strong growth in Asia. The improvement in the general economic conditions led to an increase in charter rates for container transport. On March 30, 2011, the HRCI marked an annual high of 916.1 points. Since the low of November 2009, the profit is 178.1 percent.
The weakening of the world economy, declining economic activity in the People's Republic of China and the worsening of the euro crisis caused container transports to collapse. On February 3, 2012, the Howe Robinson Container Index stood at 456.2 points, 50.2 percent lower than in March 2011.
Ship indices in comparison
The following table compares the development of the Howe Robinson Container Index (HRCI) with four other container shipping indices since 2007. The first index is the HARPEX (Harper Petersen Charter Rates Index). It is published by the ship broker Harper Petersen & Co in Hamburg and shows the global price development on the charter market for container ships. The second index is the Container Ship Time Charter Assessment Index (ConTex), which the Vereinigung Hamburger und Bremer Schiffsmakler e. V. (VHSS) has been calculated twice a week since 2007.
The third index is the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI). It has been calculated by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange since 1998 and shows weekly the freight rates (export) of container transports that are shipped by export world champion China on standard routes around the world. The CCFI shows the development of the prices of container transports from 10 Chinese ports, including the port of Shanghai , the largest container port in the world.
With the financial crisis, global demand for goods collapsed in 2008/2009. The market for container ships almost came to a standstill due to falling freight and charter rates. There was free cargo capacity and shut down ships, which accordingly no longer brought any income. The HARPEX with -78.1 percent, the ConTex with -76.8 percent and the Howe Robinson Container Index (HRCI) with -76.6 percent recorded strong declines. The losses of the Chinese index were somewhat lower. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) fell 39.2 percent.
By mid-2010, prices had recovered from their lows during the Great Depression. With the economic slowdown, all indices fell at the end of 2011 to their lowest level since the end of 2009 / beginning of 2010. In 2012 only the freight rates in China recorded a price increase. On May 18, 2012, the CCFI marked an all-time high of 1,335.86 points. The development of HRCI, HARPEX and ConTex, on the other hand, remained weak.
The table shows the development of the charter rates of the HRCI, HARPEX and ConTex as well as the freight rates of the CCFI during the financial crisis from 2007.
| date |
Howe Robinson Container Index |
HARPEX |
ConTex |
China Containerized Freight Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2007 | 1,342.5 | 1,340.54 | 979 | 1,155.01 |
| 31 Mar 2008 | 1,383.0 | 1,372.98 | 1.006 | 1,136.75 |
| June 30, 2008 | 1,217.5 | 1,167.60 | 887 | 1,137.22 |
| Sep 30 2008 | 1,003.7 | 1,016.41 | 692 | 1,129.66 |
| Dec 31, 2008 | 501.7 | 572.21 | 367 | 946.55 |
| 31 Mar 2009 | 379.5 | 390.00 | 273 | 827.87 |
| June 30, 2009 | 346.2 | 343.89 | 250 | 763.31 |
| Sep 30 2009 | 339.0 | 385.68 | 245 | 958.87 |
| Dec 31, 2009 | 334.0 | 317.44 | 239 | 995.94 |
| 31 Mar 2010 | 372.5 | 391.98 | 283 | 1,120.12 |
| June 30, 2010 | 628.9 | 636.46 | 540 | 1,171.54 |
| Sep 30 2010 | 735.0 | 718.88 | 599 | 1,197.69 |
| Dec 31, 2010 | 676.2 | 679.37 | 555 | 1,053.93 |
| 31 Mar 2011 | 916.1 | 900.99 | 716 | 1018.25 |
| June 30, 2011 | 883.0 | 831.40 | 679 | 981.65 |
| Sep 30 2011 | 659.5 | 555.10 | 508 | 975.61 |
| Dec 31, 2011 | 485.1 | 388.57 | 409 | 881.15 |
| 31 Mar 2012 | 469.9 | 394.78 | 390 | 1,135.11 |
| June 30, 2012 | 502.7 | 434.96 | 407 | 1,307.31 |
| Sep 30 2012 | 475.8 | 377.80 | 375 | 1,214.62 |
| Dec 31, 2012 | 457.1 | 351.70 | 353 | 1,113.58 |
Annual development
The following are the annual highs, lows, and closings as well as the annual performance of the Howe Robinson Container Index since 1997.
| year | Peak | Lowest point | Final stand | Change in% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 1,000.0 | |||
| 1997 | 1,000.0 | 856.1 | 856.1 | −16.8 |
| 1998 | 830.9 | 629.8 | 629.8 | −26.4 |
| 1999 | 757.0 | 595.3 | 696.8 | 10.6 |
| 2000 | 953.1 | 709.0 | 790.4 | 13.4 |
| 2001 | 830.2 | 465.3 | 465.3 | −41.1 |
| 2002 | 669.4 | 451.4 | 633.0 | 36.0 |
| 2003 | 1,143.3 | 621.7 | 1,080.6 | 70.7 |
| 2004 | 1,883.7 | 1,096.8 | 1,883.7 | 74.3 |
| 2005 | 2,092.6 | 1,884.4 | 1,292.0 | −31.4 |
| 2006 | 1,358.0 | 1,022.1 | 1,022.1 | −20.9 |
| 2007 | 1,406.2 | 1,010.9 | 1,342.5 | 31.3 |
| 2008 | 1,383.0 | 501.7 | 501.7 | −62.6 |
| 2009 | 487.4 | 329.4 | 334.0 | −33.4 |
| 2010 | 735.0 | 334.6 | 676.2 | 102.5 |
| 2011 | 916.1 | 485.1 | 485.1 | −28.3 |
| 2012¹ | 514.1 | 456.2 |
¹ December 31, 2012
Web links
- Data at the Korea Maritime Institute (KMI)
- Korea Shipowners' Association (KSA) data
- Data and chart at the Korea Shipping Gazette (KSG)
- Data and charts at Lloyd's List
- Chart at Ocean Partners Shipping
Individual evidence
- ↑ Ocean Partners Shipping: Howe Robinson Group ( Memento of the original from July 3, 2010 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice.
- ↑ Carsten Rehder: Howe Robinson Container Index ( memento of the original from February 15, 2013 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was automatically inserted and not yet checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice.
- ↑ Finance and Economy: The world is about the seas. Presentation on April 1, 2009
- ↑ Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung: Ship fund providers try new concepts , November 18, 2009
- ^ Chamber of Commerce and Industry North: Connected to the world - The national importance of the German seaports , February 25, 2009
- ^ Gunther Dütsch: Forward Freight Agreements (FFA) , presentation, Vattenfall Trading Services, June 2007
- ↑ Invest Media GmbH: Baltic Freight Index leads on the wrong track , presentation of December 21, 2009
- ↑ a b c Korea Maritime Institute: Howe Robinson Container Index ( Memento of the original from May 22, 2012 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice.
- ↑ Asia Courier: China's ports conquer the world’s top ( page no longer available , search in web archives ) Info: The link was automatically marked as defective. Please check the link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. , dated February 1, 2011
- ↑ Panlv.Net: China & Shanghai Containerized Freight Index ( Memento of the original from January 20, 2016 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. ( MS Excel ; 12.1 MB)
- ↑ Harper Petersen: HARPEX
- ^ Association of Hamburg ship brokers and shipping agents : ConTex
- ^ Shanghai Shipping Exchange: China Containerized Freight Index
